Preseason Rankings
Marshall
Sun Belt
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.0#135
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace78.3#14
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#113
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#181
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.6% 16.2% 8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 1.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.6 13.7
.500 or above 71.2% 76.9% 50.7%
.500 or above in Conference 77.1% 80.4% 65.2%
Conference Champion 18.5% 20.8% 10.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.6% 3.8%
First Four1.2% 1.2% 1.1%
First Round14.2% 15.8% 8.3%
Second Round2.6% 3.1% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Queens (Home) - 78.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 57 - 9
Quad 49 - 316 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 224   Queens W 86-78 78%    
  Nov 10, 2023 182   Radford W 75-72 60%    
  Nov 19, 2023 83   Utah St. L 77-81 35%    
  Nov 24, 2023 13   @ Kentucky L 69-85 8%    
  Dec 02, 2023 260   Miami (OH) W 83-73 82%    
  Dec 06, 2023 94   Duquesne L 79-80 50%    
  Dec 09, 2023 127   @ Ohio L 79-82 39%    
  Dec 13, 2023 132   @ Toledo L 83-86 39%    
  Dec 16, 2023 119   UNC Greensboro W 74-72 57%    
  Dec 21, 2023 140   UNC Wilmington W 75-72 61%    
  Dec 30, 2023 176   Louisiana W 81-76 67%    
  Jan 03, 2024 287   @ Louisiana Monroe W 77-71 69%    
  Jan 06, 2024 193   @ Texas St. W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 10, 2024 229   Georgia Southern W 79-71 76%    
  Jan 13, 2024 177   South Alabama W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 18, 2024 180   @ Old Dominion L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 20, 2024 121   @ James Madison L 80-84 38%    
  Jan 24, 2024 206   Georgia St. W 80-73 72%    
  Jan 27, 2024 152   Southern Miss W 80-76 63%    
  Feb 01, 2024 180   Old Dominion W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 03, 2024 270   Coastal Carolina W 85-74 82%    
  Feb 07, 2024 218   @ Troy W 77-75 55%    
  Feb 15, 2024 153   @ Appalachian St. L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 17, 2024 270   @ Coastal Carolina W 82-77 66%    
  Feb 21, 2024 121   James Madison W 83-81 58%    
  Feb 24, 2024 153   Appalachian St. W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 28, 2024 229   @ Georgia Southern W 76-74 58%    
  Mar 01, 2024 206   @ Georgia St. W 77-76 54%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.2 5.1 4.3 2.1 0.7 18.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.7 4.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 13.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.6 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.3 3.3 0.8 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.6 3.6 0.8 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.8 1.1 0.1 7.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.5 1.6 0.1 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.4 0.4 5.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 2.3 0.7 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.1 5.9 7.7 9.1 10.8 11.4 11.4 10.6 9.4 6.9 4.6 2.1 0.7 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
17-1 99.4% 2.1    2.0 0.1
16-2 93.8% 4.3    3.6 0.7 0.0
15-3 74.4% 5.1    3.3 1.6 0.2
14-4 44.4% 4.2    1.8 1.8 0.6 0.0
13-5 16.2% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.5% 18.5 11.8 5.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 76.0% 52.7% 23.3% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 49.3%
17-1 2.1% 59.5% 48.5% 10.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 21.2%
16-2 4.6% 43.7% 40.4% 3.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.6 5.4%
15-3 6.9% 32.7% 31.3% 1.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.6 2.0%
14-4 9.4% 24.7% 24.4% 0.3% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.1 0.3%
13-5 10.6% 18.5% 18.5% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 8.7 0.0%
12-6 11.4% 13.6% 13.6% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 9.8
11-7 11.4% 9.1% 9.1% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 10.4
10-8 10.8% 6.3% 6.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 10.1
9-9 9.1% 4.7% 4.7% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 8.7
8-10 7.7% 4.2% 4.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.4
7-11 5.9% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.8
6-12 4.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 4.0
5-13 2.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.5
4-14 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.6% 13.9% 0.7% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.7 3.5 3.5 2.4 1.4 1.1 85.4 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.1 44.4 2.8 30.6 2.8 19.4