Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.6 #94
Expected Predictive Rating +2.8 #123
Pace 66.1 #260
Improvement -0.2 #203

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #97 B- C B- C- C-
Defense #100 B- B+ C C A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #261 1.31 #40 +1.1 #134
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #151 0.80 #123 +1.0 #127
Three Pointers 43% #154 1.02 #176 +0.9 #147
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #102 +2.9 #100
Freethrows 17.5 #179 67% #325 11.7 #239
Second Chance 28.1% #253 1.16 #54 0.33 #153
Turnovers 15.4% #110
Total Offense +3.0 #97

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #257 1.19 #218 +1.1 #135
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #34 0.64 #39 -1.0 #259
Three Pointers 37% #273 1.00 #168 +2.0 #105
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #107 +2.2 #112
Freethrows 18.4 #238 65% #5 12.0 #209
Second Chance 26.7% #58 0.97 #85 0.26 #47
Turnovers 16.3% #195
Total Defense +2.6 #100

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #235 -2.0% #38
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.4% #84 -2.4% #140
Possession Length 18.4 #277 17.1 #147
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #316 0.15 #113
Improvement +1.0 #126 -1.2 #262

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.7% 18.1% 13.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.3
.500 or above 97.2% 98.8% 93.8%
.500 or above in Conference 87.1% 92.6% 75.9%
Conference Champion 7.9% 10.5% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round16.7% 18.1% 13.8%
Second Round2.4% 2.6% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Home) - 67.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 33 - 6
Quad 38 - 511 - 11
Quad 49 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 179 @Ohio L 68 - 72 66% -2  0 - 1 -3 -5 D F C +2 C- A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 194 Cornell W 76 - 65 84% +4  1 - 1 +6 -8 F D F +14 A+ B F
 Fri, Nov 14 48 USC L 67 - 87 29% -12  1 - 2 -9 +1 F A- B- -10 C C- F
 Sun, Nov 16 254 @Long Beach St. W 82 - 80 78% +4  2 - 2 -0 +10 D+ F A+ -10 F C F
 Sun, Nov 23 258 Coastal Carolina W 94 - 42 90% +30  3 - 2 +44 +13 A+ C- A+ +28 A+ A+ C
 Thu, Nov 27 174 Charlotte W 79 - 69 74% +10  4 - 2 +9 +8 B- B- A+ +1 F A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 151 Furman W 72 - 65 68% +4  5 - 2 +8 +4 C A+ C +5 C A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 3 253 Eastern Kentucky W 89 - 78 90% +9  6 - 2 +3 +8 A A+ D- -5 C- C C+
 Sat, Dec 6 354 Chicago St. W 95 - 53 97% +30  7 - 2 +26 +18 A+ B C+ +10 A+ D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 27 Utah St. L 78 - 83 19% -6  7 - 3 +10 +15 A+ A+ F -6 D D A+
 Thu, Dec 18 137 @Southern Illinois W 75 - 68 55% -0  8 - 3 1 - 0 +11 +7 B A+ D+ +4 C C A+
 Sun, Dec 21 195 Indiana St. W 85 - 65 84% +15  9 - 3 2 - 0 +15 +12 A F A+ +3 C A+ C
 Mon, Dec 29 161 @Drake W 73 - 56 61% +8  10 - 3 3 - 0 +20 +6 A+ F F +15 A+ B D+
 Thu, Jan 1 251 Evansville W 73 - 47 90% +14  11 - 3 4 - 0 +18 -3 C F A+ +20 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 7 185 @Valparaiso L 71 - 77 66% -5  11 - 4 4 - 1 -5 +6 D+ B A -11 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 158 Illinois-Chicago L 59 - 63 OT 80% -1  11 - 5 4 - 2 -7 -13 F D+ B+ +6 A+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 14 195 @Indiana St. L 89 - 94 68% -6  11 - 6 4 - 3 -4 +18 A+ B- A+ -22 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 17 112 Bradley W 75 - 70 67%
 Wed, Jan 21 106 Northern Iowa W 66 - 62 66%
 Sun, Jan 25 79 @Belmont L 74 - 79 33%
 Wed, Jan 28 88 @Murray St. L 77 - 81 36%
 Tue, Feb 3 137 Southern Illinois W 76 - 69 75%
 Fri, Feb 6 161 Drake W 75 - 66 80%
 Mon, Feb 9 251 @Evansville W 74 - 66 77%
 Thu, Feb 12 185 Valparaiso W 75 - 65 83%
 Sun, Feb 15 158 @Illinois-Chicago W 72 - 69 60%
 Wed, Feb 18 88 Murray St. W 80 - 78 58%
 Sat, Feb 21 112 @Bradley L 72 - 73 46%
 Wed, Feb 25 106 @Northern Iowa L 63 - 65 44%
 Sun, Mar 1 79 Belmont W 77 - 76 55%
Totals 19 - 11 12 - 8 +6 +3 B- C B- +3 B- B+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 2.2 3.4 1.7 0.2 7.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 5.3 7.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 7.4 9.0 2.5 0.1 20.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 7.5 8.9 2.5 0.1 20.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 5.8 7.2 2.0 0.1 16.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.6 4.8 1.5 0.1 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.5 0.9 0.1 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.4 7.7 12.8 17.6 19.4 17.2 12.0 5.9 1.9 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 96.1% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 86.4% 1.7    1.2 0.4 0.0
15-5 57.2% 3.4    1.5 1.5 0.4 0.0
14-6 18.6% 2.2    0.4 1.0 0.7 0.2
13-7 2.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.9% 7.9 3.4 3.0 1.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.3% 41.2% 39.2% 2.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.2%
16-4 1.9% 40.1% 39.1% 1.0% 11.4 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2 1.7%
15-5 5.9% 32.1% 32.1% 11.7 0.6 1.3 0.0 4.0
14-6 12.0% 24.3% 24.3% 11.9 0.4 2.3 0.2 9.1
13-7 17.2% 20.4% 20.4% 12.0 0.3 2.7 0.5 13.7
12-8 19.4% 17.2% 17.2% 12.3 0.1 2.2 1.0 0.1 16.1
11-9 17.6% 13.1% 13.1% 12.5 0.0 1.2 1.0 0.1 15.3
10-10 12.8% 9.0% 9.0% 12.6 0.6 0.5 0.1 11.6
9-11 7.7% 6.8% 6.8% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 7.2
8-12 3.4% 4.3% 4.3% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.3
7-13 1.3% 3.0% 3.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 1.3
6-14 0.4% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 12.2 83.3 0.0%