Preseason Rankings
Florida
Southeastern
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.3#36
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.7#62
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#51
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#28
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
#1 Seed 2.8% 2.9% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 6.7% 6.8% 2.0%
Top 4 Seed 16.6% 16.9% 2.9%
Top 6 Seed 27.7% 28.2% 6.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.3% 56.0% 24.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 52.3% 53.0% 21.7%
Average Seed 6.4 6.4 8.1
.500 or above 82.3% 83.1% 51.6%
.500 or above in Conference 58.3% 58.9% 33.3%
Conference Champion 6.9% 7.1% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 5.5% 5.3% 14.0%
First Four4.7% 4.7% 5.0%
First Round53.0% 53.7% 22.4%
Second Round34.9% 35.4% 12.3%
Sweet Sixteen16.5% 16.8% 4.9%
Elite Eight7.6% 7.7% 2.5%
Final Four3.5% 3.6% 1.4%
Championship Game1.5% 1.5% 0.5%
National Champion0.7% 0.7% 0.2%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Home) - 97.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 8
Quad 25 - 39 - 10
Quad 34 - 113 - 11
Quad 45 - 019 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 295   Loyola Maryland W 81-60 98%    
  Nov 10, 2023 34   Virginia L 63-64 50%    
  Nov 14, 2023 343   Florida A&M W 80-54 99%    
  Nov 17, 2023 85   Florida St. W 79-71 77%    
  Nov 22, 2023 69   Pittsburgh W 75-71 62%    
  Nov 29, 2023 64   @ Wake Forest L 76-77 50%    
  Dec 05, 2023 330   Merrimack W 78-54 98%    
  Dec 09, 2023 129   Richmond W 74-65 78%    
  Dec 14, 2023 146   East Carolina W 77-67 80%    
  Dec 19, 2023 48   Michigan W 73-72 55%    
  Dec 22, 2023 253   Grambling St. W 78-59 95%    
  Dec 30, 2023 232   Quinnipiac W 84-66 94%    
  Jan 06, 2024 13   Kentucky L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 10, 2024 60   @ Mississippi L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 13, 2024 17   Arkansas W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 16, 2024 7   @ Tennessee L 64-72 25%    
  Jan 20, 2024 52   @ Missouri L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 24, 2024 37   Mississippi St. W 67-64 60%    
  Jan 27, 2024 73   Georgia W 77-70 72%    
  Jan 31, 2024 13   @ Kentucky L 69-76 29%    
  Feb 03, 2024 22   @ Texas A&M L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 10, 2024 23   Auburn W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 13, 2024 56   LSU W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 17, 2024 73   @ Georgia W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 21, 2024 12   @ Alabama L 76-83 28%    
  Feb 24, 2024 87   Vanderbilt W 77-68 76%    
  Feb 28, 2024 52   Missouri W 79-74 66%    
  Mar 02, 2024 89   @ South Carolina W 70-67 59%    
  Mar 05, 2024 12   Alabama L 79-80 47%    
  Mar 09, 2024 87   @ Vanderbilt W 74-71 58%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 6.9 1st
2nd 0.2 1.3 2.8 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.6 2.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 8.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.0 2.8 0.6 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.7 3.3 0.7 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.3 1.1 0.1 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 4.6 1.8 0.1 8.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 4.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 8.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.3 3.1 0.6 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.5 1.0 0.0 7.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.0 1.4 0.1 6.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.9 1.1 0.2 4.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.1 14th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.4 3.9 5.6 7.7 9.6 10.9 11.4 11.5 10.3 8.7 6.5 4.7 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.6% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 91.1% 1.3    1.1 0.2 0.0
15-3 72.7% 2.2    1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 37.7% 1.8    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.8% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.9% 6.9 3.9 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 49.0% 51.0% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 30.3% 69.7% 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.5% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.0% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 2.2 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.7% 100.0% 12.2% 87.8% 3.1 0.5 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 6.5% 99.6% 12.1% 87.4% 4.2 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
12-6 8.7% 97.7% 9.6% 88.1% 5.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.5%
11-7 10.3% 93.2% 7.9% 85.3% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.7 92.6%
10-8 11.5% 80.5% 6.3% 74.2% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.0 1.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.3 79.2%
9-9 11.4% 59.3% 4.3% 55.0% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.6 57.5%
8-10 10.9% 30.9% 3.2% 27.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 28.7%
7-11 9.6% 10.2% 3.0% 7.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 7.4%
6-12 7.7% 3.4% 2.4% 1.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.4 1.1%
5-13 5.6% 1.8% 1.7% 0.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.5 0.1%
4-14 3.9% 1.4% 1.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
3-15 2.4% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.4
2-16 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1
1-17 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 55.3% 6.3% 49.0% 6.4 2.8 3.8 4.7 5.3 5.2 5.9 5.7 6.2 5.5 5.4 3.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 44.7 52.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 87.7 12.3