Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.6#223
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#191
Pace69.9#150
Improvement+1.7#101

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#303
First Shot-5.1#312
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#154
Layup/Dunks+2.5#90
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#263
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#334
Freethrows-0.8#234
Improvement+0.7#133

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#139
First Shot+2.4#104
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#295
Layups/Dunks+3.4#61
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#320
Freethrows+0.4#155
Improvement+1.0#130
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.9% 33.4% 26.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 88.1% 92.9% 79.1%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.9% 99.1%
Conference Champion 55.2% 66.7% 33.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.9% 7.9% 11.0%
First Round26.5% 29.7% 20.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bethune-Cookman (Home) - 65.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 21 - 11 - 5
Quad 31 - 11 - 7
Quad 416 - 618 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 258   @ South Dakota L 79-93 45%     0 - 1 -16.3 -9.7 -5.1
  Nov 07, 2024 37   @ Iowa L 74-89 5%     0 - 2 +0.2 +2.2 -1.4
  Nov 13, 2024 353   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 68-70 75%     0 - 3 -12.4 -9.2 -3.2
  Nov 20, 2024 22   @ Texas A&M L 54-71 3%     0 - 4 +1.6 -5.3 +5.7
  Nov 30, 2024 114   @ Louisiana Tech W 73-70 19%     1 - 4 +8.8 +2.5 +6.3
  Dec 07, 2024 254   @ Tulsa W 70-66 45%     2 - 4 +1.7 +1.4 +0.6
  Dec 17, 2024 25   @ Mississippi L 61-74 4%     2 - 5 +4.4 -5.4 +10.3
  Dec 20, 2024 152   @ Loyola Marymount L 73-89 24%     2 - 6 -12.3 +4.4 -16.9
  Dec 22, 2024 60   @ USC L 51-82 8%     2 - 7 -19.1 -18.2 +0.8
  Dec 30, 2024 48   @ Nebraska L 43-77 6%     2 - 8 -20.1 -19.3 -2.5
  Jan 04, 2025 310   @ Texas Southern W 67-58 58%     3 - 8 1 - 0 +3.4 -5.4 +8.8
  Jan 06, 2025 330   @ Prairie View W 84-80 65%     4 - 8 2 - 0 -3.5 -3.5 -0.4
  Jan 11, 2025 361   Florida A&M W 91-57 91%     5 - 8 3 - 0 +15.8 +16.4 +1.0
  Jan 13, 2025 247   Bethune-Cookman W 70-66 66%    
  Jan 18, 2025 327   Grambling St. W 70-61 81%    
  Jan 25, 2025 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-74 85%    
  Jan 27, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 74-56 95%    
  Feb 01, 2025 336   Alcorn St. W 73-63 83%    
  Feb 03, 2025 289   Jackson St. W 72-65 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 357   @ Alabama A&M W 75-67 77%    
  Feb 10, 2025 295   @ Alabama St. W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 15, 2025 330   Prairie View W 81-71 83%    
  Feb 17, 2025 310   Texas Southern W 73-65 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 327   @ Grambling St. W 67-64 63%    
  Mar 01, 2025 247   @ Bethune-Cookman L 67-69 44%    
  Mar 03, 2025 361   @ Florida A&M W 72-63 78%    
  Mar 06, 2025 295   Alabama St. W 76-69 74%    
  Mar 08, 2025 357   Alabama A&M W 78-64 90%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.4 9.5 16.2 15.5 9.0 2.3 55.2 1st
2nd 0.1 2.3 7.4 8.4 3.9 0.6 0.0 22.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.7 4.3 1.0 0.1 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.3 0.6 0.0 5.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.4 5.1 9.9 14.7 19.0 20.1 16.1 9.0 2.3 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.3    2.3
17-1 99.9% 9.0    8.9 0.1
16-2 96.0% 15.5    13.7 1.8 0.0
15-3 80.4% 16.2    11.0 4.8 0.4 0.0
14-4 50.4% 9.5    3.8 4.3 1.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.5% 2.4    0.5 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 55.2% 55.2 40.1 12.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.3% 52.2% 52.2% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1
17-1 9.0% 46.1% 46.1% 14.5 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.3 0.1 4.9
16-2 16.1% 41.3% 41.3% 15.1 0.0 0.9 4.0 1.7 9.5
15-3 20.1% 34.7% 34.7% 15.6 0.1 2.4 4.4 13.1
14-4 19.0% 29.1% 29.1% 15.9 0.0 0.8 4.7 13.4
13-5 14.7% 23.8% 23.8% 16.0 0.2 3.4 11.2
12-6 9.9% 17.1% 17.1% 16.0 0.1 1.6 8.2
11-7 5.1% 14.3% 14.3% 16.0 0.7 4.4
10-8 2.4% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 0.2 2.2
9-9 0.9% 13.7% 13.7% 16.0 0.1 0.8
8-10 0.2% 11.9% 11.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 30.9% 30.9% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.9 9.7 17.1 69.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 13.1 0.2 21.5 48.7 28.1 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%