Lamar
Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#212
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#199
Pace65.3#257
Improvement+1.2#137

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#266
First Shot-7.8#354
After Offensive Rebound+4.3#12
Layup/Dunks-3.0#291
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#43
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#302
Freethrows-3.5#353
Improvement+0.4#168

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#153
First Shot+0.6#158
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#180
Layups/Dunks+0.7#140
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#219
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#79
Freethrows-2.3#326
Improvement+0.8#149
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.8% 9.6% 6.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 82.9% 90.4% 64.8%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.8% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 1.0%
First Round8.6% 9.5% 6.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Away) - 70.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 34 - 8
Quad 412 - 616 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 18   @ Texas A&M L 71-97 3%     0 - 1 -7.0 +7.0 -13.3
  Nov 17, 2024 180   Sam Houston St. L 72-85 53%     0 - 2 -16.5 -0.7 -16.3
  Nov 22, 2024 98   @ Akron L 72-79 17%     0 - 3 +0.3 -3.2 +4.0
  Nov 23, 2024 316   Alabama St. L 75-77 73%     0 - 4 -11.1 -0.7 -10.4
  Nov 24, 2024 202   Nebraska Omaha L 59-65 47%     0 - 5 -8.0 -12.4 +3.9
  Dec 05, 2024 209   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 65-61 39%     1 - 5 1 - 0 +4.0 -5.0 +9.1
  Dec 07, 2024 266   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 84-52 53%     2 - 5 2 - 0 +28.5 +12.4 +17.5
  Dec 14, 2024 304   @ Louisiana W 74-45 61%     3 - 5 +23.2 +8.9 +18.1
  Dec 17, 2024 256   @ Southern Miss W 69-65 51%     4 - 5 +1.0 -1.2 +2.3
  Dec 21, 2024 12   @ Texas Tech L 57-101 3%     4 - 6 -23.9 -6.7 -17.8
  Jan 04, 2025 289   Houston Christian W 63-61 74%     5 - 6 3 - 0 -7.5 -12.3 +4.9
  Jan 06, 2025 287   Incarnate Word W 72-58 74%     6 - 6 4 - 0 +4.5 -1.5 +7.3
  Jan 11, 2025 249   Stephen F. Austin L 63-72 68%     6 - 7 4 - 1 -16.5 -3.7 -13.5
  Jan 13, 2025 350   New Orleans L 62-68 88%     6 - 8 4 - 2 -21.5 -14.7 -7.3
  Jan 18, 2025 87   @ McNeese St. L 64-75 14%     6 - 9 4 - 3 -2.0 +2.9 -6.0
  Jan 20, 2025 206   @ Nicholls St. W 78-74 38%     7 - 9 5 - 3 +4.3 +5.4 -1.1
  Jan 25, 2025 340   Texas A&M - Commerce W 61-58 OT 86%     8 - 9 6 - 3 -11.1 -19.3 +8.1
  Jan 27, 2025 267   Northwestern St. W 69-59 71%     9 - 9 7 - 3 +1.5 +4.1 -1.1
  Feb 01, 2025 249   @ Stephen F. Austin W 67-62 49%     10 - 9 8 - 3 +2.5 +0.3 +2.3
  Feb 03, 2025 215   @ SE Louisiana L 79-81 41%     10 - 10 8 - 4 -2.5 +9.8 -12.4
  Feb 08, 2025 266   UT Rio Grande Valley W 70-68 71%     11 - 10 9 - 4 -6.4 -4.5 -1.8
  Feb 10, 2025 209   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 67-56 58%     12 - 10 10 - 4 +6.0 -1.0 +8.2
  Feb 15, 2025 340   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 69-63 71%    
  Feb 17, 2025 267   @ Northwestern St. W 64-63 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 289   @ Houston Christian W 68-66 55%    
  Feb 24, 2025 287   @ Incarnate Word W 70-68 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 87   McNeese St. L 63-70 27%    
  Mar 03, 2025 206   Nicholls St. W 71-69 60%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1st
2nd 0.7 11.4 20.9 12.3 2.2 47.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 7.3 16.1 4.6 0.4 28.5 3rd
4th 1.3 9.5 2.4 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.1 3.8 2.5 0.1 6.5 5th
6th 0.6 2.4 0.2 3.1 6th
7th 0.6 0.2 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 1.2 7.9 20.2 29.8 25.5 12.8 2.6 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 15.8% 0.4    0.0 0.4 0.0
15-5 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
14-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 2.6% 19.7% 19.7% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.1
15-5 12.8% 14.9% 14.9% 14.7 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.1 10.9
14-6 25.5% 12.4% 12.4% 15.2 0.0 0.2 2.1 0.8 22.3
13-7 29.8% 7.3% 7.3% 15.4 0.0 1.2 1.0 27.6
12-8 20.2% 3.9% 3.9% 15.5 0.4 0.4 19.4
11-9 7.9% 2.4% 2.4% 15.8 0.0 0.2 7.7
10-10 1.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.2
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 1.1 5.0 2.5 91.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 13.8 2.0 33.3 47.1 17.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%
Lose Out 0.6%