Preseason Rankings
San Francisco
West Coast
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#92
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.8#114
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#90
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#105
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.5% 1.5% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.7% 12.9% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.8% 5.9% 0.9%
Average Seed 10.2 10.1 13.3
.500 or above 75.8% 76.6% 37.2%
.500 or above in Conference 70.3% 70.8% 46.8%
Conference Champion 6.8% 6.9% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 3.7% 8.3%
First Four2.2% 2.2% 1.1%
First Round11.7% 11.9% 2.9%
Second Round4.6% 4.7% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.5% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Home) - 98.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 22 - 33 - 7
Quad 35 - 38 - 11
Quad 49 - 117 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 358   St. Francis (PA) W 85-63 98%    
  Nov 12, 2023 54   @ Boise St. L 67-74 26%    
  Nov 17, 2023 93   Grand Canyon W 71-70 50%    
  Nov 22, 2023 305   Purdue Fort Wayne W 82-66 93%    
  Nov 26, 2023 113   Minnesota W 71-69 56%    
  Dec 03, 2023 65   @ Arizona St. L 69-75 30%    
  Dec 06, 2023 87   @ Vanderbilt L 71-74 38%    
  Dec 11, 2023 299   New Orleans W 87-71 92%    
  Dec 13, 2023 126   Seattle W 76-70 69%    
  Dec 16, 2023 83   Utah St. L 74-75 47%    
  Dec 20, 2023 231   Northern Arizona W 80-68 84%    
  Dec 22, 2023 111   Fresno St. W 70-65 65%    
  Dec 30, 2023 361   Mississippi Valley W 84-58 99%    
  Jan 04, 2024 188   @ Pacific W 78-75 60%    
  Jan 11, 2024 227   @ San Diego W 79-73 68%    
  Jan 13, 2024 174   Portland W 82-74 76%    
  Jan 18, 2024 116   Loyola Marymount W 76-71 66%    
  Jan 20, 2024 26   St. Mary's L 63-67 36%    
  Jan 25, 2024 10   @ Gonzaga L 73-86 14%    
  Jan 27, 2024 174   @ Portland W 79-77 58%    
  Feb 01, 2024 227   San Diego W 82-70 83%    
  Feb 03, 2024 188   Pacific W 81-72 77%    
  Feb 08, 2024 191   @ Pepperdine W 81-78 61%    
  Feb 10, 2024 144   Santa Clara W 80-73 71%    
  Feb 17, 2024 116   @ Loyola Marymount L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 20, 2024 26   @ St. Mary's L 60-70 20%    
  Feb 24, 2024 191   Pepperdine W 84-75 78%    
  Feb 29, 2024 10   Gonzaga L 76-83 28%    
  Mar 02, 2024 144   @ Santa Clara W 77-76 52%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 2.1 1.0 0.2 6.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.9 5.5 3.4 0.6 15.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.1 8.7 6.8 2.8 0.3 25.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 6.1 7.0 3.1 0.5 0.0 18.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 5.4 4.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 13.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.2 2.8 0.7 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 2.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.9 9th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.1 5.3 8.1 10.3 12.6 13.6 13.5 11.5 9.3 5.8 2.7 1.0 0.2 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 1.0    0.9 0.1
14-2 77.1% 2.1    1.3 0.7 0.0
13-3 36.4% 2.1    0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-4 11.4% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0
11-5 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 6.8% 6.8 3.7 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 94.9% 40.6% 54.3% 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.4%
15-1 1.0% 87.4% 35.7% 51.6% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 80.3%
14-2 2.7% 71.6% 26.4% 45.2% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 61.5%
13-3 5.8% 48.8% 19.2% 29.6% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.0 36.6%
12-4 9.3% 25.8% 12.8% 12.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.9 14.9%
11-5 11.5% 14.8% 10.7% 4.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.8 4.6%
10-6 13.5% 8.1% 7.4% 0.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.4 0.7%
9-7 13.6% 4.6% 4.5% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.9 0.1%
8-8 12.6% 3.6% 3.5% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.2 0.1%
7-9 10.3% 2.7% 2.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.0
6-10 8.1% 1.8% 1.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.0
5-11 5.3% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 5.2
4-12 3.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
3-13 1.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.8
2-14 0.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 12.7% 7.3% 5.4% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.7 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.3 87.3 5.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.8 43.2 38.6 18.2