IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Drexel
Colonial Athletic
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	+2.5	#125
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	60.9	#340
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.2	#184

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.7	#94

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.3%	0.5%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	14.3%	17.8%	10.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.7%	1.2%	0.2%
Average Seed	12.7	12.4	13.4

.500 or above	83.6%	91.4%	74.5%
.500 or above in Conference	89.0%	92.7%	84.8%
Conference Champion	17.6%	22.0%	12.5%
Last Place in Conference	0.4%	0.2%	0.6%

First Four	0.6%	0.7%	0.5%
First Round	14.0%	17.5%	9.9%
Second Round	2.8%	3.9%	1.5%
Sweet Sixteen	0.8%	1.2%	0.5%
Elite Eight	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Final Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: La Salle (Away) - 53.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 3	4 - 4	5 - 8
Quad 4	13 - 3	19 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2023	199	@ La Salle	W	67-66	54%
Nov 11, 2023	189	@ Winthrop	W	68-67	51%
Nov 14, 2023	138	Temple	W	65-61	63%
Nov 17, 2023	257	Fairfield	W	67-56	84%
Nov 19, 2023	224	Queens	W	74-65	78%
Nov 26, 2023	180	@ Old Dominion	L	61-62	50%
Nov 29, 2023	293	@ Lafayette	W	63-57	72%
Dec 05, 2023	130	@ Princeton	L	65-68	40%
Dec 09, 2023	63	@ West Virginia	L	63-72	21%
Dec 16, 2023	318	Albany	W	73-59	89%
Dec 22, 2023	208	@ Bryant	W	73-71	55%
Jan 01, 2024	312	Hampton	W	75-61	88%
Jan 04, 2024	140	UNC Wilmington	W	65-61	62%
Jan 06, 2024	302	@ William & Mary	W	67-60	73%
Jan 11, 2024	352	@ N.C. A&T	W	73-61	84%
Jan 13, 2024	309	@ Elon	W	68-60	74%
Jan 18, 2024	311	Monmouth	W	72-58	88%
Jan 20, 2024	194	Delaware	W	69-62	71%
Jan 25, 2024	158	@ Towson	L	62-63	46%
Jan 27, 2024	352	N.C. A&T	W	76-58	93%
Feb 01, 2024	311	@ Monmouth	W	69-61	74%
Feb 08, 2024	140	@ UNC Wilmington	L	62-64	42%
Feb 10, 2024	80	@ College of Charleston	L	67-74	28%
Feb 15, 2024	112	Hofstra	W	67-65	56%
Feb 17, 2024	294	Campbell	W	69-57	84%
Feb 22, 2024	112	@ Hofstra	L	64-68	36%
Feb 26, 2024	194	@ Delaware	W	66-65	53%
Feb 29, 2024	255	Stony Brook	W	67-56	81%
Mar 02, 2024	228	Northeastern	W	68-59	77%
Projected Record						19 - 10	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.6	2.5	5.1	5.3	3.1	0.9		17.6	1st
2nd												0.1	1.1	4.4	6.9	4.7	1.3	0.1			18.5	2nd
3rd											0.0	1.1	4.6	6.5	3.2	0.4	0.0				15.7	3rd
4th										0.0	0.7	4.0	5.8	2.3	0.2	0.0					13.0	4th
5th									0.0	0.4	2.9	4.7	1.9	0.2							10.2	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	1.9	3.8	1.7	0.2								7.9	6th
7th								0.1	1.0	2.8	1.4	0.2	0.0								5.7	7th
8th							0.0	0.6	1.8	1.5	0.2	0.0									4.1	8th
9th						0.0	0.3	1.2	1.2	0.3	0.0										3.0	9th
10th					0.0	0.1	0.7	0.9	0.2	0.0											1.9	10th
11th				0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.2	0.0												1.2	11th
12th			0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0													0.8	12th
13th			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0														0.4	13th
14th		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0															0.1	14th

Total		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.5	0.9	1.8	3.0	4.6	6.9	9.2	11.8	13.5	14.0	12.7	10.3	6.7	3.2	0.9			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.9		0.9
17-1	97.8%	3.1		2.8	0.3
16-2	80.1%	5.3		3.8	1.4	0.1
15-3	50.1%	5.1		2.3	2.2	0.6	0.0
14-4	19.6%	2.5		0.6	1.1	0.6	0.1	0.0
13-5	4.5%	0.6		0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	17.6%	17.6		10.5	5.3	1.5	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.9%		74.3%	56.1%	18.2%	8.4		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.2		41.4%
17-1	3.2%		52.0%	43.2%	8.8%	10.9					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0		1.5		15.4%
16-2	6.7%		36.9%	34.1%	2.7%	12.1									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.6	1.1	0.6	0.1	0.0		4.2		4.1%
15-3	10.3%		25.2%	25.1%	0.1%	12.7											0.0	0.2	1.0	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0	7.7		0.1%
14-4	12.7%		18.5%	18.5%		13.1												0.1	0.5	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	10.3
13-5	14.0%		13.1%	13.1%		13.6												0.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.3	0.0	12.1
12-6	13.5%		9.2%	9.2%		14.0												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.1	12.3
11-7	11.8%		6.7%	6.7%		14.6													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	11.0
10-8	9.2%		4.3%	4.3%		15.1													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	8.8
9-9	6.9%		2.6%	2.6%		15.3															0.0	0.1	0.1	6.8
8-10	4.6%		2.1%	2.1%		15.9																0.0	0.1	4.5
7-11	3.0%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.0
6-12	1.8%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.0	1.7
5-13	0.9%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	0.9
4-14	0.5%																							0.5
3-15	0.1%																							0.1
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18

Total	100%		14.3%	13.6%	0.6%	12.7		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	1.6	3.4	3.7	2.6	1.4	0.6	85.7		0.7%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	98.7%	3.8	0.7	20.9	18.3	34.6	11.8	11.8			0.7