Monmouth
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.9 #207
Expected Predictive Rating -4.0 #230
Pace 66.7 #234
Improvement +1.3 #132

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #273 D+ C C C D+
Defense #140 C C B- B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #212 1.08 #265 -2.0 #252
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #74 0.70 #271 +1.4 #98
Three Pointers 36% #280 0.98 #231 -3.1 #289
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #288 -3.6 #289
Freethrows 0.30 #216 73% #154 0.22 #195
Second Chance 30.6% #183 1.05 #142 0.32 #153
Turnovers 17.5% #214
Total Offense -3.8 #273

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #124 1.13 #134 -0.6 #197
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #238 0.76 #185 +0.8 #127
Three Pointers 41% #184 1.07 #264 -1.2 #239
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #211 -1.0 #211
Freethrows 0.28 #87 72% #169 0.20 #95
Second Chance 33.1% #287 0.91 #44 0.30 #149
Turnovers 19.1% #66
Total Defense +0.9 #140

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #292 0.8% #245
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.5% #278 1.0% #207
Possession Length 17.6 #217 17.8 #264
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #111 0.18 #213
Improvement -2.5 #321 +3.9 #26

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 4.4% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 20.3% 33.7% 11.2%
.500 or above in Conference 47.5% 67.2% 34.2%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.0% 1.3%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 0.5%
First Round3.0% 4.2% 2.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stony Brook (Away) - 40.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 34 - 64 - 10
Quad 410 - 714 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 215 @La Salle L 60 - 73 39% -3  0 - 1 -13 -9 D- C+ F -5 C- B- C
 Thu, Nov 13 53 @Seton Hall L 58 - 70 8% -2  0 - 2 +1 -1 F A+ F +2 B- A+ F+
 Tue, Nov 18 68 @Syracuse L 73 - 78 10% -5  0 - 3 +6 +5 C+ D+ B+ +2 B- C C+
 Sun, Nov 23 220 Robert Morris W 71 - 70 OT 63% -1  1 - 3 -5 -5 F B+ C+ -0 B C D+
 Fri, Nov 28 296 Ball St. W 80 - 73 69% +4  2 - 3 -1 +9 C B A+ -9 F B- D+
 Sat, Nov 29 294 Le Moyne L 79 - 83 68% -1  2 - 4 -12 +4 F A+ B+ -16 F D C
 Sun, Nov 30 309 @Lafayette W 88 - 74 62% +13  3 - 4 +8 +12 A+ F C -4 D+ C+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 214 Princeton W 63 - 58 62% +3  4 - 4 -1 -10 D- F C+ +9 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 116 @Georgia Tech L 67 - 79 20% -2  4 - 5 -6 -1 D C+ A+ -4 C- B- B+
 Sun, Dec 14 272 @Fairfield L 65 - 73 51% -0  4 - 6 -11 -4 D D C -8 F D C-
 Wed, Dec 17 186 Quinnipiac L 75 - 85 57% -15  4 - 7 -15 -1 C- F D+ -13 F C- C-
 Sun, Dec 21 300 Lehigh W 76 - 62 78% +7  5 - 7 +3 +2 A F F+ +1 F B- A+
 Wed, Dec 31 213 Campbell L 65 - 68 62% +2  5 - 8 0 - 1 -9 -8 F D+ A+ -1 A F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 154 @Towson W 62 - 48 29% +7  6 - 8 1 - 1 +17 -1 C- C+ F +19 A A+ C
 Thu, Jan 8 150 William & Mary W 81 - 70 48% +3  7 - 8 2 - 1 +9 +4 C A A- +4 B D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 126 @Hofstra L 64 - 67 OT 22% +1  7 - 9 2 - 2 +2 -9 F D- D +11 A+ A C
 Thu, Jan 15 204 Drexel L 51 - 73 61% -14  7 - 10 2 - 3 -28 -13 F C F -19 F F B-
 Mon, Jan 19 256 Northeastern W 81 - 68 70% +1  8 - 10 3 - 3 +5 -1 D B- A+ +5 C A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 252 @Hampton L 63 - 65 47% -3  8 - 11 3 - 4 -4 -4 C- B F -1 B- D- C
 Sat, Jan 24 213 @Campbell W 88 - 73 39% +5  9 - 11 4 - 4 +15 +10 A A+ F +4 B+ A F
 Thu, Jan 29 282 N.C. A&T W 83 - 81 OT 75% -2  10 - 11 5 - 4 -8 +0 F+ C+ B -8 C+ F B
 Sat, Jan 31 126 Hofstra L 57 - 73 42% -10  10 - 12 5 - 5 -17 -13 D- F A+ -5 F+ F A+
 Thu, Feb 5 217 @Stony Brook L 66 - 69 40%
 Thu, Feb 12 204 @Drexel L 62 - 65 38%
 Sat, Feb 14 154 Towson W 65 - 64 50%
 Thu, Feb 19 117 @UNC Wilmington L 64 - 73 20%
 Sat, Feb 21 152 @College of Charleston L 69 - 75 28%
 Thu, Feb 26 217 Stony Brook W 69 - 66 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 193 Elon W 74 - 72 57%
 Tue, Mar 3 256 @Northeastern L 76 - 77 48%
Totals 13 - 17 8 - 10 -3 -4 D+ C C +1 C C B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.1 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.0 3.6 0.6 0.0 6.1 3rd
4th 0.8 6.1 1.6 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 4.0 5.2 0.2 9.4 5th
6th 0.7 9.2 1.8 11.7 6th
7th 0.1 5.3 7.8 0.1 13.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 11.0 1.9 0.0 14.5 8th
9th 0.4 6.9 6.8 0.1 14.2 9th
10th 0.2 2.6 7.8 1.3 11.8 10th
11th 0.8 3.5 2.3 0.1 6.6 11th
12th 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 1.6 7.2 18.6 25.1 23.9 15.3 6.4 1.6 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 41.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.2% 16.7% 16.7% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 1.6% 11.7% 11.7% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4
11-7 6.4% 9.3% 9.3% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 5.8
10-8 15.3% 6.5% 6.5% 15.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 14.3
9-9 23.9% 2.4% 2.4% 15.2 0.0 0.4 0.2 23.3
8-10 25.1% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.1 0.4 24.7
7-11 18.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 18.4
6-12 7.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.1
5-13 1.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 15.1 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%