IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-8.8	#317
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.0	#207
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.1	#299

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.7	#314

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.9%	8.2%	3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.6	15.4	15.7

.500 or above	30.8%	50.5%	24.2%
.500 or above in Conference	49.6%	62.8%	45.2%
Conference Champion	6.4%	10.5%	5.1%
Last Place in Conference	10.6%	5.6%	12.2%

First Four	2.2%	2.9%	2.0%
First Round	3.7%	6.6%	2.7%
Second Round	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Texas San Antonio (Away) - 25.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 3	1 - 3	1 - 6
Quad 4	11 - 10	11 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	249	@ Texas San Antonio	L	70-77	25%
Nov 08, 2023	101	@ SMU	L	64-80	6%
Nov 17, 2023	321	Southern	W	74-71	62%
Nov 21, 2023	310	@ Valparaiso	L	68-72	37%
Nov 24, 2023	21	@ Illinois	L	61-86	1%
Nov 27, 2023	28	@ Wisconsin	L	53-77	2%
Dec 03, 2023	304	South Dakota	W	71-69	57%
Dec 09, 2023	340	@ Green Bay	L	68-69	47%
Dec 20, 2023	336	@ Central Arkansas	L	77-78	47%
Dec 31, 2023	259	@ SIU Edwardsville	L	69-76	29%
Jan 04, 2024	308	Southeast Missouri St.	W	77-75	58%
Jan 06, 2024	356	Lindenwood	W	75-67	75%
Jan 11, 2024	282	@ Tennessee Martin	L	74-79	34%
Jan 13, 2024	332	@ Eastern Illinois	L	70-71	46%
Jan 20, 2024	262	Tennessee St.	L	75-76	49%
Jan 25, 2024	344	@ Southern Indiana	L	73-74	50%
Jan 27, 2024	220	@ Morehead St.	L	61-70	23%
Feb 01, 2024	356	@ Lindenwood	W	72-70	57%
Feb 03, 2024	308	@ Southeast Missouri St.	L	74-78	38%
Feb 08, 2024	275	Arkansas Little Rock	W	77-76	51%
Feb 10, 2024	282	Tennessee Martin	W	77-76	53%
Feb 15, 2024	289	@ Tennessee Tech	L	68-73	34%
Feb 17, 2024	262	@ Tennessee St.	L	72-78	30%
Feb 22, 2024	220	Morehead St.	L	64-67	41%
Feb 24, 2024	344	Southern Indiana	W	77-71	69%
Feb 29, 2024	332	Eastern Illinois	W	73-68	65%
Mar 02, 2024	259	SIU Edwardsville	L	72-73	48%
Projected Record						11 - 16	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.1	0.5	1.2	1.8	1.5	1.0	0.4	0.1		6.4	1st
2nd											0.1	0.9	2.3	2.7	1.5	0.4	0.1				7.9	2nd
3rd										0.1	1.0	3.2	3.0	1.2	0.2	0.0					8.8	3rd
4th								0.0	0.1	1.1	3.7	3.7	1.0	0.1							9.8	4th
5th								0.0	0.9	3.8	4.1	1.2	0.1								10.2	5th
6th							0.0	0.8	4.1	4.5	1.3	0.1									10.9	6th
7th						0.0	0.9	3.8	4.6	1.5	0.1										11.0	7th
8th					0.0	0.9	3.3	4.2	1.6	0.1	0.0										10.1	8th
9th				0.1	1.1	3.2	3.8	1.6	0.1	0.0											9.9	9th
10th		0.0	0.3	1.3	2.9	2.8	1.1	0.1	0.0												8.5	10th
11th	0.2	0.8	1.7	1.9	1.4	0.5	0.1	0.0													6.5	11th

Total	0.2	0.8	2.0	3.3	5.5	7.4	9.3	10.5	11.4	11.2	10.3	9.2	6.9	5.2	3.5	1.9	1.0	0.4	0.1			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.4		0.4	0.0
16-2	94.1%	1.0		0.9	0.1
15-3	81.1%	1.5		1.2	0.4	0.0
14-4	51.5%	1.8		0.9	0.7	0.1	0.0
13-5	22.6%	1.2		0.3	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0
12-6	6.7%	0.5		0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.5%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0						0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	6.4%	6.4		3.8	1.9	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		46.4%	46.4%		13.6													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
17-1	0.4%		53.1%	53.1%		13.9												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.2
16-2	1.0%		41.1%	41.1%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.6
15-3	1.9%		28.4%	28.4%		15.2														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	1.3
14-4	3.5%		20.9%	20.9%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	2.7
13-5	5.2%		16.2%	16.2%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.7	4.4
12-6	6.9%		10.8%	10.8%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.6	6.1
11-7	9.2%		6.0%	6.0%		15.9																0.0	0.5	8.6
10-8	10.3%		3.8%	3.8%		16.0																0.0	0.4	9.9
9-9	11.2%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0																0.0	0.2	11.0
8-10	11.4%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	11.3
7-11	10.5%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	10.4
6-12	9.3%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	9.3
5-13	7.4%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	7.4
4-14	5.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	5.5
3-15	3.3%																							3.3
2-16	2.0%																							2.0
1-17	0.8%																							0.8
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		4.9%	4.9%	0.0%	15.6												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	3.4	95.1		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%