Nevada
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.0#98
Expected Predictive Rating+7.7#79
Pace65.1#299
Improvement+1.3#93

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#96
First Shot+1.7#127
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#78
Layup/Dunks-3.5#295
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#20
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#305
Freethrows+4.8#7
Improvement+0.3#148

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#116
First Shot+2.6#90
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#261
Layups/Dunks+4.2#49
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#32
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#241
Freethrows-2.5#323
Improvement+1.0#111
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 6.8% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.6% 0.5%
Average Seed 11.0 10.8 11.2
.500 or above 86.0% 93.9% 81.3%
.500 or above in Conference 62.1% 77.2% 52.9%
Conference Champion 3.9% 7.6% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.1% 0.9%
First Four0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
First Round4.3% 6.3% 3.1%
Second Round0.9% 1.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Home) - 38.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 5
Quad 24 - 55 - 10
Quad 38 - 313 - 12
Quad 46 - 119 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 189 Louisiana Tech W 77-50 82%     1 - 0 +22.2 +14.4 +10.9
  Sat, Nov 8 138 Pacific W 78-77 74%     2 - 0 -0.7 +8.0 -8.7
  Wed, Nov 12 129 Southern Illinois W 86-81 OT 72%     3 - 0 +3.9 +3.5 -0.1
  Sat, Nov 15 77 @Santa Clara L 83-98 30%     3 - 1 -4.6 +14.2 -18.6
  Tue, Nov 18 197 UC Davis L 71-75 83%     3 - 2 -9.4 -7.3 -1.8
  Sat, Nov 22 159 UC Santa Barbara W 77-64 78%     4 - 2 +10.0 +1.9 +8.4
  Thu, Nov 27 48 Washington L 66-83 28%     4 - 3 -6.0 -4.1 -1.5
  Fri, Nov 28 94 San Francisco W 81-65 48%     5 - 3 +21.6 +17.4 +5.6
  Tue, Dec 2 85 UC San Diego W 76-70 56%     6 - 3 +9.6 +11.2 -1.1
  Sun, Dec 7 149 @Washington St. W 78-64 55%     7 - 3 +17.8 +15.1 +4.2
  Sat, Dec 13 140 Duquesne W 78-75 74%     8 - 3 +1.3 +6.7 -5.4
  Sat, Dec 20 46 Boise St. L 68-71 38%    
  Tue, Dec 30 70 @Colorado St. L 69-75 29%    
  Sat, Jan 3 181 @Fresno St. W 75-72 63%    
  Tue, Jan 6 52 San Diego St. L 72-74 41%    
  Sat, Jan 10 90 Wyoming W 74-72 58%    
  Wed, Jan 14 44 @Utah St. L 69-78 19%    
  Sat, Jan 17 322 @Air Force W 73-61 86%    
  Tue, Jan 20 188 San Jose St. W 76-66 82%    
  Sat, Jan 24 74 @New Mexico L 72-78 30%    
  Tue, Jan 27 91 Grand Canyon W 72-70 57%    
  Fri, Jan 30 139 UNLV W 80-73 73%    
  Tue, Feb 3 46 @Boise St. L 65-74 20%    
  Sat, Feb 7 181 Fresno St. W 78-69 81%    
  Sat, Feb 14 52 @San Diego St. L 69-77 23%    
  Tue, Feb 17 188 @San Jose St. W 73-69 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 44 Utah St. L 72-75 38%    
  Tue, Feb 24 74 New Mexico W 76-75 51%    
  Sat, Feb 28 139 @UNLV W 77-76 52%    
  Tue, Mar 3 90 @Wyoming L 71-75 36%    
  Sat, Mar 7 322 Air Force W 76-58 94%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 2.5 1.8 0.6 0.0 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 3.7 2.3 0.5 0.0 8.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.9 3.2 0.6 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 5.1 4.6 0.8 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 5.4 5.6 1.2 0.0 13.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 5.2 5.8 1.7 0.1 14.3 7th
8th 0.2 1.7 4.6 5.0 1.6 0.1 13.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.5 3.6 1.1 0.1 9.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.3 7.2 10.3 13.0 14.5 14.2 12.2 8.9 6.1 3.4 2.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 100.0% 0.3    0.2 0.0
17-3 91.3% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 68.9% 1.3    0.8 0.5 0.1
15-5 31.5% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 10.0% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.3% 76.3% 21.1% 55.3% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 70.0%
17-3 0.5% 49.4% 18.8% 30.6% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 37.7%
16-4 2.0% 25.8% 16.9% 8.9% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.4 10.7%
15-5 3.4% 20.2% 14.4% 5.8% 10.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 2.7 6.8%
14-6 6.1% 12.8% 11.2% 1.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 5.3 1.8%
13-7 8.9% 6.6% 6.1% 0.5% 11.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.3 0.5%
12-8 12.2% 4.8% 4.8% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 11.6 0.1%
11-9 14.2% 3.0% 3.0% 11.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 13.8
10-10 14.5% 1.8% 1.8% 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 14.3
9-11 13.0% 1.1% 1.1% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.8
8-12 10.3% 1.0% 1.0% 12.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.2
7-13 7.2% 0.3% 0.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 7.2
6-14 4.3% 0.3% 0.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 4.2
5-15 2.0% 2.0
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 4.6% 3.8% 0.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.4 0.9%