Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#229
Expected Predictive Rating-6.3#261
Pace74.0#65
Improvement-2.0#306

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#242
First Shot-4.4#302
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#79
Layup/Dunks+0.7#153
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#81
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#327
Freethrows-1.6#285
Improvement-0.5#229

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#215
First Shot-0.9#211
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#225
Layups/Dunks+0.9#143
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#240
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#40
Freethrows-5.6#362
Improvement-1.4#290
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.8% 20.6% 11.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 52.3% 68.4% 42.5%
.500 or above in Conference 74.0% 86.3% 66.4%
Conference Champion 14.2% 23.9% 8.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 0.7% 2.9%
First Four4.0% 4.6% 3.6%
First Round13.0% 18.6% 9.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Away) - 38.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 413 - 714 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 33 @Saint Louis L 67-92 4%     0 - 1 -8.8 -4.1 -2.3
  Fri, Nov 7 50 @Missouri L 84-89 6%     0 - 2 +8.9 +7.4 +2.0
  Sat, Nov 15 130 St. Thomas L 72-84 39%     0 - 3 -13.3 -7.9 -4.4
  Tue, Nov 18 23 @Iowa L 70-99 3%     0 - 4 -10.5 +7.8 -19.0
  Tue, Nov 25 252 Cal Poly W 84-68 55%     1 - 4 +10.7 +2.5 +7.1
  Wed, Nov 26 269 @Northern Arizona L 72-79 45%     1 - 5 -9.8 -0.3 -9.5
  Sat, Nov 29 142 Lipscomb L 77-88 41%     1 - 6 -12.8 -5.5 -5.9
  Sat, Dec 6 246 @Chattanooga W 74-70 42%     2 - 6 +2.0 +2.9 -0.7
  Thu, Dec 18 240 @Tennessee Tech L 74-85 41%     2 - 7 0 - 1 -12.7 -1.5 -10.9
  Sat, Dec 20 226 @Tennessee St. L 74-77 38%    
  Thu, Jan 1 325 Eastern Illinois W 76-67 80%    
  Sat, Jan 3 356 Western Illinois W 78-65 88%    
  Thu, Jan 8 339 @Southern Indiana W 78-74 64%    
  Sat, Jan 10 310 @Morehead St. W 76-74 56%    
  Thu, Jan 15 225 Lindenwood W 80-77 59%    
  Sat, Jan 17 243 SIU Edwardsville W 73-69 64%    
  Tue, Jan 20 256 Tennessee Martin W 74-70 65%    
  Thu, Jan 22 309 Arkansas Little Rock W 76-69 75%    
  Thu, Jan 29 356 @Western Illinois W 75-68 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 325 @Eastern Illinois W 73-70 59%    
  Thu, Feb 5 310 Morehead St. W 79-71 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 339 Southern Indiana W 81-71 81%    
  Thu, Feb 12 243 @SIU Edwardsville L 70-72 42%    
  Sat, Feb 14 225 @Lindenwood L 77-80 39%    
  Tue, Feb 17 256 @Tennessee Martin L 71-73 44%    
  Sat, Feb 21 309 @Arkansas Little Rock W 73-72 55%    
  Sat, Feb 28 240 Tennessee Tech W 79-75 63%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 11 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.8 4.2 3.0 1.1 0.2 14.2 1st
2nd 0.2 2.2 5.5 4.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 14.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.3 6.0 4.5 1.1 0.1 14.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.8 4.6 1.1 0.1 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.9 4.4 1.0 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.6 4.8 1.2 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.9 1.2 0.1 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.1 1.3 0.1 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.7 4.3 7.1 9.9 12.9 14.0 14.0 12.7 9.7 6.2 3.3 1.1 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-3 98.8% 1.1    1.0 0.1
16-4 92.2% 3.0    2.5 0.5 0.0
15-5 68.5% 4.2    2.6 1.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 39.3% 3.8    1.4 1.7 0.6 0.1
13-7 13.0% 1.7    0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.2% 14.2 8.1 4.3 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.2% 62.1% 62.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-3 1.1% 51.2% 51.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-4 3.3% 43.3% 43.3% 14.7 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.1 1.9
15-5 6.2% 37.2% 37.2% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.8 3.9
14-6 9.7% 32.3% 32.3% 15.6 0.1 1.2 1.8 6.6
13-7 12.7% 23.1% 23.1% 15.7 0.0 0.8 2.1 9.8
12-8 14.0% 13.7% 13.7% 15.9 0.0 0.3 1.6 12.1
11-9 14.0% 8.9% 8.9% 15.9 0.1 1.1 12.7
10-10 12.9% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7 12.2
9-11 9.9% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.3 9.6
8-12 7.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 7.0
7-13 4.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.3
6-14 2.7% 2.7
5-15 1.2% 1.2
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.3 1.1 4.7 8.7 85.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.8 27.8 61.1 11.1