Preseason Rankings
Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#154
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.8#213
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#129
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#198
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.3% 8.0% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 13.9
.500 or above 64.4% 69.1% 39.7%
.500 or above in Conference 62.4% 65.4% 46.5%
Conference Champion 7.1% 7.9% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 1.9% 5.4%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
First Round7.0% 7.7% 3.3%
Second Round1.4% 1.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 84.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 66 - 11
Quad 410 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 289   Tennessee Tech W 77-66 84%    
  Nov 14, 2023 172   Western Kentucky W 73-69 64%    
  Nov 20, 2023 140   UNC Wilmington L 68-69 47%    
  Nov 22, 2023 153   Appalachian St. L 67-68 49%    
  Nov 29, 2023 100   Bradley L 67-68 48%    
  Dec 03, 2023 209   @ Illinois St. L 69-70 50%    
  Dec 09, 2023 236   @ Austin Peay W 70-68 56%    
  Dec 13, 2023 37   @ Mississippi St. L 59-72 12%    
  Dec 16, 2023 268   SE Louisiana W 80-70 80%    
  Dec 18, 2023 275   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 80-76 64%    
  Dec 22, 2023 101   SMU L 73-74 49%    
  Dec 30, 2023 137   Middle Tennessee W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 02, 2024 244   Illinois-Chicago W 77-69 76%    
  Jan 06, 2024 329   @ Evansville W 76-68 74%    
  Jan 10, 2024 143   @ Missouri St. L 63-67 37%    
  Jan 14, 2024 123   Northern Iowa W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 17, 2024 244   @ Illinois-Chicago W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 21, 2024 122   Indiana St. W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 24, 2024 100   @ Bradley L 64-71 29%    
  Jan 27, 2024 171   Southern Illinois W 67-63 63%    
  Jan 30, 2024 209   Illinois St. W 72-66 69%    
  Feb 03, 2024 123   @ Northern Iowa L 69-74 35%    
  Feb 07, 2024 128   @ Belmont L 72-77 36%    
  Feb 10, 2024 329   Evansville W 79-65 87%    
  Feb 14, 2024 143   Missouri St. W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 18, 2024 70   @ Drake L 65-75 22%    
  Feb 21, 2024 171   @ Southern Illinois L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 24, 2024 310   Valparaiso W 76-64 84%    
  Feb 28, 2024 128   Belmont W 75-74 55%    
  Mar 03, 2024 122   @ Indiana St. L 73-78 35%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 7.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.7 3.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.9 3.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.0 3.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.6 3.6 0.9 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.5 3.6 0.8 0.1 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.4 3.4 0.8 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.8 3.1 0.8 0.1 9.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.8 3.3 2.2 0.6 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 6.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.4 4.9 6.8 8.5 10.2 10.7 10.9 10.1 9.3 7.5 5.7 3.9 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 96.3% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 90.7% 1.2    1.1 0.2
17-3 73.6% 1.7    1.2 0.5 0.0
16-4 48.3% 1.9    1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 21.9% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.5% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 4.2 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 93.7% 56.3% 37.3% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.5%
19-1 0.5% 73.0% 48.3% 24.8% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 47.9%
18-2 1.3% 51.6% 36.1% 15.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 24.3%
17-3 2.3% 32.2% 28.0% 4.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 5.9%
16-4 3.9% 22.8% 21.6% 1.2% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 3.0 1.6%
15-5 5.7% 16.4% 16.3% 0.1% 12.6 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.8 0.2%
14-6 7.5% 12.7% 12.6% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.1%
13-7 9.3% 7.2% 7.2% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.7
12-8 10.1% 6.5% 6.5% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 9.5
11-9 10.9% 4.7% 4.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 10.4
10-10 10.7% 3.0% 3.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.3
9-11 10.2% 1.9% 1.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.0
8-12 8.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.4
7-13 6.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.7
6-14 4.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.0 4.9
5-15 3.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.4
4-16 2.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.1
3-17 1.0% 1.0
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.3% 6.8% 0.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.6 92.7 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%