Preseason Rankings
Texas Arlington
Western Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#200
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.3#259
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#227
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#174
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 6.9% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.4 14.3
.500 or above 29.9% 39.5% 17.5%
.500 or above in Conference 46.9% 54.2% 37.4%
Conference Champion 5.6% 7.2% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 11.0% 8.1% 14.8%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.1%
First Round5.1% 6.6% 3.3%
Second Round0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oral Roberts (Home) - 56.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 8
Quad 34 - 65 - 14
Quad 47 - 312 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 175   Oral Roberts W 75-73 56%    
  Nov 16, 2023 55   @ New Mexico L 69-83 10%    
  Nov 19, 2023 11   @ Arizona L 66-86 4%    
  Nov 22, 2023 281   Alcorn St. W 72-64 76%    
  Nov 25, 2023 193   Texas St. W 65-62 60%    
  Nov 29, 2023 168   Abilene Christian W 71-70 54%    
  Dec 02, 2023 93   @ Grand Canyon L 62-72 19%    
  Dec 16, 2023 166   Air Force L 63-65 44%    
  Dec 21, 2023 41   @ Texas Tech L 61-76 10%    
  Dec 23, 2023 90   @ North Texas L 53-63 20%    
  Jan 01, 2024 15   @ Texas L 60-79 6%    
  Jan 04, 2024 214   @ Tarleton St. L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 06, 2024 115   @ Stephen F. Austin L 67-75 26%    
  Jan 11, 2024 164   Utah Valley W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 13, 2024 126   Seattle L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 18, 2024 263   UT Rio Grande Valley W 78-71 72%    
  Jan 20, 2024 168   @ Abilene Christian L 68-73 35%    
  Jan 27, 2024 93   Grand Canyon L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 01, 2024 226   @ Southern Utah L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 03, 2024 210   @ Utah Tech L 51-53 43%    
  Feb 08, 2024 186   @ California Baptist L 63-67 38%    
  Feb 10, 2024 115   Stephen F. Austin L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 15, 2024 214   Tarleton St. W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 17, 2024 263   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 22, 2024 226   Southern Utah W 77-72 65%    
  Feb 24, 2024 210   Utah Tech W 54-50 62%    
  Feb 29, 2024 126   @ Seattle L 66-73 29%    
  Mar 02, 2024 164   @ Utah Valley L 68-73 34%    
  Mar 07, 2024 186   California Baptist W 66-64 58%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.4 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 7.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.5 3.1 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 8.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.4 3.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.7 3.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.9 4.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.0 4.0 1.2 0.1 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.0 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.8 3.7 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.3 2.3 0.8 0.1 9.5 10th
11th 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.0 11th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.7 4.3 6.3 8.0 9.3 9.9 10.4 10.1 9.4 7.9 6.6 5.0 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 98.3% 0.5    0.5 0.1
17-3 84.4% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
16-4 63.7% 1.5    0.9 0.5 0.1
15-5 38.0% 1.3    0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 15.0% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 3.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 3.3 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 72.7% 39.4% 33.3% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 55.0%
19-1 0.2% 61.0% 48.4% 12.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 24.3%
18-2 0.5% 39.8% 31.7% 8.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 11.8%
17-3 1.2% 33.0% 29.1% 4.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 5.6%
16-4 2.3% 25.2% 24.9% 0.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.7 0.5%
15-5 3.5% 20.1% 19.9% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.8 0.2%
14-6 5.0% 14.8% 14.8% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.3
13-7 6.6% 10.0% 10.0% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 5.9
12-8 7.9% 8.1% 8.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 7.3
11-9 9.4% 5.1% 5.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 8.9
10-10 10.1% 3.1% 3.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.8
9-11 10.4% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.1
8-12 9.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.7
7-13 9.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 9.2
6-14 8.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 7.9
5-15 6.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.3
4-16 4.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.3
3-17 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.7
2-18 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 5.5% 5.4% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.2 94.5 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%