SE Louisiana
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#273
Expected Predictive Rating-8.5#294
Pace67.5#236
Improvement+1.8#69

Offense
Total Offense-5.5#317
First Shot-2.1#229
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#348
Layup/Dunks-3.5#295
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#33
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#323
Freethrows+3.5#22
Improvement+1.7#65

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#178
First Shot+0.0#176
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#223
Layups/Dunks+2.8#86
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#282
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#113
Freethrows-3.5#345
Improvement+0.1#179
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.8% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 5.2% 22.7% 4.8%
.500 or above in Conference 20.3% 37.0% 20.0%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 22.3% 12.9% 22.5%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round0.6% 1.8% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LSU (Away) - 2.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 62 - 12
Quad 48 - 811 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 61 @Mississippi L 58-88 6%     0 - 1 -17.9 -5.3 -14.2
  Fri, Nov 7 326 @Louisiana L 52-58 54%     0 - 2 -12.8 -10.6 -3.5
  Mon, Nov 10 128 @Georgia Tech L 60-70 15%     0 - 3 -4.9 -12.5 +8.4
  Sat, Nov 15 84 @Mississippi St. L 68-75 8%     0 - 4 +2.6 -4.2 +7.2
  Wed, Nov 26 108 @UNC Wilmington L 57-70 12%     0 - 5 -6.3 -7.3 -0.5
  Fri, Nov 28 362 Gardner-Webb W 76-68 82%     1 - 5 -7.5 -5.8 -1.9
  Sat, Nov 29 204 Navy W 69-65 39%     2 - 5 +1.0 +2.0 -0.6
  Sun, Dec 7 274 Northwestern St. L 68-76 62%     2 - 6 0 - 1 -17.0 -7.2 -10.3
  Sat, Dec 13 272 @Houston Christian W 74-71 OT 38%     3 - 6 1 - 1 +0.1 -2.9 +3.0
  Mon, Dec 15 295 East Texas A&M L 69-70 67%     3 - 7 1 - 2 -11.3 -1.4 -10.0
  Fri, Dec 19 34 @LSU L 60-82 2%    
  Tue, Dec 30 175 @Incarnate Word L 65-73 23%    
  Sat, Jan 3 137 Stephen F. Austin L 67-71 34%    
  Mon, Jan 5 246 Lamar W 66-64 57%    
  Sat, Jan 10 71 @McNeese St. L 60-77 6%    
  Mon, Jan 12 247 New Orleans W 74-72 57%    
  Sat, Jan 17 213 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 64-70 31%    
  Mon, Jan 19 193 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 67-74 26%    
  Sat, Jan 24 257 Nicholls St. W 70-68 59%    
  Mon, Jan 26 71 McNeese St. L 63-74 16%    
  Sat, Jan 31 137 @Stephen F. Austin L 64-74 17%    
  Mon, Feb 2 246 @Lamar L 63-67 35%    
  Sat, Feb 7 272 Houston Christian W 70-67 61%    
  Mon, Feb 9 175 Incarnate Word L 68-70 43%    
  Sat, Feb 14 274 @Northwestern St. L 67-70 40%    
  Mon, Feb 16 295 @East Texas A&M L 68-70 44%    
  Sat, Feb 21 193 UT Rio Grande Valley L 70-71 46%    
  Mon, Feb 23 213 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 67-66 51%    
  Sat, Feb 28 257 @Nicholls St. L 67-71 38%    
  Mon, Mar 2 247 @New Orleans L 71-75 36%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 8 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.6 3.3 0.7 0.1 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.7 4.4 1.1 0.1 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.4 5.5 1.9 0.1 11.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.9 2.6 0.2 0.0 12.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.2 6.0 3.5 0.5 14.0 10th
11th 0.2 1.1 3.8 5.5 3.4 0.6 0.0 14.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.8 2.2 3.9 3.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 13.7 12th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.5 5.1 8.3 11.4 13.4 14.0 13.1 10.9 8.4 5.8 3.3 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-4 80.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-5 41.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-6 24.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-7 4.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-5 0.1% 16.1% 16.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-6 0.3% 13.0% 13.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-7 0.7% 10.9% 10.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-8 1.7% 4.5% 4.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
13-9 3.3% 3.8% 3.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.2
12-10 5.8% 1.8% 1.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.7
11-11 8.4% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.3
10-12 10.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.9
9-13 13.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.1
8-14 14.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.0
7-15 13.4% 13.4
6-16 11.4% 11.4
5-17 8.3% 8.3
4-18 5.1% 5.1
3-19 2.5% 2.5
2-20 0.8% 0.8
1-21 0.1% 0.1
0-22
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%