Preseason Rankings
Virginia Tech
Atlantic Coast
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.1#57
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.8#211
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#39
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#75
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.2% 2.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 6.6% 6.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 12.6% 12.7% 1.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.0% 36.2% 11.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 32.1% 32.3% 9.0%
Average Seed 7.6 7.6 9.8
.500 or above 76.8% 77.0% 44.1%
.500 or above in Conference 63.2% 63.4% 37.5%
Conference Champion 5.8% 5.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 3.3% 10.9%
First Four5.0% 5.0% 4.5%
First Round33.5% 33.7% 8.7%
Second Round19.6% 19.7% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen8.0% 8.1% 1.8%
Elite Eight3.3% 3.3% 0.6%
Final Four1.4% 1.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 6
Quad 24 - 36 - 9
Quad 35 - 212 - 11
Quad 46 - 018 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 357   Coppin St. W 89-63 99%    
  Nov 10, 2023 89   South Carolina W 69-66 62%    
  Nov 15, 2023 294   Campbell W 77-58 96%    
  Nov 19, 2023 242   Wofford W 78-62 93%    
  Nov 23, 2023 54   Boise St. L 69-70 49%    
  Nov 29, 2023 23   @ Auburn L 68-75 27%    
  Dec 03, 2023 124   Louisville W 76-66 79%    
  Dec 09, 2023 310   Valparaiso W 80-60 96%    
  Dec 16, 2023 108   Vermont W 73-65 77%    
  Dec 21, 2023 261   American W 75-57 93%    
  Dec 30, 2023 64   @ Wake Forest L 74-76 43%    
  Jan 06, 2024 85   @ Florida St. W 75-74 50%    
  Jan 10, 2024 45   Clemson W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 13, 2024 30   Miami (FL) W 75-74 50%    
  Jan 17, 2024 34   @ Virginia L 60-65 33%    
  Jan 20, 2024 61   @ North Carolina St. L 73-76 41%    
  Jan 23, 2024 103   Boston College W 74-66 75%    
  Jan 27, 2024 98   Georgia Tech W 74-67 74%    
  Jan 29, 2024 3   Duke L 67-72 33%    
  Feb 03, 2024 30   @ Miami (FL) L 72-78 31%    
  Feb 10, 2024 133   @ Notre Dame W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 13, 2024 85   Florida St. W 77-71 69%    
  Feb 17, 2024 16   @ North Carolina L 70-78 26%    
  Feb 19, 2024 34   Virginia W 63-62 52%    
  Feb 24, 2024 69   @ Pittsburgh L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 27, 2024 75   @ Syracuse L 72-73 47%    
  Mar 02, 2024 64   Wake Forest W 77-73 63%    
  Mar 05, 2024 124   @ Louisville W 73-69 61%    
  Mar 09, 2024 133   Notre Dame W 74-64 79%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 5.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.6 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.4 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.1 2.1 0.4 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 1.2 3.8 3.0 0.6 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.4 0.9 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.6 1.1 0.1 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 6.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.7 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.1 3.4 5.0 6.6 8.3 9.7 10.7 10.6 10.2 9.1 7.8 6.1 4.2 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 99.0% 0.6    0.5 0.1
18-2 85.8% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
17-3 61.7% 1.6    1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 35.6% 1.5    0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 13.4% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 3.2 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 27.2% 72.8% 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 30.5% 69.5% 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.2% 100.0% 22.0% 78.0% 2.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.5% 99.2% 19.4% 79.8% 3.6 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
16-4 4.2% 98.7% 14.3% 84.4% 5.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.5%
15-5 6.1% 94.4% 10.7% 83.8% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 93.8%
14-6 7.8% 86.7% 9.6% 77.1% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.0 85.3%
13-7 9.1% 65.6% 7.3% 58.3% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.1 62.9%
12-8 10.2% 45.1% 5.6% 39.5% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.6 41.8%
11-9 10.6% 22.6% 4.0% 18.6% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.2 19.3%
10-10 10.7% 10.0% 3.2% 6.8% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.6 7.0%
9-11 9.7% 4.0% 3.2% 0.9% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 0.9%
8-12 8.3% 2.6% 2.5% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.1 0.1%
7-13 6.6% 1.2% 1.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5
6-14 5.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 4.9
5-15 3.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.3
4-16 2.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.1
3-17 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 36.0% 5.7% 30.3% 7.6 0.8 1.4 1.8 2.5 2.8 3.3 3.4 4.0 4.7 5.5 4.4 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 64.0 32.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.6 44.2 55.8