Army
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.2#291
Expected Predictive Rating-4.8#242
Pace68.0#185
Improvement+0.9#150

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#247
First Shot-1.6#223
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#266
Layup/Dunks+0.6#158
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#316
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#63
Freethrows-3.5#351
Improvement+0.7#157

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#303
First Shot-4.1#302
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#215
Layups/Dunks-2.5#281
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#167
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#316
Freethrows+1.7#67
Improvement+0.2#177
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.8% 10.4% 9.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 66.7% 82.9% 52.7%
.500 or above in Conference 96.2% 100.0% 92.9%
Conference Champion 13.6% 21.4% 6.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four7.8% 7.7% 8.0%
First Round5.5% 6.2% 4.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Away) - 46.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 30 - 5
Quad 415 - 915 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 276   Albany W 67-59 56%     1 - 0 -0.7 -7.8 +7.3
  Nov 08, 2024 2   @ Duke L 58-100 1%     1 - 1 -16.6 -3.6 -12.5
  Nov 15, 2024 225   @ Marist L 88-91 OT 27%     1 - 2 -4.0 +18.1 -22.0
  Nov 20, 2024 325   Fairleigh Dickinson W 84-70 70%     2 - 2 +1.5 +3.8 -2.7
  Nov 22, 2024 274   @ Manhattan L 79-80 37%     2 - 3 -4.8 -0.3 -4.4
  Dec 03, 2024 356   @ Le Moyne W 103-100 3OT 66%     3 - 3 -8.4 -6.4 -2.8
  Dec 08, 2024 132   Cornell L 84-103 27%     3 - 4 -19.7 +4.6 -23.9
  Dec 13, 2024 117   @ George Washington L 60-75 12%     3 - 5 -9.7 -3.0 -7.9
  Dec 22, 2024 302   Binghamton L 68-78 63%     3 - 6 -20.6 -11.3 -9.0
  Dec 29, 2024 201   Texas San Antonio W 78-75 40%     4 - 6 -1.6 -6.4 +4.6
  Jan 02, 2025 238   @ Colgate L 59-71 31%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -14.1 -14.9 +0.5
  Jan 05, 2025 293   @ Boston University L 63-71 41%     4 - 8 0 - 2 -12.8 -5.6 -7.9
  Jan 08, 2025 318   Loyola Maryland W 74-72 67%     5 - 8 1 - 2 -9.8 +1.4 -11.1
  Jan 11, 2025 272   @ Lehigh W 74-69 37%     6 - 8 2 - 2 +1.3 -3.4 +4.4
  Jan 15, 2025 288   Lafayette W 70-68 59%     7 - 8 3 - 2 -7.5 +3.8 -11.1
  Jan 18, 2025 293   Boston University W 68-62 60%     8 - 8 4 - 2 -3.8 +4.6 -7.2
  Jan 22, 2025 305   @ Holy Cross W 76-71 45%     9 - 8 5 - 2 -0.9 -3.4 +2.3
  Jan 26, 2025 286   Navy L 53-66 59%     9 - 9 5 - 3 -22.5 -18.8 -5.1
  Jan 29, 2025 238   Colgate W 84-72 49%     10 - 9 6 - 3 +4.9 +11.4 -5.8
  Feb 01, 2025 247   @ American L 68-71 32%     10 - 10 6 - 4 -5.5 +2.7 -8.5
  Feb 05, 2025 305   Holy Cross W 68-65 64%     11 - 10 7 - 4 -7.8 -6.3 -1.3
  Feb 08, 2025 248   Bucknell W 116-110 2OT 51%     12 - 10 8 - 4 -1.4 +21.1 -23.5
  Feb 12, 2025 318   @ Loyola Maryland L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 15, 2025 286   @ Navy L 71-74 38%    
  Feb 19, 2025 247   American W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 23, 2025 248   @ Bucknell L 70-75 31%    
  Feb 25, 2025 288   @ Lafayette L 67-70 38%    
  Mar 01, 2025 272   Lehigh W 73-72 56%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.4 6.4 4.8 1.1 13.6 1st
2nd 0.1 4.7 15.8 10.1 1.0 31.6 2nd
3rd 1.6 13.2 9.8 1.0 25.6 3rd
4th 0.2 7.9 9.4 1.7 0.0 19.2 4th
5th 1.1 5.0 0.6 6.7 5th
6th 1.8 0.7 2.5 6th
7th 0.7 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 3.8 15.4 27.9 28.6 17.4 5.8 1.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 1.1    0.9 0.2
13-5 82.4% 4.8    2.2 2.4 0.3
12-6 36.4% 6.4    1.3 3.2 1.6 0.2
11-7 4.8% 1.4    0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.6% 13.6 4.4 6.1 2.6 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.1% 18.2% 18.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
13-5 5.8% 14.7% 14.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.9
12-6 17.4% 13.1% 13.1% 16.0 0.1 2.2 15.1
11-7 28.6% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 0.0 2.9 25.7
10-8 27.9% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.0 2.3 25.5
9-9 15.4% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 1.0 14.4
8-10 3.8% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 3.7
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 9.4 90.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 15.1 15.0 65.0 20.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 2.2%