Elon
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#186
Expected Predictive Rating-0.4#174
Pace63.8#300
Improvement-3.8#326

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#179
First Shot-3.6#286
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#18
Layup/Dunks-3.1#295
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#284
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#163
Freethrows+0.8#123
Improvement-2.6#308

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#212
First Shot+1.9#111
After Offensive Rebounds-3.3#353
Layups/Dunks+3.0#76
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#210
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#302
Freethrows+2.1#56
Improvement-1.2#256
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.6% 6.0% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 14.6
.500 or above 96.4% 98.4% 84.2%
.500 or above in Conference 80.4% 85.5% 49.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round5.6% 5.9% 3.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Home) - 86.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 34 - 65 - 9
Quad 413 - 518 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 41   @ North Carolina L 76-90 8%     0 - 1 +0.2 +5.3 -4.2
  Nov 15, 2024 250   @ Gardner-Webb L 79-80 54%     0 - 2 -3.6 +9.0 -12.6
  Nov 20, 2024 347   @ Northern Illinois W 75-48 79%     1 - 2 +17.1 +2.2 +16.0
  Nov 22, 2024 89   @ Notre Dame W 84-77 17%     2 - 2 +15.8 +22.0 -5.5
  Nov 29, 2024 191   Maine L 56-69 51%     2 - 3 -14.8 -10.0 -5.9
  Nov 30, 2024 286   Navy W 69-63 70%     3 - 3 -1.0 -4.7 +3.8
  Dec 01, 2024 277   @ Penn W 68-53 59%     4 - 3 +11.1 +3.3 +10.3
  Dec 07, 2024 164   Wofford W 79-56 53%     5 - 3 +20.8 +7.8 +14.5
  Dec 18, 2024 162   @ East Tennessee St. L 58-84 34%     5 - 4 -23.2 -8.4 -16.6
  Dec 21, 2024 153   UNC Greensboro W 73-69 52%     6 - 4 +2.1 +7.1 -4.6
  Dec 28, 2024 177   Marshall W 73-59 57%     7 - 4 +10.7 +0.1 +10.8
  Jan 02, 2025 323   @ N.C. A&T W 75-67 72%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +0.5 +6.9 -5.4
  Jan 04, 2025 270   Hampton W 70-62 75%     9 - 4 2 - 0 -0.6 -2.3 +2.3
  Jan 09, 2025 223   @ William & Mary L 65-78 48%     9 - 5 2 - 1 -13.9 -1.4 -14.2
  Jan 13, 2025 176   Campbell W 81-68 57%     10 - 5 3 - 1 +9.8 +15.8 -4.9
  Jan 16, 2025 183   @ Drexel W 65-54 40%     11 - 5 4 - 1 +12.3 +8.6 +6.0
  Jan 18, 2025 234   @ Delaware L 77-79 51%     11 - 6 4 - 2 -3.6 -0.7 -2.8
  Jan 23, 2025 255   Monmouth W 83-71 73%     12 - 6 5 - 2 +4.1 +3.0 +0.7
  Jan 25, 2025 143   College of Charleston L 62-76 50%     12 - 7 5 - 3 -15.4 -4.6 -12.3
  Jan 30, 2025 204   Hofstra L 63-74 62%     12 - 8 5 - 4 -15.6 -4.9 -11.3
  Feb 01, 2025 208   Northeastern W 71-60 63%     13 - 8 6 - 4 +6.1 +4.1 +3.3
  Feb 06, 2025 176   @ Campbell L 58-76 38%     13 - 9 6 - 5 -16.3 -7.4 -10.2
  Feb 08, 2025 143   @ College of Charleston L 83-88 OT 31%     13 - 10 6 - 6 -1.4 +1.6 -2.4
  Feb 13, 2025 323   N.C. A&T W 79-68 86%    
  Feb 15, 2025 113   @ UNC Wilmington L 66-73 24%    
  Feb 20, 2025 158   Towson W 65-64 54%    
  Feb 22, 2025 223   William & Mary W 79-75 68%    
  Feb 27, 2025 255   @ Monmouth W 72-70 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 311   @ Stony Brook W 73-68 65%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.3 2.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 6.4 1.7 10.0 4th
5th 1.7 14.0 8.4 0.4 24.5 5th
6th 0.7 13.3 13.7 1.7 29.4 6th
7th 0.1 4.2 11.5 0.9 16.6 7th
8th 0.4 6.2 2.5 9.1 8th
9th 1.6 3.5 0.2 5.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 0.5 2.3 10th
11th 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.4 4.2 15.0 29.2 30.6 17.2 3.4 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 3.4% 13.7% 13.7% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 3.0
11-7 17.2% 8.3% 8.3% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 15.8
10-8 30.6% 6.3% 6.3% 14.4 0.1 1.0 0.8 0.1 28.7
9-9 29.2% 4.4% 4.4% 14.6 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 27.9
8-10 15.0% 2.7% 2.7% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 14.6
7-11 4.2% 2.6% 2.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 4.1
6-12 0.4% 0.4
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 14.3 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.2 0.3 94.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 13.2 12.8 55.3 31.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%