Monmouth
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.2#255
Expected Predictive Rating-8.1#300
Pace67.8#212
Improvement+6.7#5

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#241
First Shot-2.2#240
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#223
Layup/Dunks-4.8#335
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#121
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#145
Freethrows+0.9#119
Improvement+1.6#91

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#250
First Shot-1.1#208
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#297
Layups/Dunks-1.2#218
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#84
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#170
Freethrows-1.7#295
Improvement+5.0#5
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.7% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 0.7% 1.2% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 33.6% 45.9% 20.3%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.2% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 1.1% 7.4%
First Four1.1% 1.3% 0.9%
First Round1.0% 1.3% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Away) - 52.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 33 - 94 - 14
Quad 47 - 810 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 11   @ Michigan St. L 57-81 2%     0 - 1 -3.4 -6.2 +3.5
  Nov 08, 2024 115   Temple L 74-103 22%     0 - 2 -26.3 -1.2 -23.6
  Nov 12, 2024 356   @ Northern Illinois L 66-79 71%     0 - 3 -23.9 -11.5 -12.1
  Nov 15, 2024 72   @ Rutgers L 81-98 8%     0 - 4 -6.6 +14.1 -20.7
  Nov 18, 2024 133   @ Wichita St. L 66-70 17%     0 - 5 +0.8 -5.3 +6.1
  Nov 21, 2024 199   Youngstown St. L 62-72 37%     0 - 6 -11.7 -11.4 +0.2
  Nov 22, 2024 221   @ Stephen F. Austin L 67-72 32%     0 - 7 -5.5 +2.4 -8.1
  Nov 23, 2024 275   Presbyterian L 61-71 54%     0 - 8 -16.3 -9.5 -7.9
  Nov 30, 2024 128   @ Seton Hall W 63-51 16%     1 - 8 +17.3 +5.2 +14.0
  Dec 04, 2024 274   @ Lehigh L 63-90 42%     1 - 9 -30.2 -10.0 -20.5
  Dec 10, 2024 112   @ Princeton L 67-71 15%     1 - 10 +1.8 +0.3 +1.3
  Dec 21, 2024 300   Fairfield W 88-74 71%     2 - 10 +3.1 +8.5 -5.3
  Dec 30, 2024 2   @ Auburn L 58-87 1%     2 - 11 -3.0 -4.6 +1.1
  Jan 02, 2025 326   Stony Brook W 78-56 76%     3 - 11 1 - 0 +9.2 +9.3 +3.3
  Jan 04, 2025 200   @ Delaware L 64-84 27%     3 - 12 1 - 1 -18.8 -9.2 -10.3
  Jan 09, 2025 143   UNC Wilmington L 55-64 37%     3 - 13 1 - 2 -10.8 -14.9 +3.3
  Jan 11, 2025 120   College of Charleston W 84-73 32%     4 - 13 2 - 2 +10.5 +10.7 -0.3
  Jan 16, 2025 315   @ N.C. A&T W 77-76 52%    
  Jan 18, 2025 265   @ Campbell L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 23, 2025 179   @ Elon L 66-73 24%    
  Jan 25, 2025 193   @ William & Mary L 75-82 26%    
  Jan 30, 2025 178   Drexel L 66-67 45%    
  Feb 01, 2025 200   Delaware L 77-78 49%    
  Feb 06, 2025 257   Hampton W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 173   Towson L 65-67 44%    
  Feb 13, 2025 326   @ Stony Brook W 72-70 55%    
  Feb 15, 2025 173   @ Towson L 62-70 24%    
  Feb 20, 2025 176   @ Hofstra L 60-68 24%    
  Feb 22, 2025 203   Northeastern L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 27, 2025 179   Elon L 69-70 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 178   @ Drexel L 63-70 25%    
Projected Record 10 - 21 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.3 2.7 1.5 0.1 4.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 3.8 0.4 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.5 1.6 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.6 4.8 4.7 0.3 10.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 3.7 6.7 1.4 0.0 12.0 9th
10th 0.2 2.4 7.2 4.0 0.1 13.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.9 6.3 5.5 0.7 14.5 11th
12th 0.2 1.7 5.2 5.0 1.1 0.0 13.3 12th
13th 0.0 1.0 2.6 2.2 0.6 0.0 6.3 13th
14th 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.4 14th
Total 0.2 1.8 4.9 9.5 14.6 18.0 17.3 14.7 9.7 5.6 2.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 63.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 53.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 39.8% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 8.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 2.6% 2.6% 14.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 15.6% 15.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.8% 9.1% 9.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
12-6 2.5% 6.0% 6.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.3
11-7 5.6% 5.3% 5.3% 15.9 0.0 0.3 5.3
10-8 9.7% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.3 9.4
9-9 14.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 14.4
8-10 17.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 17.2
7-11 18.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 18.0
6-12 14.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.5
5-13 9.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 9.4
4-14 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.9
3-15 1.8% 1.8
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.2 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%