Nicholls St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.2#205
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#184
Pace69.6#138
Improvement+2.9#62

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#198
First Shot-2.8#261
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#75
Layup/Dunks+0.5#159
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#193
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#202
Freethrows-2.3#312
Improvement+2.3#70

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#212
First Shot-1.4#218
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#173
Layups/Dunks+0.8#137
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#200
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#150
Freethrows-3.3#349
Improvement+0.5#165
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.9% 9.2% 5.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.5 15.1
.500 or above 88.3% 96.6% 82.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 100.0% 99.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round6.8% 9.1% 5.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SE Louisiana (Away) - 41.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 01 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 412 - 416 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 33   @ New Mexico L 84-91 6%     0 - 1 +8.6 +6.3 +3.5
  Nov 08, 2024 151   South Alabama L 64-70 47%     0 - 2 -7.6 -2.5 -5.5
  Nov 14, 2024 241   @ Northern Kentucky W 61-59 50%     1 - 2 -0.2 -9.2 +9.0
  Nov 15, 2024 49   @ Cincinnati L 49-86 8%     1 - 3 -23.4 -11.4 -14.5
  Nov 20, 2024 161   Towson L 64-70 49%     1 - 4 -8.0 -2.0 -6.6
  Nov 30, 2024 298   @ Louisiana W 76-75 62%     2 - 4 -4.5 +7.4 -11.8
  Dec 05, 2024 218   SE Louisiana W 67-64 63%     3 - 4 1 - 0 -2.5 -10.5 +7.8
  Dec 07, 2024 350   New Orleans W 73-70 89%     4 - 4 2 - 0 -12.6 -7.4 -5.1
  Dec 18, 2024 13   @ Gonzaga L 72-102 3%     4 - 5 -9.9 -0.5 -6.4
  Dec 30, 2024 149   @ Seattle W 71-69 29%     5 - 5 +5.5 +2.3 +3.2
  Jan 04, 2025 267   @ Northwestern St. L 66-68 55%     5 - 6 2 - 1 -5.5 +0.6 -6.3
  Jan 06, 2025 339   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 83-61 75%     6 - 6 3 - 1 +12.8 +14.9 +0.0
  Jan 11, 2025 87   @ McNeese St. L 71-80 15%     6 - 7 3 - 2 +0.1 +0.8 -0.5
  Jan 13, 2025 287   @ Incarnate Word W 88-82 59%     7 - 7 4 - 2 +1.4 +11.5 -10.1
  Jan 18, 2025 250   Stephen F. Austin W 73-61 70%     8 - 7 5 - 2 +4.5 +3.7 +1.1
  Jan 20, 2025 212   Lamar L 74-78 61%     8 - 8 5 - 3 -9.2 +0.8 -10.0
  Jan 25, 2025 209   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 57-61 42%     8 - 9 5 - 4 -4.0 -13.3 +9.1
  Jan 27, 2025 266   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 82-75 55%     9 - 9 6 - 4 +3.5 +6.1 -2.6
  Feb 01, 2025 87   McNeese St. W 71-63 27%     10 - 9 7 - 4 +12.1 +5.0 +7.6
  Feb 03, 2025 289   Houston Christian W 75-67 76%     11 - 9 8 - 4 -1.6 +6.4 -6.9
  Feb 08, 2025 339   Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-65 86%     12 - 9 9 - 4 +1.9 +9.5 -6.3
  Feb 10, 2025 267   Northwestern St. L 60-72 73%     12 - 10 9 - 5 -20.5 -11.9 -9.1
  Feb 15, 2025 218   @ SE Louisiana L 71-73 41%    
  Feb 17, 2025 350   @ New Orleans W 81-73 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 266   UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-74 73%    
  Feb 24, 2025 209   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76-73 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 250   @ Stephen F. Austin W 68-67 49%    
  Mar 03, 2025 212   @ Lamar L 69-71 41%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.6 9.8 13.4 3.6 27.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 6.5 15.1 2.6 24.4 3rd
4th 0.0 2.9 15.3 4.7 0.1 23.1 4th
5th 0.8 8.9 5.1 0.1 14.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.9 4.9 0.4 8.3 6th
7th 0.3 1.3 0.4 1.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.5 5.0 17.2 27.9 29.7 16.1 3.6 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.3% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 3.6% 22.5% 22.5% 13.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.8
14-6 16.1% 13.4% 13.4% 14.6 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.1 13.9
13-7 29.7% 7.1% 7.1% 14.9 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.3 27.6
12-8 27.9% 4.0% 4.0% 15.2 0.1 0.8 0.3 26.8
11-9 17.2% 3.1% 3.1% 15.5 0.3 0.3 16.6
10-10 5.0% 2.8% 2.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 4.9
9-11 0.5% 0.5
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 14.8 0.5 1.6 3.8 1.0 93.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 13.6 47.6 46.3 6.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%
Lose Out 0.2%