Preseason Rankings
Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#221
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.3#278
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#246
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#208
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 3.9% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.6
.500 or above 31.6% 41.4% 17.8%
.500 or above in Conference 26.0% 31.3% 18.5%
Conference Champion 2.7% 3.7% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 32.5% 26.7% 40.7%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 0.7%
First Round2.8% 3.6% 1.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Home) - 58.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 74 - 13
Quad 47 - 411 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 210   Utah Tech W 53-51 58%    
  Nov 14, 2023 63   @ West Virginia L 63-77 9%    
  Nov 18, 2023 223   @ North Alabama L 69-72 39%    
  Nov 22, 2023 348   @ Incarnate Word W 71-65 72%    
  Nov 24, 2023 249   @ Texas San Antonio L 71-72 45%    
  Nov 26, 2023 348   Incarnate Word W 73-64 79%    
  Nov 30, 2023 177   South Alabama W 66-65 51%    
  Dec 03, 2023 239   East Tennessee St. W 68-64 63%    
  Dec 08, 2023 244   Illinois-Chicago W 72-67 65%    
  Dec 14, 2023 28   @ Wisconsin L 54-72 6%    
  Dec 18, 2023 214   @ Tarleton St. L 64-68 38%    
  Dec 21, 2023 275   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 75-74 51%    
  Jan 06, 2024 196   Florida International W 72-71 55%    
  Jan 10, 2024 84   @ Liberty L 59-71 15%    
  Jan 13, 2024 172   @ Western Kentucky L 65-71 31%    
  Jan 20, 2024 120   Louisiana Tech L 66-69 41%    
  Jan 24, 2024 137   @ Middle Tennessee L 63-71 25%    
  Jan 27, 2024 84   Liberty L 62-68 30%    
  Feb 01, 2024 155   @ UTEP L 62-69 28%    
  Feb 03, 2024 167   @ New Mexico St. L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 08, 2024 117   Sam Houston St. L 62-65 41%    
  Feb 10, 2024 172   Western Kentucky L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 15, 2024 120   @ Louisiana Tech L 63-72 23%    
  Feb 21, 2024 137   Middle Tennessee L 66-68 44%    
  Feb 24, 2024 196   @ Florida International L 69-74 35%    
  Feb 29, 2024 155   UTEP L 65-66 47%    
  Mar 02, 2024 167   New Mexico St. L 70-71 49%    
  Mar 09, 2024 117   @ Sam Houston St. L 59-68 23%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.1 0.6 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.6 2.9 0.6 0.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.6 3.9 0.8 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 5.1 4.6 0.8 0.0 12.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.6 5.3 1.1 0.1 14.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 4.1 6.9 4.8 1.2 0.1 18.2 8th
9th 1.7 4.7 6.6 6.4 3.4 0.7 0.0 23.4 9th
Total 1.7 4.8 7.6 10.7 12.7 12.6 12.7 11.2 9.1 6.8 4.5 2.8 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-2 92.7% 0.3    0.3 0.0
13-3 82.2% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
12-4 50.4% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-5 22.5% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 3.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.1% 54.1% 40.1% 14.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.3%
14-2 0.3% 37.4% 35.6% 1.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.7%
13-3 0.9% 26.8% 25.8% 0.9% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.3%
12-4 1.6% 15.9% 15.9% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
11-5 2.8% 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0%
10-6 4.5% 9.4% 9.4% 13.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.0
9-7 6.8% 5.7% 5.7% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.4
8-8 9.1% 4.6% 4.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.7
7-9 11.2% 3.3% 3.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.8
6-10 12.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 12.5
5-11 12.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 12.5
4-12 12.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 12.6
3-13 10.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 10.7
2-14 7.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.6
1-15 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.7
0-16 1.7% 1.7
Total 100% 3.1% 3.0% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 96.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%