Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.7#52
Expected Predictive Rating+18.1#15
Pace70.9#132
Improvement-3.6#354

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#47
First Shot+4.3#68
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#97
Layup/Dunks+5.5#34
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#277
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#273
Freethrows+3.6#35
Improvement-2.9#356

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#77
First Shot+3.5#79
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#147
Layups/Dunks+6.1#27
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#333
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#338
Freethrows+5.3#1
Improvement-0.7#251
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.2% 2.2% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 6.1% 6.3% 1.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.8% 41.4% 22.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.4% 29.9% 13.7%
Average Seed 9.1 9.1 10.0
.500 or above 99.4% 99.5% 97.2%
.500 or above in Conference 93.3% 93.5% 86.9%
Conference Champion 20.3% 20.6% 10.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four8.9% 9.0% 6.1%
First Round36.2% 36.8% 18.4%
Second Round17.1% 17.5% 6.2%
Sweet Sixteen5.5% 5.6% 2.2%
Elite Eight2.0% 2.0% 0.7%
Final Four0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Home) - 96.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 4
Quad 26 - 38 - 6
Quad 37 - 115 - 8
Quad 49 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 352   Alcorn St. W 101-46 98%     1 - 0 +39.3 +20.5 +18.9
  Nov 09, 2024 205   Charlotte W 103-74 91%     2 - 0 +24.0 +27.7 -3.6
  Nov 18, 2024 190   Montana W 95-83 90%     3 - 0 +7.7 +13.7 -6.9
  Nov 22, 2024 50   Iowa W 77-69 48%     4 - 0 +18.3 +0.4 +17.2
  Nov 28, 2024 88   St. Bonaventure W 72-67 64%     5 - 0 +11.1 +5.2 +6.1
  Nov 29, 2024 77   North Texas W 61-57 60%     6 - 0 +11.2 +2.4 +9.2
  Dec 04, 2024 177   Wyoming W 70-67 89%     7 - 0 1 - 0 -0.9 +6.8 -7.3
  Dec 07, 2024 291   Utah Tech W 84-64 97%    
  Dec 14, 2024 148   South Florida W 81-69 87%    
  Dec 17, 2024 102   UC San Diego W 76-68 78%    
  Dec 22, 2024 42   @ St. Mary's L 67-72 34%    
  Dec 28, 2024 37   @ San Diego St. L 68-73 31%    
  Dec 31, 2024 48   @ Nevada L 69-73 37%    
  Jan 04, 2025 255   Fresno St. W 86-68 95%    
  Jan 07, 2025 194   @ San Jose St. W 76-68 77%    
  Jan 11, 2025 53   Boise St. W 76-73 61%    
  Jan 15, 2025 104   @ UNLV W 73-71 59%    
  Jan 22, 2025 48   Nevada W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 25, 2025 286   @ Air Force W 75-62 88%    
  Jan 29, 2025 104   UNLV W 76-68 77%    
  Feb 01, 2025 65   New Mexico W 84-80 63%    
  Feb 04, 2025 177   @ Wyoming W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 07, 2025 255   @ Fresno St. W 83-71 86%    
  Feb 11, 2025 99   Colorado St. W 75-68 74%    
  Feb 16, 2025 65   @ New Mexico L 81-83 42%    
  Feb 19, 2025 194   San Jose St. W 79-65 89%    
  Feb 22, 2025 37   San Diego St. W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 26, 2025 53   @ Boise St. L 73-76 41%    
  Mar 01, 2025 99   @ Colorado St. W 72-71 55%    
  Mar 08, 2025 286   Air Force W 78-59 95%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.8 5.8 3.8 1.3 0.3 20.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 4.5 7.5 4.9 1.3 0.1 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 5.1 7.3 3.5 0.5 0.0 17.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.9 6.4 2.3 0.2 0.0 15.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.5 4.7 1.7 0.1 12.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.0 2.8 0.8 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.6 5.7 9.0 11.6 14.3 14.8 14.0 11.1 7.1 3.9 1.3 0.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
18-2 97.3% 3.8    3.5 0.3
17-3 82.2% 5.8    4.1 1.6 0.1
16-4 51.9% 5.8    2.7 2.6 0.5 0.0
15-5 19.5% 2.7    0.6 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.4% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.3% 20.3 12.5 5.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 51.6% 48.4% 2.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.3% 99.0% 47.2% 51.7% 4.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.0%
18-2 3.9% 97.7% 36.7% 61.0% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 96.4%
17-3 7.1% 91.0% 32.8% 58.3% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.6 86.7%
16-4 11.1% 78.8% 28.7% 50.1% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 2.1 2.3 1.8 0.1 2.4 70.2%
15-5 14.0% 59.6% 21.2% 38.4% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 3.4 0.2 5.7 48.7%
14-6 14.8% 39.9% 15.9% 23.9% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 3.2 0.4 0.0 8.9 28.5%
13-7 14.3% 23.6% 10.5% 13.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.3 0.3 10.9 14.6%
12-8 11.6% 13.1% 7.2% 6.0% 11.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.3 10.1 6.4%
11-9 9.0% 6.9% 5.3% 1.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 8.4 1.7%
10-10 5.7% 4.5% 4.0% 0.5% 11.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.5 0.5%
9-11 3.6% 2.2% 2.0% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.5 0.1%
8-12 1.8% 1.4% 1.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 1.8
7-13 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 0.8
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 40.8% 16.2% 24.6% 9.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.1 2.9 3.5 5.7 8.2 12.8 1.7 0.0 59.2 29.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.8 41.7 38.9 19.4