Preseason Rankings
St. Mary's
West Coast
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.5#26
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace58.3#358
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#54
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#14
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
#1 Seed 3.3% 4.2% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 7.4% 9.2% 2.5%
Top 4 Seed 17.0% 20.9% 6.7%
Top 6 Seed 26.5% 31.8% 12.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 60.9% 67.1% 44.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 43.4% 50.5% 27.2%
Average Seed 7.1 6.8 8.3
.500 or above 97.4% 98.7% 93.9%
.500 or above in Conference 96.9% 97.8% 94.6%
Conference Champion 38.9% 42.2% 30.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four5.6% 5.8% 5.1%
First Round58.4% 64.5% 42.3%
Second Round38.1% 43.4% 24.2%
Sweet Sixteen19.4% 22.9% 10.3%
Elite Eight9.6% 11.5% 4.6%
Final Four4.5% 5.4% 2.1%
Championship Game2.1% 2.6% 0.9%
National Champion0.9% 1.1% 0.3%

Next Game: New Mexico (Home) - 72.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 3
Quad 24 - 26 - 4
Quad 39 - 215 - 6
Quad 48 - 022 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 55   New Mexico W 73-67 72%    
  Nov 12, 2023 160   Weber St. W 68-53 92%    
  Nov 17, 2023 31   San Diego St. W 61-60 52%    
  Nov 24, 2023 149   Davidson W 69-55 90%    
  Nov 27, 2023 62   Utah W 65-58 73%    
  Dec 01, 2023 54   Boise St. W 64-61 61%    
  Dec 05, 2023 187   Cleveland St. W 71-55 92%    
  Dec 09, 2023 71   @ Colorado St. W 65-63 57%    
  Dec 16, 2023 91   UNLV W 70-63 73%    
  Dec 19, 2023 137   Middle Tennessee W 70-56 88%    
  Dec 21, 2023 183   Northern Kentucky W 66-50 91%    
  Dec 23, 2023 143   Missouri St. W 65-51 88%    
  Dec 29, 2023 107   Kent St. W 70-58 84%    
  Jan 04, 2024 227   @ San Diego W 73-60 86%    
  Jan 06, 2024 116   @ Loyola Marymount W 68-62 71%    
  Jan 11, 2024 174   Portland W 76-60 90%    
  Jan 13, 2024 144   @ Santa Clara W 71-63 75%    
  Jan 20, 2024 92   @ San Francisco W 67-63 64%    
  Jan 25, 2024 188   Pacific W 75-59 91%    
  Jan 27, 2024 116   Loyola Marymount W 71-59 85%    
  Jan 31, 2024 144   Santa Clara W 74-60 87%    
  Feb 03, 2024 10   @ Gonzaga L 66-72 32%    
  Feb 06, 2024 188   @ Pacific W 72-62 81%    
  Feb 10, 2024 174   @ Portland W 73-63 79%    
  Feb 15, 2024 191   Pepperdine W 78-61 91%    
  Feb 20, 2024 92   San Francisco W 70-60 80%    
  Feb 24, 2024 227   San Diego W 76-57 94%    
  Feb 29, 2024 191   @ Pepperdine W 75-64 80%    
  Mar 02, 2024 10   Gonzaga W 70-69 51%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.3 6.6 12.4 12.0 5.1 38.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.5 11.5 11.2 5.4 37.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.4 4.5 1.9 0.2 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.6 3.0 5.3 8.2 11.7 15.8 18.0 17.8 12.0 5.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 5.1    5.1
15-1 100.0% 12.0    10.3 1.8
14-2 69.7% 12.4    8.1 4.3 0.1
13-3 36.7% 6.6    3.3 3.0 0.4 0.0
12-4 14.7% 2.3    0.7 1.2 0.4 0.0
11-5 3.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 38.9% 38.9 27.5 10.4 1.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 5.1% 99.5% 65.4% 34.1% 2.3 1.8 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.5%
15-1 12.0% 97.1% 53.0% 44.2% 4.0 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 93.9%
14-2 17.8% 88.9% 40.7% 48.2% 6.4 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.0 81.3%
13-3 18.0% 73.7% 32.4% 41.2% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 4.7 61.0%
12-4 15.8% 51.9% 23.5% 28.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.1 2.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 7.6 37.1%
11-5 11.7% 33.5% 18.2% 15.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.8 18.8%
10-6 8.2% 21.3% 14.9% 6.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.5 7.5%
9-7 5.3% 14.1% 12.3% 1.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 2.1%
8-8 3.0% 8.7% 8.6% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.1%
7-9 1.6% 6.3% 6.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
6-10 0.9% 4.5% 4.5% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
5-11 0.3% 2.7% 2.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
4-12 0.2% 0.2
3-13 0.1% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 60.9% 30.9% 30.0% 7.1 3.3 4.1 4.5 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.4 5.3 7.6 9.0 2.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 39.1 43.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 1.6 55.9 33.9 8.1 1.8 0.3