Elon
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.6 #202
Expected Predictive Rating -2.0 #199
Pace 67.8 #211
Improvement -2.8 #303

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #122 B- C C C A-
Defense #299 C- D C- C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #26 1.19 #137 +4.8 #34
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #349 0.70 #273 -4.5 #357
Three Pointers 44% #117 1.09 #73 +3.4 #67
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #67 +3.7 #72
Freethrows 0.31 #175 70% #256 0.22 #198
Second Chance 33.3% #105 0.96 #279 0.32 #153
Turnovers 16.8% #168
Total Offense +1.7 #122

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #305 1.09 #85 +3.9 #57
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #243 0.75 #163 +1.2 #95
Three Pointers 48% #26 1.17 #348 -7.0 #358
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #252 -1.9 #241
Freethrows 0.29 #147 71% #132 0.21 #130
Second Chance 33.9% #307 1.13 #310 0.38 #325
Turnovers 15.9% #241
Total Defense -4.3 #299

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.7% #12 -0.1% #158
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.9% #109 4.3% #263
Possession Length 17.2 #162 17.6 #241
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #230 0.17 #173
Improvement -5.0 #355 +2.2 #66

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 3.3% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 40.1% 51.4% 19.4%
.500 or above in Conference 34.7% 46.0% 14.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.3% 2.6%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round3.0% 3.3% 2.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drexel (Home) - 64.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 67 - 10
Quad 48 - 615 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 311 @UNC Greensboro W 92 - 90 OT 63% +1  1 - 0 -4 +8 D+ D A+ -12 F B+ D+
 Wed, Nov 12 156 @Marshall L 89 - 96 30% -6  1 - 1 -4 +9 B B- A- -13 F+ F C
 Sat, Nov 15 363 Gardner-Webb W 95 - 84 95% +16  2 - 1 -11 +5 A B F -16 F D D-
 Thu, Nov 20 40 @Miami (FL) L 72 - 99 6% -10  2 - 2 -11 +3 A+ D+ F -13 C- F D
 Mon, Nov 24 172 @Appalachian St. W 88 - 53 32% +17  3 - 2 +37 +31 B- A+ A +11 A- B D+
 Sat, Nov 29 152 Mercer L 84 - 91 51% -1  3 - 3 -10 +0 D+ D+ F -9 D B+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 162 Furman L 88 - 97 53% +1  3 - 4 -12 +12 C+ C+ A+ -24 F+ C F
 Sat, Dec 6 199 @Wofford W 73 - 52 38% +21  4 - 4 +22 +9 A F D +15 A+ B+ C-
 Sat, Dec 13 310 Northern Illinois W 85 - 79 81% -4  5 - 4 -6 +7 C+ F A -13 C- D F+
 Wed, Dec 17 137 Richmond W 73 - 70 46% -2  6 - 4 +1 +3 A F D- -1 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 58 @Virginia Tech L 81 - 82 OT 9% +6  6 - 5 +11 +15 A A+ D- -4 B F B+
 Mon, Dec 29 262 Northeastern W 103 - 91 72% +5  7 - 5 1 - 0 +3 +20 A+ A+ D -17 F D+ C+
 Wed, Dec 31 151 College of Charleston L 81 - 85 50% -7  7 - 6 1 - 1 -7 +3 C C- A+ -10 C+ F C
 Thu, Jan 8 286 @N.C. A&T W 69 - 64 56% +6  8 - 6 2 - 1 +1 -4 D- C+ C +5 A- F C
 Sat, Jan 10 198 Campbell W 83 - 82 61% -6  9 - 6 3 - 1 -4 +9 B- A+ B+ -13 F B F
 Thu, Jan 15 262 @Northeastern L 78 - 85 51% -4  9 - 7 3 - 2 -10 -5 C+ D F -5 C+ F D
 Sat, Jan 17 122 @Hofstra W 89 - 85 22% +3  10 - 7 4 - 2 +9 +23 A+ D+ A- -13 F A C
 Thu, Jan 22 158 Towson L 59 - 72 52% -5  10 - 8 4 - 3 -16 -2 C- C F -16 A F F
 Sat, Jan 24 151 @College of Charleston L 70 - 80 28% -10  10 - 9 4 - 4 -7 -3 D C D -4 D C- A
 Thu, Jan 29 141 William & Mary W 79 - 76 47% -4  11 - 9 5 - 4 +1 +8 C+ B A+ -7 C- C B-
 Sat, Jan 31 218 Stony Brook L 68 - 72 64% -6  11 - 10 5 - 5 -10 -7 C+ F D -4 C+ F C+
 Thu, Feb 5 247 @Hampton L 79 - 87 2OT 48% -0  11 - 11 5 - 6 -10 -2 D+ D C+ -8 A- F F
 Sat, Feb 7 221 Drexel W 71 - 67 65%
 Thu, Feb 12 119 @UNC Wilmington L 71 - 79 22%
 Sat, Feb 14 141 @William & Mary L 80 - 87 26%
 Sat, Feb 21 286 N.C. A&T W 82 - 75 76%
 Thu, Feb 26 158 @Towson L 68 - 73 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 207 @Monmouth L 72 - 75 40%
 Tue, Mar 3 119 UNC Wilmington L 74 - 76 42%
Totals 14 - 15 8 - 10 -3 +2 B- C C -4 C- D C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 1.3 2.4 3rd
4th 0.3 3.4 0.6 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 3.1 4.1 0.1 7.2 5th
6th 0.6 8.4 1.5 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 4.6 7.8 0.2 12.6 7th
8th 1.0 11.8 2.1 14.9 8th
9th 0.2 6.0 9.1 0.2 15.4 9th
10th 0.0 2.4 11.1 2.8 0.0 16.3 10th
11th 1.0 6.9 5.6 0.4 13.9 11th
12th 0.8 0.8 0.0 1.6 12th
13th 0.2 0.2 13th
Total 2.0 10.2 23.7 29.4 21.8 10.2 2.5 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 33.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1
11-7 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.2% 19.0% 19.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 2.5% 12.1% 12.1% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.2
10-8 10.2% 5.9% 5.9% 14.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 9.6
9-9 21.8% 4.4% 4.4% 14.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 20.8
8-10 29.4% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 28.7
7-11 23.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.5 0.2 0.2 23.4
6-12 10.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 10.1
5-13 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 14.6 97.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%