Preseason Rankings
Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.4#82
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.6#142
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#141
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#44
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.7% 1.8% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 3.2% 3.4% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.2% 21.1% 8.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.1% 8.7% 1.8%
Average Seed 10.0 9.9 11.9
.500 or above 86.6% 88.4% 64.9%
.500 or above in Conference 78.0% 79.5% 59.7%
Conference Champion 18.0% 18.8% 8.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.4% 4.2%
First Four2.7% 2.8% 1.0%
First Round19.0% 19.9% 8.4%
Second Round7.9% 8.4% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen2.9% 3.0% 0.5%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: McNeese St. (Home) - 92.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 33 - 5
Quad 37 - 310 - 9
Quad 49 - 119 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 271   McNeese St. W 78-63 92%    
  Nov 10, 2023 165   Samford W 76-67 80%    
  Nov 15, 2023 182   Radford W 71-61 82%    
  Nov 18, 2023 126   Seattle W 73-66 73%    
  Nov 23, 2023 40   Iowa St. L 61-66 34%    
  Dec 01, 2023 248   Norfolk St. W 75-61 89%    
  Dec 06, 2023 27   Memphis L 73-76 39%    
  Dec 10, 2023 281   Alcorn St. W 77-61 92%    
  Dec 16, 2023 138   Temple W 71-63 74%    
  Dec 22, 2023 342   Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-57 97%    
  Dec 30, 2023 195   Gardner-Webb W 72-61 82%    
  Jan 03, 2024 78   St. Bonaventure W 68-65 59%    
  Jan 06, 2024 238   George Washington W 80-67 87%    
  Jan 09, 2024 139   @ George Mason W 68-66 55%    
  Jan 13, 2024 199   @ La Salle W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 19, 2024 102   Saint Louis W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 23, 2024 96   Loyola Chicago W 70-65 64%    
  Jan 27, 2024 149   @ Davidson W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 30, 2024 78   @ St. Bonaventure L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 03, 2024 129   Richmond W 70-63 72%    
  Feb 06, 2024 162   @ Fordham W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 09, 2024 72   Dayton W 64-62 57%    
  Feb 16, 2024 102   @ Saint Louis L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 20, 2024 192   @ Massachusetts W 76-71 65%    
  Feb 25, 2024 136   Saint Joseph's W 75-68 73%    
  Feb 28, 2024 190   Rhode Island W 73-63 80%    
  Mar 02, 2024 129   @ Richmond W 67-66 53%    
  Mar 05, 2024 94   Duquesne W 73-69 64%    
  Mar 08, 2024 72   @ Dayton L 61-65 37%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.0 5.2 4.1 2.3 0.8 18.0 1st
2nd 0.2 1.9 4.5 4.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 13.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.6 3.9 1.0 0.1 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.1 3.6 0.8 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.3 3.0 4.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 3.8 1.6 0.1 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.4 2.6 0.2 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.2 2.9 0.5 5.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 2.8 1.0 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.4 0.2 4.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.5 3.9 5.7 7.5 9.3 10.8 11.7 11.4 10.7 9.4 7.1 4.4 2.3 0.8 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 99.8% 2.3    2.2 0.1
16-2 93.3% 4.1    3.4 0.6 0.0
15-3 72.4% 5.2    3.3 1.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 42.7% 4.0    1.6 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.1% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.0% 18.0 11.5 4.6 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 96.7% 56.8% 39.8% 3.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.3%
17-1 2.3% 92.4% 42.4% 50.0% 5.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 86.7%
16-2 4.4% 76.3% 33.1% 43.2% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.0 64.6%
15-3 7.1% 54.7% 27.3% 27.4% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.2 37.7%
14-4 9.4% 34.2% 22.0% 12.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.2 15.7%
13-5 10.7% 20.8% 16.6% 4.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.5 5.0%
12-6 11.4% 14.3% 13.3% 1.0% 12.1 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.8 1.2%
11-7 11.7% 9.7% 9.5% 0.1% 12.5 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.6 0.1%
10-8 10.8% 7.4% 7.3% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.0 0.0%
9-9 9.3% 5.0% 5.0% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.8
8-10 7.5% 3.8% 3.8% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.2
7-11 5.7% 3.5% 3.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.5
6-12 3.9% 1.8% 1.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.9
5-13 2.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.5
4-14 1.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-15 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 20.2% 13.2% 7.0% 10.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 2.2 5.1 3.8 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 79.8 8.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.5 19.6 31.4 35.3 9.9 1.9 1.7 0.2