Princeton
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.9#108
Expected Predictive Rating+4.2#108
Pace68.0#211
Improvement+2.2#47

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#70
First Shot+7.0#29
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#314
Layup/Dunks+1.6#127
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.2#5
Freethrows-1.7#278
Improvement+0.8#120

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#188
First Shot-2.0#234
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#82
Layups/Dunks-1.4#220
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#182
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#253
Freethrows+1.1#117
Improvement+1.4#63
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.3% 33.5% 28.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.5 12.9
.500 or above 95.4% 98.2% 93.2%
.500 or above in Conference 91.9% 94.0% 90.3%
Conference Champion 39.5% 44.2% 36.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.7% 1.2%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round30.3% 33.4% 28.0%
Second Round4.5% 5.6% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.5% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Away) - 42.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 22 - 3
Quad 36 - 58 - 8
Quad 410 - 219 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 274   Iona W 81-80 89%     1 - 0 -8.2 +5.9 -14.1
  Nov 08, 2024 208   Duquesne W 75-68 72%     2 - 0 +4.7 +1.1 +3.5
  Nov 10, 2024 152   @ Northeastern W 79-76 51%     3 - 0 +6.5 +8.3 -1.9
  Nov 15, 2024 86   Loyola Chicago L 68-73 52%     3 - 1 -1.7 -3.0 +1.4
  Nov 17, 2024 222   @ Merrimack W 68-57 66%     4 - 1 +10.7 +12.4 +0.4
  Nov 21, 2024 136   Wright St. L 62-80 59%     4 - 2 -16.6 -9.4 -8.2
  Nov 22, 2024 138   Texas St. L 80-83 60%     4 - 3 -1.6 +13.6 -15.4
  Nov 24, 2024 309   Portland W 94-67 86%     5 - 3 +19.4 +12.6 +5.2
  Dec 03, 2024 101   @ Saint Joseph's W 77-69 35%     6 - 3 +15.9 +7.9 +7.9
  Dec 07, 2024 119   @ Furman L 72-74 43%    
  Dec 10, 2024 287   Monmouth W 81-68 90%    
  Dec 21, 2024 58   Rutgers L 73-79 30%    
  Dec 30, 2024 131   Akron W 80-75 69%    
  Jan 11, 2025 241   @ Harvard W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 18, 2025 319   @ Dartmouth W 79-69 81%    
  Jan 20, 2025 192   Columbia W 82-74 78%    
  Jan 25, 2025 149   Cornell W 83-77 71%    
  Jan 31, 2025 107   Yale W 78-75 60%    
  Feb 01, 2025 164   Brown W 76-69 75%    
  Feb 07, 2025 279   @ Penn W 78-71 74%    
  Feb 14, 2025 164   @ Brown W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 15, 2025 107   @ Yale L 75-78 39%    
  Feb 21, 2025 241   Harvard W 78-67 84%    
  Feb 22, 2025 319   @ Dartmouth W 79-69 81%    
  Feb 28, 2025 192   @ Columbia W 79-77 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 149   @ Cornell W 81-80 51%    
  Mar 08, 2025 279   Penn W 81-68 88%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 10 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 6.6 12.0 11.8 6.1 1.6 39.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 7.8 10.3 4.6 0.6 25.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 6.5 6.4 1.7 0.1 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.1 3.7 0.7 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.2 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.6 7.9 12.2 16.3 18.6 16.7 12.4 6.1 1.6 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
13-1 100.0% 6.1    6.0 0.2
12-2 94.8% 11.8    9.9 1.9 0.0
11-3 72.1% 12.0    7.1 4.6 0.4
10-4 35.4% 6.6    2.0 3.2 1.3 0.1
9-5 8.4% 1.4    0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 39.5% 39.5 26.7 10.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 1.6% 57.8% 57.4% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 0.9%
13-1 6.1% 54.7% 54.4% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 2.8 0.6%
12-2 12.4% 47.6% 47.6% 12.3 0.0 0.3 3.7 1.7 0.2 6.5
11-3 16.7% 39.5% 39.5% 12.6 0.1 3.0 2.8 0.6 0.0 10.1
10-4 18.6% 33.2% 33.2% 13.0 0.0 1.6 3.2 1.2 0.1 12.5
9-5 16.3% 28.1% 28.1% 13.3 0.6 2.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 11.7
8-6 12.2% 18.8% 18.8% 13.7 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 9.9
7-7 7.9% 6.1% 6.1% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.4
6-8 4.6% 0.5% 0.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 4.6
5-9 2.2% 2.2
4-10 0.9% 0.9
3-11 0.3% 0.3
2-12 0.1% 0.1
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14
Total 100% 30.3% 30.3% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.2 11.7 11.5 4.8 0.9 0.0 69.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 8.4 11.8 18.8 3.5 9.4 22.4 9.4 23.5 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 3.7% 12.0 3.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%