Preseason Rankings
Texas
Big 12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.3#15
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.7#116
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#23
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#17
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.8% 1.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 7.7% 7.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 16.0% 16.0% 2.0%
Top 4 Seed 32.4% 32.4% 8.4%
Top 6 Seed 46.5% 46.6% 13.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.6% 72.7% 40.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 69.6% 69.7% 39.1%
Average Seed 5.4 5.3 7.4
.500 or above 94.8% 94.8% 79.2%
.500 or above in Conference 73.2% 73.2% 45.8%
Conference Champion 12.2% 12.3% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 2.6% 6.7%
First Four3.8% 3.8% 2.5%
First Round70.8% 70.9% 38.4%
Second Round53.2% 53.2% 29.0%
Sweet Sixteen30.0% 30.1% 7.4%
Elite Eight16.0% 16.1% 6.4%
Final Four8.4% 8.4% 4.2%
Championship Game4.2% 4.2% 0.0%
National Champion2.1% 2.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 25 - 29 - 8
Quad 35 - 114 - 9
Quad 47 - 021 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 348   Incarnate Word W 87-57 99.8%   
  Nov 10, 2023 355   Delaware St. W 86-55 99.8%   
  Nov 15, 2023 178   Rice W 86-68 95%    
  Nov 19, 2023 124   Louisville W 78-66 85%    
  Nov 26, 2023 163   Wyoming W 79-62 94%    
  Nov 30, 2023 193   Texas St. W 76-57 95%    
  Dec 06, 2023 9   @ Marquette L 73-77 35%    
  Dec 09, 2023 360   Houston Christian W 94-62 99.7%   
  Dec 16, 2023 56   LSU W 73-68 67%    
  Dec 22, 2023 283   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 87-63 98%    
  Dec 29, 2023 119   UNC Greensboro W 76-62 89%    
  Jan 01, 2024 200   Texas Arlington W 79-60 94%    
  Jan 06, 2024 41   Texas Tech W 75-68 71%    
  Jan 09, 2024 58   @ Cincinnati W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 13, 2024 63   @ West Virginia W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 17, 2024 81   Central Florida W 73-62 82%    
  Jan 20, 2024 14   Baylor W 75-72 59%    
  Jan 23, 2024 53   @ Oklahoma W 70-68 56%    
  Jan 27, 2024 50   @ BYU W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 29, 2024 4   Houston W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 03, 2024 24   @ TCU L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 06, 2024 40   Iowa St. W 69-63 70%    
  Feb 10, 2024 63   West Virginia W 79-70 76%    
  Feb 17, 2024 4   @ Houston L 65-70 33%    
  Feb 19, 2024 32   Kansas St. W 77-72 68%    
  Feb 24, 2024 1   @ Kansas L 70-78 26%    
  Feb 27, 2024 41   @ Texas Tech W 72-71 52%    
  Mar 02, 2024 59   Oklahoma St. W 74-66 75%    
  Mar 04, 2024 14   @ Baylor L 72-75 40%    
  Mar 09, 2024 53   Oklahoma W 73-65 74%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 3.6 2.9 1.4 0.4 12.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.5 4.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 4.8 3.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.4 3.7 0.9 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.0 3.6 0.8 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.4 2.9 3.8 1.1 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 3.9 1.5 0.1 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.4 1.9 0.2 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.3 0.4 5.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.4 0.8 0.0 4.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 0.9 0.1 3.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.9 0.1 2.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.7 6.8 8.9 10.0 11.2 11.7 11.4 10.1 7.9 5.6 3.4 1.4 0.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 97.8% 1.4    1.3 0.1
16-2 86.1% 2.9    2.3 0.6 0.0
15-3 65.1% 3.6    2.2 1.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 33.5% 2.6    1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 10.4% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.2% 12.2 7.4 3.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 28.5% 71.5% 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.4% 100.0% 34.4% 65.6% 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.4% 100.0% 24.3% 75.7% 1.4 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.6% 100.0% 19.1% 80.9% 1.9 2.1 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.9% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 2.7 1.3 2.6 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 10.1% 99.9% 14.8% 85.0% 3.6 0.6 1.5 2.9 2.6 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-6 11.4% 99.1% 11.7% 87.4% 4.9 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.6 2.5 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.0%
11-7 11.7% 95.8% 8.3% 87.5% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 2.4 2.3 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 95.5%
10-8 11.2% 86.9% 7.6% 79.4% 7.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.2 1.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 1.5 85.9%
9-9 10.0% 69.6% 5.8% 63.8% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.1 3.1 67.7%
8-10 8.9% 37.9% 3.9% 34.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.5 35.4%
7-11 6.8% 13.5% 3.1% 10.4% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 10.7%
6-12 4.7% 3.7% 2.2% 1.5% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 1.5%
5-13 3.1% 1.9% 1.8% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.1%
4-14 1.8% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.7
3-15 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.0
2-16 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 72.6% 9.8% 62.8% 5.4 7.7 8.3 8.3 8.1 7.4 6.8 6.5 5.9 5.0 4.8 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 27.4 69.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 87.4 12.6