Preseason Rankings
North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.9#61
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.0#75
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#38
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#86
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.1% 2.1% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 6.2% 6.3% 0.8%
Top 6 Seed 11.8% 12.0% 1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.8% 35.4% 12.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 31.2% 31.8% 10.5%
Average Seed 7.6 7.6 9.2
.500 or above 78.2% 79.1% 47.1%
.500 or above in Conference 58.1% 58.8% 33.9%
Conference Champion 5.2% 5.3% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 4.0% 11.9%
First Four4.7% 4.8% 3.2%
First Round32.3% 32.9% 11.1%
Second Round18.7% 19.1% 4.5%
Sweet Sixteen7.8% 8.0% 0.9%
Elite Eight3.3% 3.4% 0.6%
Final Four1.3% 1.4% 0.3%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Home) - 97.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 7
Quad 24 - 47 - 10
Quad 35 - 212 - 12
Quad 46 - 018 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 320   The Citadel W 85-64 97%    
  Nov 10, 2023 168   Abilene Christian W 82-70 86%    
  Nov 17, 2023 328   Charleston Southern W 85-63 98%    
  Nov 23, 2023 87   Vanderbilt W 76-73 61%    
  Nov 28, 2023 60   @ Mississippi L 71-74 39%    
  Dec 02, 2023 103   @ Boston College W 74-72 56%    
  Dec 06, 2023 342   Maryland Eastern Shore W 84-61 98%    
  Dec 12, 2023 282   Tennessee Martin W 90-71 95%    
  Dec 16, 2023 7   Tennessee L 66-73 26%    
  Dec 20, 2023 102   Saint Louis W 82-74 75%    
  Dec 23, 2023 265   Detroit Mercy W 86-68 93%    
  Jan 03, 2024 133   @ Notre Dame W 74-70 62%    
  Jan 06, 2024 34   Virginia W 66-65 52%    
  Jan 10, 2024 16   North Carolina L 76-78 43%    
  Jan 13, 2024 124   @ Louisville W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 16, 2024 64   Wake Forest W 80-76 62%    
  Jan 20, 2024 57   Virginia Tech W 76-73 59%    
  Jan 24, 2024 34   @ Virginia L 62-68 32%    
  Jan 27, 2024 75   @ Syracuse L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 30, 2024 30   Miami (FL) L 78-79 50%    
  Feb 03, 2024 98   Georgia Tech W 77-70 72%    
  Feb 07, 2024 69   Pittsburgh W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 10, 2024 64   @ Wake Forest L 77-79 42%    
  Feb 17, 2024 45   @ Clemson L 73-77 36%    
  Feb 20, 2024 75   Syracuse W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 24, 2024 103   Boston College W 77-69 74%    
  Feb 27, 2024 85   @ Florida St. L 77-78 49%    
  Mar 02, 2024 16   @ North Carolina L 73-81 26%    
  Mar 04, 2024 3   Duke L 69-75 32%    
  Mar 09, 2024 69   @ Pittsburgh L 74-76 44%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 5.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.1 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 6.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 8.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.8 3.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.7 3.0 0.5 0.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.3 3.2 0.8 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.6 1.2 0.1 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 7.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.0 1.9 0.3 6.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.4 14th
15th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.5 15th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.3 5.8 7.5 8.8 10.1 10.3 10.3 9.7 8.4 6.8 5.0 3.8 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 98.5% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 85.2% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
17-3 65.3% 1.4    0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 37.9% 1.5    0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 14.2% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 2.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 39.1% 60.9% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 1.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.1% 99.6% 24.2% 75.4% 2.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
17-3 2.2% 99.8% 18.0% 81.8% 3.4 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-4 3.8% 98.5% 13.9% 84.6% 4.7 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.3%
15-5 5.0% 96.7% 10.6% 86.0% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 96.3%
14-6 6.8% 87.5% 8.7% 78.8% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.9 86.3%
13-7 8.4% 73.3% 8.3% 65.0% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 2.2 70.9%
12-8 9.7% 52.0% 6.1% 45.9% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 4.7 48.9%
11-9 10.3% 29.8% 4.1% 25.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 26.8%
10-10 10.3% 13.1% 3.5% 9.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9 9.9%
9-11 10.1% 4.1% 2.8% 1.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.6 1.3%
8-12 8.8% 2.2% 2.1% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.6 0.1%
7-13 7.5% 1.5% 1.5% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4
6-14 5.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8
5-15 4.3% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.3
4-16 2.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.7
3-17 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-18 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 34.8% 5.2% 29.6% 7.6 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.5 4.1 4.6 5.4 4.2 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 65.2 31.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 80.4 19.6