Nevada
Mountain West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#48
Expected Predictive Rating+10.5#58
Pace63.6#317
Improvement-2.1#311

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#57
First Shot+6.8#32
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#272
Layup/Dunks+2.2#108
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#43
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#184
Freethrows+1.9#76
Improvement-1.6#298

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#50
First Shot+5.3#41
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#206
Layups/Dunks+4.0#60
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#90
Freethrows+0.9#126
Improvement-0.6#236
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.9% 2.3% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 4.7% 5.6% 1.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.8% 38.8% 25.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 21.3% 24.0% 12.6%
Average Seed 9.2 9.1 9.9
.500 or above 99.1% 99.5% 97.6%
.500 or above in Conference 94.8% 95.6% 91.7%
Conference Champion 23.2% 25.1% 16.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four6.3% 6.6% 4.8%
First Round32.9% 35.7% 23.1%
Second Round15.8% 17.5% 9.9%
Sweet Sixteen5.2% 5.9% 2.8%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.3% 0.8%
Final Four0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Away) - 78.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 3
Quad 26 - 48 - 7
Quad 38 - 216 - 9
Quad 47 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 139   Sam Houston St. W 91-75 87%     1 - 0 +14.3 +17.5 -2.9
  Nov 09, 2024 75   Washington W 63-53 71%     2 - 0 +14.5 -1.8 +17.0
  Nov 13, 2024 210   Weber St. W 88-58 92%     3 - 0 +24.7 +20.0 +7.4
  Nov 16, 2024 84   Santa Clara W 85-59 75%     4 - 0 +29.4 +19.5 +11.7
  Nov 21, 2024 67   Vanderbilt L 71-73 56%     4 - 1 +6.9 +2.7 +4.1
  Nov 22, 2024 55   Virginia Commonwealth W 64-61 53%     5 - 1 +12.6 +7.8 +5.2
  Nov 24, 2024 81   Oklahoma St. W 90-78 64%     6 - 1 +18.6 +22.1 -3.4
  Dec 02, 2024 74   Washington St. L 57-68 71%     6 - 2 -6.5 -10.9 +4.1
  Dec 07, 2024 181   @ Loyola Marymount W 72-64 78%    
  Dec 11, 2024 120   South Dakota St. W 77-66 84%    
  Dec 14, 2024 294   Texas Southern W 79-59 97%    
  Dec 21, 2024 99   Colorado St. W 71-63 77%    
  Dec 28, 2024 177   @ Wyoming W 72-64 78%    
  Dec 31, 2024 52   Utah St. W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 03, 2025 65   @ New Mexico L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 11, 2025 255   @ Fresno St. W 79-66 87%    
  Jan 14, 2025 286   Air Force W 74-54 97%    
  Jan 18, 2025 194   San Jose St. W 75-60 91%    
  Jan 22, 2025 52   @ Utah St. L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 25, 2025 37   San Diego St. W 66-65 54%    
  Jan 29, 2025 53   @ Boise St. L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 01, 2025 104   UNLV W 72-63 79%    
  Feb 04, 2025 286   @ Air Force W 71-57 89%    
  Feb 11, 2025 255   Fresno St. W 82-63 95%    
  Feb 14, 2025 194   @ San Jose St. W 72-63 79%    
  Feb 18, 2025 99   @ Colorado St. W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 22, 2025 53   Boise St. W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 25, 2025 177   Wyoming W 75-61 89%    
  Feb 28, 2025 104   @ UNLV W 69-66 61%    
  Mar 04, 2025 65   New Mexico W 78-74 65%    
  Mar 08, 2025 37   @ San Diego St. L 63-68 34%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.9 6.4 6.8 4.5 1.7 0.4 23.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 4.8 8.2 5.6 1.6 0.1 21.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.9 7.3 3.5 0.5 0.0 17.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.7 6.1 2.4 0.2 0.0 14.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 3.6 4.3 1.7 0.1 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 2.5 0.9 0.1 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.7 5.0 7.7 11.0 13.6 15.1 14.8 12.5 8.4 4.6 1.7 0.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.7    1.7 0.0
18-2 97.3% 4.5    4.1 0.4
17-3 80.8% 6.8    4.8 1.9 0.1
16-4 51.0% 6.4    2.9 2.8 0.6 0.0
15-5 19.5% 2.9    0.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 3.3% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 23.2% 23.2 14.6 6.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 99.0% 51.4% 47.6% 3.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.0%
19-1 1.7% 98.0% 42.7% 55.4% 5.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.5%
18-2 4.6% 94.5% 42.7% 51.7% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 90.3%
17-3 8.4% 82.0% 34.0% 48.0% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.0 1.5 72.8%
16-4 12.5% 61.7% 27.6% 34.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.4 2.3 0.1 4.8 47.1%
15-5 14.8% 42.8% 21.6% 21.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.2 0.3 8.4 27.1%
14-6 15.1% 26.7% 16.2% 10.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 0.4 11.0 12.6%
13-7 13.6% 16.6% 12.0% 4.6% 11.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 0.4 11.4 5.2%
12-8 11.0% 10.7% 9.0% 1.7% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.3 9.8 1.9%
11-9 7.7% 7.7% 7.2% 0.5% 11.4 0.4 0.2 7.1 0.6%
10-10 5.0% 5.1% 5.0% 0.1% 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.7 0.1%
9-11 2.7% 3.2% 3.1% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6 0.2%
8-12 1.4% 2.0% 2.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 1.4
7-13 0.7% 2.5% 2.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.7
6-14 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 14.0 0.0 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 35.8% 18.4% 17.4% 9.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.7 2.3 3.0 4.7 7.3 11.9 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 64.2 21.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.3 28.1 24.7 37.1 9.0 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 3.6 9.8 4.9 26.8 39.0 9.8 9.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 94.3% 3.9 11.4 2.9 31.4 20.0 11.4 5.7 5.7 5.7