Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.7#53
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#82
Pace67.2#231
Improvement-3.5#353

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#44
First Shot+4.2#72
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#84
Layup/Dunks+6.3#22
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#357
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#289
Freethrows+5.7#3
Improvement-2.0#315

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#81
First Shot+2.6#99
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#105
Layups/Dunks-1.1#211
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#159
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#105
Freethrows+1.1#115
Improvement-1.6#307
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.1% 1.6% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 3.0% 4.2% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.1% 34.9% 20.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 15.5% 20.5% 8.9%
Average Seed 9.5 9.3 10.0
.500 or above 97.0% 98.7% 94.6%
.500 or above in Conference 92.4% 94.2% 89.7%
Conference Champion 19.1% 22.1% 14.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four5.0% 6.2% 3.3%
First Round26.6% 31.9% 19.3%
Second Round12.5% 15.7% 7.9%
Sweet Sixteen4.1% 5.4% 2.3%
Elite Eight1.6% 2.1% 0.9%
Final Four0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Neutral) - 58.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 4
Quad 25 - 37 - 8
Quad 36 - 213 - 10
Quad 48 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 144   Oakland W 87-43 86%     1 - 0 +42.0 +19.9 +25.1
  Nov 09, 2024 64   @ San Francisco L 73-84 41%     1 - 1 +1.1 +8.8 -8.0
  Nov 17, 2024 28   Clemson W 84-71 48%     2 - 1 +23.1 +15.6 +7.4
  Nov 24, 2024 264   Hampton W 83-69 92%     3 - 1 +8.2 +9.3 -0.9
  Nov 25, 2024 120   South Dakota St. W 83-82 75%     4 - 1 +3.5 +11.6 -8.1
  Nov 26, 2024 145   Boston College L 61-63 80%     4 - 2 -1.1 -9.4 +8.3
  Dec 03, 2024 291   Utah Tech W 87-64 95%     5 - 2 +13.2 +17.4 -2.1
  Dec 07, 2024 74   Washington St. W 75-73 58%    
  Dec 15, 2024 42   St. Mary's L 67-69 44%    
  Dec 17, 2024 294   Texas Southern W 81-61 97%    
  Dec 21, 2024 286   Air Force W 76-57 96%    
  Dec 28, 2024 194   @ San Jose St. W 75-67 78%    
  Dec 31, 2024 177   @ Wyoming W 75-67 76%    
  Jan 04, 2025 37   San Diego St. W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 07, 2025 104   UNLV W 74-66 77%    
  Jan 11, 2025 52   @ Utah St. L 73-76 39%    
  Jan 14, 2025 177   Wyoming W 78-64 89%    
  Jan 17, 2025 65   @ New Mexico L 79-81 42%    
  Jan 22, 2025 99   @ Colorado St. W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 29, 2025 48   Nevada W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 01, 2025 255   Fresno St. W 84-66 95%    
  Feb 04, 2025 104   @ UNLV W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 07, 2025 194   San Jose St. W 78-64 90%    
  Feb 15, 2025 37   @ San Diego St. L 66-71 32%    
  Feb 19, 2025 65   New Mexico W 82-78 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 48   @ Nevada L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 26, 2025 52   Utah St. W 76-73 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 255   @ Fresno St. W 81-69 85%    
  Mar 04, 2025 286   @ Air Force W 73-60 88%    
  Mar 07, 2025 99   Colorado St. W 73-66 74%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.5 5.8 3.6 1.2 0.2 19.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.5 7.1 4.5 1.2 0.1 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.2 7.3 3.3 0.4 0.0 17.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.1 6.2 2.5 0.2 0.0 15.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.3 4.8 1.8 0.1 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.2 3.0 1.0 0.1 9.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.1 4.0 6.4 9.2 12.2 14.2 14.9 13.0 10.4 7.0 3.7 1.2 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
18-2 97.1% 3.6    3.2 0.4
17-3 82.8% 5.8    4.0 1.6 0.1
16-4 52.7% 5.5    2.4 2.5 0.5 0.0
15-5 18.1% 2.4    0.6 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.1% 19.1 11.6 5.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 43.8% 56.2% 3.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.2% 97.7% 44.2% 53.4% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.8%
18-2 3.7% 91.7% 40.3% 51.4% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 86.0%
17-3 7.0% 77.3% 33.1% 44.1% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.0 1.6 66.0%
16-4 10.4% 58.1% 27.0% 31.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.1 0.1 4.4 42.7%
15-5 13.0% 39.4% 22.0% 17.4% 10.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.7 0.2 7.9 22.3%
14-6 14.9% 23.7% 15.7% 8.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 0.3 11.4 9.5%
13-7 14.2% 15.1% 12.1% 3.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.4 12.1 3.4%
12-8 12.2% 9.3% 8.4% 0.9% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 11.0 1.0%
11-9 9.2% 5.5% 5.4% 0.2% 11.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 8.7 0.2%
10-10 6.4% 3.8% 3.6% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.2 0.2%
9-11 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.8
8-12 2.1% 2.5% 2.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
7-13 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
6-14 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-15 0.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 29.1% 16.1% 13.0% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.5 2.3 3.5 6.1 10.7 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.9 15.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.8 4.3 43.5 17.4 34.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 3.5 20.0 30.0 35.0 10.0 5.0