Preseason Rankings
Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#231
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.2#202
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#172
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#282
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.7% 17.9% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 13.2 14.5
.500 or above 38.2% 74.7% 37.6%
.500 or above in Conference 57.6% 79.9% 57.3%
Conference Champion 9.6% 22.8% 9.4%
Last Place in Conference 6.2% 1.0% 6.2%
First Four1.4% 1.3% 1.4%
First Round7.1% 16.8% 6.9%
Second Round0.6% 2.7% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Connecticut (Away) - 1.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 411 - 614 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 6   @ Connecticut L 61-84 2%    
  Nov 12, 2023 93   @ Grand Canyon L 64-76 14%    
  Nov 15, 2023 126   @ Seattle L 68-77 20%    
  Nov 17, 2023 305   Purdue Fort Wayne W 76-72 65%    
  Nov 22, 2023 142   @ Hawaii L 63-71 23%    
  Nov 29, 2023 150   @ UC Santa Barbara L 66-74 25%    
  Dec 02, 2023 188   Pacific W 76-75 51%    
  Dec 06, 2023 168   @ Abilene Christian L 71-78 28%    
  Dec 09, 2023 348   @ Incarnate Word W 75-69 70%    
  Dec 16, 2023 226   Southern Utah W 80-77 60%    
  Dec 20, 2023 92   @ San Francisco L 68-80 16%    
  Dec 30, 2023 251   @ Northern Colorado L 75-77 44%    
  Jan 03, 2024 296   @ Nebraska Omaha W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 06, 2024 267   North Dakota W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 11, 2024 225   @ Montana St. L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 13, 2024 181   @ Montana L 66-72 31%    
  Jan 18, 2024 211   Portland St. W 79-77 56%    
  Jan 20, 2024 252   Sacramento St. W 69-65 64%    
  Jan 25, 2024 354   @ Idaho W 75-68 71%    
  Jan 27, 2024 169   @ Eastern Washington L 72-79 29%    
  Feb 01, 2024 160   Weber St. L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 03, 2024 290   Idaho St. W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 08, 2024 181   Montana W 70-69 50%    
  Feb 10, 2024 225   Montana St. W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 15, 2024 252   @ Sacramento St. L 66-68 45%    
  Feb 17, 2024 211   @ Portland St. L 76-80 36%    
  Feb 22, 2024 169   Eastern Washington L 75-76 48%    
  Feb 24, 2024 354   Idaho W 78-65 85%    
  Feb 29, 2024 290   @ Idaho St. W 70-69 51%    
  Mar 02, 2024 160   @ Weber St. L 65-72 28%    
  Mar 04, 2024 251   Northern Colorado W 78-74 63%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 2.7 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 9.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.2 3.6 1.8 0.6 0.0 10.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 4.4 3.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 11.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.0 3.6 1.0 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 5.1 3.5 0.8 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.2 3.7 0.6 0.0 12.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.8 3.0 0.6 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 3.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.4 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.5 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.5 3.9 5.7 7.8 9.9 10.9 11.4 11.1 10.0 8.5 6.8 4.7 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 97.6% 1.4    1.3 0.1
15-3 80.8% 2.4    1.8 0.6 0.0
14-4 57.9% 2.7    1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 25.9% 1.7    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1
12-6 6.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.6% 9.6 5.8 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 56.7% 56.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.5% 51.4% 50.5% 0.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7%
16-2 1.5% 44.1% 43.9% 0.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.5%
15-3 3.0% 32.2% 32.2% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.0
14-4 4.7% 24.3% 24.3% 14.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 3.5
13-5 6.8% 18.6% 18.6% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 5.5
12-6 8.5% 12.1% 12.1% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 7.5
11-7 10.0% 8.4% 8.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 9.1
10-8 11.1% 5.2% 5.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 10.5
9-9 11.4% 3.3% 3.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 11.0
8-10 10.9% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3 10.6
7-11 9.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 9.7
6-12 7.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.8
5-13 5.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.7
4-14 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.9
3-15 2.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.5
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.2 92.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%