Preseason Rankings
Nevada
Mountain West
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.2#98
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.6#337
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#122
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#77
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.6% 10.2% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.7% 4.6% 1.0%
Average Seed 9.9 9.8 10.8
.500 or above 67.9% 74.2% 48.2%
.500 or above in Conference 61.0% 65.2% 47.8%
Conference Champion 5.9% 7.0% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 2.0% 4.5%
First Four1.8% 2.1% 0.7%
First Round7.7% 9.1% 3.1%
Second Round2.7% 3.3% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Home) - 75.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 4
Quad 23 - 54 - 9
Quad 37 - 411 - 13
Quad 47 - 118 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2025 143   Louisiana Tech W 66-59 76%    
  Nov 08, 2025 219   Pacific W 72-60 86%    
  Nov 12, 2025 141   Southern Illinois W 70-63 74%    
  Nov 15, 2025 105   @ Santa Clara L 68-70 42%    
  Nov 18, 2025 252   UC Davis W 70-57 88%    
  Nov 22, 2025 135   UC Santa Barbara W 68-62 71%    
  Nov 27, 2025 48   Washington L 65-71 30%    
  Dec 02, 2025 117   UC San Diego W 67-62 68%    
  Dec 07, 2025 124   @ Washington St. W 71-70 50%    
  Dec 13, 2025 115   Duquesne W 66-61 66%    
  Dec 20, 2025 62   Boise St. L 65-66 46%    
  Dec 30, 2025 94   @ Colorado St. L 63-66 39%    
  Jan 03, 2026 198   @ Fresno St. W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 06, 2026 38   San Diego St. L 61-66 34%    
  Jan 10, 2026 155   Wyoming W 67-59 76%    
  Jan 14, 2026 54   @ Utah St. L 65-73 25%    
  Jan 17, 2026 280   @ Air Force W 67-58 77%    
  Jan 20, 2026 159   San Jose St. W 69-61 76%    
  Jan 24, 2026 79   @ New Mexico L 68-73 34%    
  Jan 27, 2026 80   Grand Canyon W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 30, 2026 86   UNLV W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 03, 2026 62   @ Boise St. L 62-69 28%    
  Feb 07, 2026 198   Fresno St. W 75-65 80%    
  Feb 14, 2026 38   @ San Diego St. L 58-69 18%    
  Feb 17, 2026 159   @ San Jose St. W 66-64 58%    
  Feb 21, 2026 54   Utah St. L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 24, 2026 79   New Mexico W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 28, 2026 86   @ UNLV L 63-67 37%    
  Mar 03, 2026 155   @ Wyoming W 64-62 57%    
  Mar 07, 2026 280   Air Force W 70-55 89%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 5.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.3 3.6 3.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 9.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.2 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.7 3.9 0.9 0.1 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.5 4.0 0.8 0.0 11.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.6 3.5 0.8 0.0 11.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.2 3.1 0.7 0.0 10.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.6 2.1 0.5 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 3.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.3 5.1 7.3 8.9 10.6 11.0 11.5 10.4 8.8 7.1 5.5 3.3 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 94.6% 1.1    1.0 0.1
17-3 75.0% 1.4    1.0 0.4 0.0
16-4 49.3% 1.6    0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 21.2% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1
14-6 3.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 3.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 38.7% 61.3% 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 92.7% 44.2% 48.5% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.9%
18-2 1.1% 83.8% 31.3% 52.5% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 76.4%
17-3 1.9% 65.0% 26.5% 38.5% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.7 52.3%
16-4 3.3% 46.5% 21.7% 24.8% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.7 31.7%
15-5 5.5% 27.4% 15.8% 11.6% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.1 4.0 13.8%
14-6 7.1% 15.8% 10.5% 5.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.0 5.8%
13-7 8.8% 7.5% 5.9% 1.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.2 1.7%
12-8 10.4% 5.7% 5.3% 0.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.8 0.4%
11-9 11.5% 2.7% 2.7% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.2 0.1%
10-10 11.0% 1.8% 1.8% 0.1% 11.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.8 0.1%
9-11 10.6% 0.9% 0.9% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5
8-12 8.9% 0.5% 0.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8
7-13 7.3% 0.4% 0.4% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3
6-14 5.1% 5.1
5-15 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.3
4-16 2.1% 2.1
3-17 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.6% 5.1% 3.5% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.4 3.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.5 75.5 24.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 3.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 3.0 100.0