Preseason Rankings
Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#143
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace58.4#357
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#177
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#116
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.2% 15.0% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 2.4% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.6 11.7 12.9
.500 or above 63.2% 82.7% 58.9%
.500 or above in Conference 67.3% 80.8% 64.4%
Conference Champion 8.8% 14.6% 7.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 0.7% 2.2%
First Four0.9% 1.3% 0.8%
First Round8.8% 14.3% 7.6%
Second Round1.8% 3.7% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 1.1% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Virginia (Away) - 17.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 32 - 6
Quad 35 - 56 - 11
Quad 410 - 216 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 63   @ West Virginia L 61-71 18%    
  Nov 13, 2023 175   Oral Roberts W 72-67 67%    
  Nov 17, 2023 159   Florida Gulf Coast W 65-64 54%    
  Nov 25, 2023 345   South Carolina St. W 78-62 93%    
  Nov 29, 2023 329   Evansville W 72-58 90%    
  Dec 02, 2023 70   @ Drake L 59-68 22%    
  Dec 05, 2023 137   @ Middle Tennessee L 62-65 39%    
  Dec 09, 2023 117   Sam Houston St. W 61-59 56%    
  Dec 16, 2023 233   @ Tulsa W 66-64 58%    
  Dec 19, 2023 356   Lindenwood W 74-56 94%    
  Dec 23, 2023 26   @ St. Mary's L 51-65 12%    
  Jan 03, 2024 123   Northern Iowa W 66-64 57%    
  Jan 06, 2024 100   @ Bradley L 58-64 31%    
  Jan 10, 2024 154   Murray St. W 67-63 63%    
  Jan 13, 2024 329   @ Evansville W 69-61 76%    
  Jan 16, 2024 122   @ Indiana St. L 66-70 37%    
  Jan 20, 2024 209   Illinois St. W 66-59 72%    
  Jan 24, 2024 70   Drake L 62-65 41%    
  Jan 27, 2024 310   @ Valparaiso W 67-60 72%    
  Jan 31, 2024 171   @ Southern Illinois L 59-60 45%    
  Feb 03, 2024 128   Belmont W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 07, 2024 123   @ Northern Iowa L 63-67 38%    
  Feb 10, 2024 122   Indiana St. W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 14, 2024 154   @ Murray St. L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 17, 2024 310   Valparaiso W 70-57 86%    
  Feb 21, 2024 100   Bradley W 62-61 50%    
  Feb 24, 2024 128   @ Belmont L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 28, 2024 209   @ Illinois St. W 63-62 53%    
  Mar 03, 2024 244   Illinois-Chicago W 70-61 77%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.4 2.2 1.4 0.6 0.1 8.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.0 3.6 1.9 0.6 0.1 10.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.1 3.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 11.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.4 3.8 1.2 0.1 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.8 3.6 1.0 0.1 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.4 3.6 1.0 0.1 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.3 3.3 0.8 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.5 2.6 0.7 0.1 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.9 2.0 0.5 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.7 4.5 6.1 7.7 9.2 10.5 11.4 10.6 10.0 8.6 6.6 4.6 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 95.4% 1.4    1.2 0.1
17-3 77.2% 2.2    1.6 0.6 0.0
16-4 52.6% 2.4    1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
15-5 22.5% 1.5    0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 5.4 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 87.6% 60.9% 26.7% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.3%
19-1 0.6% 77.2% 50.0% 27.2% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 54.4%
18-2 1.4% 51.3% 37.8% 13.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 21.7%
17-3 2.9% 38.2% 31.2% 7.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 10.1%
16-4 4.6% 24.3% 22.0% 2.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 3.5 2.9%
15-5 6.6% 18.3% 17.7% 0.5% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.4 0.6%
14-6 8.6% 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 7.5 0.1%
13-7 10.0% 9.7% 9.7% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.1
12-8 10.6% 7.5% 7.5% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 9.8
11-9 11.4% 5.6% 5.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 10.7
10-10 10.5% 3.8% 3.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 10.1
9-11 9.2% 3.1% 3.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.0
8-12 7.7% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.5
7-13 6.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 6.0
6-14 4.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.4
5-15 2.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.7
4-16 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-17 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.2% 8.5% 0.7% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.3 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.7 90.8 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.6 25.0 25.0 21.9 25.0 3.1