Preseason Rankings
Texas A&M - Commerce
Southland
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#291
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.7#273
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#272
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#292
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.4% 26.6% 13.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 45.7% 79.6% 45.1%
.500 or above in Conference 70.2% 88.3% 69.9%
Conference Champion 16.7% 31.5% 16.5%
Last Place in Conference 4.5% 1.3% 4.6%
First Four5.3% 4.5% 5.4%
First Round10.5% 24.3% 10.3%
Second Round0.3% 1.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M (Away) - 1.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 21 - 7
Quad 412 - 813 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 22   @ Texas A&M L 57-80 2%    
  Nov 08, 2023 41   @ Texas Tech L 58-79 3%    
  Nov 10, 2023 13   @ Kentucky L 57-82 1%    
  Nov 12, 2023 305   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 70-72 42%    
  Nov 17, 2023 136   @ Saint Joseph's L 65-77 14%    
  Nov 20, 2023 350   Stonehill W 73-64 78%    
  Nov 26, 2023 307   Denver W 74-70 64%    
  Dec 03, 2023 101   @ SMU L 64-78 11%    
  Dec 11, 2023 251   Northern Colorado W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 01, 2024 24   @ TCU L 60-83 3%    
  Jan 06, 2024 271   McNeese St. W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 08, 2024 299   @ New Orleans L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 13, 2024 360   Houston Christian W 81-70 82%    
  Jan 15, 2024 348   Incarnate Word W 74-65 76%    
  Jan 20, 2024 268   @ SE Louisiana L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 22, 2024 341   @ Lamar W 68-67 55%    
  Jan 27, 2024 284   Nicholls St. W 75-72 59%    
  Jan 29, 2024 283   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-70 59%    
  Feb 03, 2024 337   @ Northwestern St. W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 05, 2024 271   @ McNeese St. L 68-72 38%    
  Feb 10, 2024 299   New Orleans W 77-73 62%    
  Feb 12, 2024 268   SE Louisiana W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 17, 2024 283   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 19, 2024 348   @ Incarnate Word W 71-68 58%    
  Feb 24, 2024 284   @ Nicholls St. L 72-75 40%    
  Mar 02, 2024 360   @ Houston Christian W 78-73 66%    
  Mar 04, 2024 341   Lamar W 71-64 73%    
  Mar 06, 2024 337   Northwestern St. W 73-66 72%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.5 4.2 4.3 2.9 1.4 0.3 16.7 1st
2nd 0.2 1.5 4.4 4.7 2.9 0.9 0.1 14.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 5.0 4.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 13.6 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 5.2 4.1 1.0 0.1 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.9 3.5 0.6 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.2 2.9 0.5 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.6 1.5 0.3 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.7 5.5 7.2 8.9 10.4 11.4 11.3 10.8 9.0 7.3 5.2 3.0 1.4 0.3 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
16-2 96.6% 2.9    2.7 0.2
15-3 83.5% 4.3    3.3 1.0 0.1
14-4 57.4% 4.2    2.3 1.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 27.9% 2.5    0.9 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
12-6 8.0% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.7% 16.7 11.0 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 80.2% 80.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.4% 67.4% 67.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.5
16-2 3.0% 55.8% 55.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 1.3
15-3 5.2% 42.6% 42.6% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.0 3.0
14-4 7.3% 32.0% 32.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 5.0
13-5 9.0% 22.3% 22.3% 15.8 0.1 0.3 1.6 7.0
12-6 10.8% 14.9% 14.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.4 9.2
11-7 11.3% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1 10.1
10-8 11.4% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.0 0.7 10.7
9-9 10.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.3 10.1
8-10 8.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 8.8
7-11 7.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 7.1
6-12 5.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.5
5-13 3.7% 3.7
4-14 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.4
3-15 1.3% 1.3
2-16 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.3 8.5 86.6 0.0%