Preseason Rankings
North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.9#16
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.4#93
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#15
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#37
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.8% 1.9% 0.3%
#1 Seed 7.8% 8.2% 1.2%
Top 2 Seed 16.7% 17.3% 4.4%
Top 4 Seed 33.4% 34.6% 11.3%
Top 6 Seed 47.7% 49.2% 20.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 75.2% 76.4% 52.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 71.0% 72.3% 47.7%
Average Seed 5.4 5.4 7.2
.500 or above 89.2% 90.4% 68.0%
.500 or above in Conference 85.1% 85.9% 68.9%
Conference Champion 19.0% 19.6% 8.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 1.3%
First Four4.2% 4.1% 5.6%
First Round73.2% 74.5% 49.7%
Second Round53.7% 54.9% 29.7%
Sweet Sixteen29.5% 30.4% 13.6%
Elite Eight15.3% 15.9% 6.0%
Final Four7.7% 8.0% 2.4%
Championship Game3.8% 4.0% 0.9%
National Champion1.8% 1.9% 0.4%

Next Game: Radford (Home) - 94.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 6
Quad 25 - 210 - 8
Quad 35 - 115 - 9
Quad 44 - 020 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 182   Radford W 79-62 95%    
  Nov 12, 2023 274   Lehigh W 87-64 98%    
  Nov 17, 2023 202   UC Riverside W 82-63 96%    
  Nov 22, 2023 123   Northern Iowa W 80-69 85%    
  Nov 29, 2023 7   Tennessee W 69-68 52%    
  Dec 02, 2023 85   Florida St. W 82-71 83%    
  Dec 05, 2023 6   Connecticut L 72-75 41%    
  Dec 16, 2023 13   Kentucky L 73-74 46%    
  Dec 20, 2023 53   Oklahoma W 73-68 65%    
  Dec 29, 2023 328   Charleston Southern W 87-60 99%    
  Jan 02, 2024 69   @ Pittsburgh W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 06, 2024 45   @ Clemson W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 10, 2024 61   @ North Carolina St. W 78-76 57%    
  Jan 13, 2024 75   Syracuse W 80-70 79%    
  Jan 17, 2024 124   Louisville W 81-67 89%    
  Jan 20, 2024 103   @ Boston College W 76-69 71%    
  Jan 22, 2024 64   Wake Forest W 83-74 76%    
  Jan 27, 2024 85   @ Florida St. W 79-74 65%    
  Jan 30, 2024 98   @ Georgia Tech W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 03, 2024 3   Duke L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 06, 2024 45   Clemson W 78-71 71%    
  Feb 10, 2024 30   @ Miami (FL) L 77-78 46%    
  Feb 13, 2024 75   @ Syracuse W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 17, 2024 57   Virginia Tech W 78-70 74%    
  Feb 24, 2024 34   @ Virginia L 65-66 49%    
  Feb 26, 2024 30   Miami (FL) W 80-75 65%    
  Mar 02, 2024 61   North Carolina St. W 81-73 74%    
  Mar 05, 2024 133   Notre Dame W 79-64 89%    
  Mar 09, 2024 3   @ Duke L 68-75 30%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.9 5.3 4.6 2.5 0.7 19.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.9 4.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 16.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.0 3.7 1.1 0.1 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.7 2.8 0.6 0.1 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.1 2.5 0.5 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.3 0.5 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.3 0.6 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.6 4.0 5.3 7.1 8.5 10.1 11.2 11.5 10.8 9.9 7.8 5.0 2.5 0.7 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 99.8% 2.5    2.4 0.1
18-2 90.7% 4.6    3.7 0.8 0.0
17-3 68.3% 5.3    3.4 1.7 0.3 0.0
16-4 39.7% 3.9    1.8 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0
15-5 14.8% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.0% 19.0 12.4 5.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 100.0% 48.3% 51.7% 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.5% 100.0% 38.8% 61.2% 1.4 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 5.0% 100.0% 33.1% 66.9% 1.7 2.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 7.8% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 2.3 1.9 2.9 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 9.9% 99.8% 22.5% 77.3% 3.3 0.9 2.2 2.8 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-5 10.8% 99.6% 18.4% 81.2% 4.4 0.3 1.0 2.2 2.6 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
14-6 11.5% 97.4% 13.7% 83.7% 5.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.0%
13-7 11.2% 92.6% 11.2% 81.5% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.8 91.7%
12-8 10.1% 79.4% 9.0% 70.4% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 2.1 77.4%
11-9 8.5% 63.3% 8.0% 55.3% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.1 60.1%
10-10 7.1% 35.2% 6.0% 29.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 31.1%
9-11 5.3% 15.1% 4.9% 10.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 10.8%
8-12 4.0% 5.2% 3.8% 1.4% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.8 1.4%
7-13 2.6% 1.7% 1.3% 0.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.3%
6-14 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.5
5-15 0.9% 2.2% 2.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.8
4-16 0.5% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 75.2% 14.5% 60.7% 5.4 7.8 8.9 8.5 8.3 7.3 7.0 6.4 5.9 5.4 5.1 3.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 24.8 71.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 88.8 11.2