Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.7#102
Expected Predictive Rating+3.1#127
Pace65.9#278
Improvement+4.2#6

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#97
First Shot+4.9#54
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#303
Layup/Dunks-0.3#193
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#69
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#87
Freethrows+0.1#167
Improvement+2.8#11

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#114
First Shot-0.6#185
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#53
Layups/Dunks-4.0#311
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#324
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#40
Freethrows+1.0#120
Improvement+1.5#48
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.0% 18.8% 13.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.5
.500 or above 91.9% 95.2% 84.3%
.500 or above in Conference 85.6% 88.4% 79.4%
Conference Champion 21.9% 24.3% 16.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.5% 1.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round17.0% 18.7% 13.0%
Second Round3.1% 3.6% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Neutral) - 69.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 38 - 510 - 10
Quad 411 - 221 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 207 @Ohio L 68-72 68%     0 - 1 -4.0 -5.7 +1.7
  Sun, Nov 9 161 Cornell W 76-65 79%     1 - 1 +7.4 -3.2 +10.2
  Fri, Nov 14 31 USC L 67-87 20%     1 - 2 -6.6 +0.4 -7.3
  Sun, Nov 16 298 @Long Beach St. W 82-80 81%     2 - 2 -2.6 +9.5 -12.0
  Sun, Nov 23 253 Coastal Carolina W 94-42 88%     3 - 2 +44.0 +13.8 +27.1
  Thu, Nov 27 196 Charlotte W 79-69 75%     4 - 2 +7.7 +7.7 +0.7
  Fri, Nov 28 160 Furman W 73-68 69%    
  Wed, Dec 3 258 Eastern Kentucky W 81-68 89%    
  Sat, Dec 6 340 Chicago St. W 83-64 96%    
  Sat, Dec 13 35 Utah St. L 70-78 23%    
  Thu, Dec 18 142 @Southern Illinois W 73-72 53%    
  Sun, Dec 21 166 Indiana St. W 80-71 79%    
  Mon, Dec 29 143 @Drake W 67-66 53%    
  Thu, Jan 1 291 Evansville W 77-62 91%    
  Wed, Jan 7 268 @Valparaiso W 72-65 75%    
  Sat, Jan 10 174 Illinois-Chicago W 78-69 79%    
  Wed, Jan 14 166 @Indiana St. W 77-74 59%    
  Sat, Jan 17 112 Bradley W 73-69 66%    
  Wed, Jan 21 90 Northern Iowa W 66-64 56%    
  Sun, Jan 25 94 @Belmont L 72-76 37%    
  Wed, Jan 28 118 @Murray St. L 78-79 45%    
  Tue, Feb 3 142 Southern Illinois W 76-69 73%    
  Fri, Feb 6 143 Drake W 70-63 73%    
  Mon, Feb 9 291 @Evansville W 74-65 79%    
  Thu, Feb 12 268 Valparaiso W 75-62 88%    
  Sun, Feb 15 174 @Illinois-Chicago W 75-72 61%    
  Wed, Feb 18 118 Murray St. W 81-76 66%    
  Sat, Feb 21 112 @Bradley L 70-72 45%    
  Wed, Feb 25 90 @Northern Iowa L 63-67 35%    
  Sun, Mar 1 94 Belmont W 75-73 57%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.9 5.7 4.8 2.7 1.0 0.2 21.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.2 6.5 5.3 2.3 0.4 0.1 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.6 6.2 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 15.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.5 3.1 0.5 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.6 1.9 0.2 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.7 1.4 0.2 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 0.9 0.1 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.7 6.1 8.5 10.5 12.2 13.1 12.7 11.2 8.2 5.3 2.8 1.0 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
18-2 98.0% 2.7    2.6 0.1
17-3 91.4% 4.8    3.9 0.9 0.0
16-4 70.2% 5.7    3.9 1.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 43.8% 4.9    2.1 2.2 0.5 0.0
14-6 16.5% 2.1    0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.9% 21.9 14.3 5.9 1.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 68.5% 56.2% 12.3% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 28.1%
19-1 1.0% 54.6% 52.0% 2.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 5.5%
18-2 2.8% 44.2% 42.1% 2.0% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.5 3.5%
17-3 5.3% 37.9% 37.6% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.3 0.5%
16-4 8.2% 29.1% 29.1% 12.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.8
15-5 11.2% 26.8% 26.8% 12.2 0.3 2.0 0.7 0.0 8.2
14-6 12.7% 19.5% 19.5% 12.4 0.1 1.3 0.9 0.1 10.2
13-7 13.1% 16.3% 16.3% 12.6 0.0 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 11.0
12-8 12.2% 11.2% 11.2% 12.8 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 10.9
11-9 10.5% 8.9% 8.9% 13.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 9.6
10-10 8.5% 5.5% 5.5% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.0
9-11 6.1% 3.0% 3.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.9
8-12 3.7% 2.1% 2.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.6
7-13 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.3
6-14 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.0% 16.9% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.6 8.2 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 83.0 0.2%