UMKC
Summit League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#235
Expected Predictive Rating-7.7#294
Pace63.1#315
Improvement+2.0#91

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#263
First Shot-5.6#325
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#48
Layup/Dunks-10.3#364
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#248
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#49
Freethrows+1.1#108
Improvement+1.1#133

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#199
First Shot+0.3#177
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#281
Layups/Dunks-1.6#243
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#105
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#127
Freethrows-0.5#224
Improvement+1.0#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 4.1% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.9% 2.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.0% 1.2% 9.6%
First Four3.1% 3.7% 2.6%
First Round2.2% 3.0% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Away) - 43.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 73 - 12
Quad 47 - 710 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 7   @ Iowa St. L 56-82 2%     0 - 1 -4.9 -1.7 -4.6
  Nov 16, 2024 29   @ Creighton L 56-79 3%     0 - 2 -5.8 -8.0 +2.4
  Nov 22, 2024 248   American L 60-64 53%     0 - 3 -9.0 -13.1 +3.9
  Nov 23, 2024 276   Albany L 65-67 58%     0 - 4 -8.3 -4.8 -3.7
  Nov 30, 2024 227   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 59-80 38%     0 - 5 -22.1 -18.5 -1.7
  Dec 04, 2024 263   Idaho L 77-82 65%     0 - 6 -13.2 -1.1 -12.2
  Dec 07, 2024 192   @ Montana St. L 62-74 32%     0 - 7 -11.3 -2.5 -10.3
  Dec 10, 2024 314   @ Portland W 69-64 59%     1 - 7 -1.4 -4.6 +3.5
  Dec 14, 2024 301   Bowling Green W 85-77 73%     2 - 7 -2.6 +11.0 -13.2
  Dec 17, 2024 128   @ Wichita St. W 74-64 21%     3 - 7 +14.4 +8.9 +6.2
  Dec 21, 2024 162   East Tennessee St. W 73-66 42%     4 - 7 +4.9 +12.8 -6.7
  Jan 02, 2025 258   South Dakota W 68-54 64%     5 - 7 1 - 0 +6.1 -6.8 +14.1
  Jan 04, 2025 315   Oral Roberts W 90-67 76%     6 - 7 2 - 0 +11.5 +14.1 -1.2
  Jan 08, 2025 202   @ Nebraska Omaha L 58-77 33%     6 - 8 2 - 1 -18.6 -13.5 -6.1
  Jan 16, 2025 142   @ North Dakota St. L 64-71 23%     6 - 9 2 - 2 -3.3 -9.3 +5.7
  Jan 18, 2025 268   @ North Dakota L 72-76 48%     6 - 10 2 - 3 -7.6 +0.4 -8.4
  Jan 23, 2025 108   South Dakota St. L 64-65 30%     6 - 11 2 - 4 +0.3 -5.1 +5.3
  Jan 25, 2025 133   St. Thomas L 65-68 37%     6 - 12 2 - 5 -3.8 -5.7 +1.6
  Jan 30, 2025 330   @ Denver L 68-69 65%     6 - 13 2 - 6 -9.1 -4.1 -5.1
  Feb 01, 2025 315   @ Oral Roberts L 67-73 59%     6 - 14 2 - 7 -12.6 -4.8 -8.4
  Feb 06, 2025 142   North Dakota St. L 72-78 39%     6 - 15 2 - 8 -7.3 +3.4 -11.5
  Feb 08, 2025 268   North Dakota W 80-69 67%     7 - 15 3 - 8 +2.5 +4.2 -0.9
  Feb 13, 2025 258   @ South Dakota L 78-79 43%    
  Feb 19, 2025 202   Nebraska Omaha W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 23, 2025 108   @ South Dakota St. L 65-75 15%    
  Feb 27, 2025 330   Denver W 73-64 82%    
  Mar 01, 2025 133   @ St. Thomas L 69-77 21%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 5 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 1.7 3.4 0.6 5.7 5th
6th 2.5 20.2 22.1 4.7 0.2 49.7 6th
7th 0.5 16.2 17.2 2.6 0.1 36.5 7th
8th 2.8 3.9 0.4 7.0 8th
9th 0.9 0.1 1.0 9th
Total 4.1 22.6 37.7 26.5 8.2 0.9 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.9% 14.8% 14.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.8
7-9 8.2% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5 7.7
6-10 26.5% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 1.1 25.4
5-11 37.7% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 1.0 36.8
4-12 22.6% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.4 22.2
3-13 4.1% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 4.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.2 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%