Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.9#300
Expected Predictive Rating-8.5#302
Pace69.7#154
Improvement-4.0#333

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#227
First Shot+1.0#144
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#333
Layup/Dunks-4.1#321
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#117
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#57
Freethrows-0.3#195
Improvement-2.3#299

Defense
Total Defense-5.8#335
First Shot-3.6#293
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#332
Layups/Dunks+0.9#133
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#95
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#285
Freethrows-3.0#344
Improvement-1.8#279
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.5% 10.4% 8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 28.0% 36.2% 13.6%
.500 or above in Conference 83.8% 89.6% 73.5%
Conference Champion 3.6% 5.1% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four8.5% 9.0% 7.7%
First Round5.2% 6.1% 3.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Away) - 63.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 414 - 914 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 109   @ UNLV L 79-93 10%     0 - 1 -7.6 +8.5 -16.0
  Nov 10, 2024 67   @ LSU L 61-74 5%     0 - 2 -2.0 -7.6 +6.0
  Nov 22, 2024 233   Nebraska Omaha W 85-67 35%     1 - 2 +14.1 +6.2 +7.4
  Nov 23, 2024 236   Lamar W 77-75 36%     2 - 2 -2.1 +7.0 -9.1
  Nov 24, 2024 131   @ Akron L 78-97 12%     2 - 3 -14.1 +3.7 -16.9
  Nov 27, 2024 42   @ Cincinnati L 59-77 3%     2 - 4 -3.2 -3.1 -0.1
  Dec 03, 2024 50   @ SMU L 72-101 3%     2 - 5 -15.4 +1.1 -15.3
  Dec 05, 2024 267   @ Southern Miss L 64-81 31%     2 - 6 -19.9 -13.0 -6.0
  Dec 11, 2024 291   Tennessee Martin W 103-93 OT 59%     3 - 6 -0.1 +13.7 -15.0
  Dec 19, 2024 180   Norfolk St. L 54-71 25%     3 - 7 -17.9 -16.7 -2.2
  Dec 20, 2024 319   Delaware St. L 80-83 55%     3 - 8 -12.2 +4.4 -16.7
  Dec 30, 2024 44   @ Missouri L 65-82 3%     3 - 9 -2.6 -3.6 +1.3
  Jan 04, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 84-55 96%     4 - 9 1 - 0 +0.9 +6.1 -2.9
  Jan 06, 2025 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 93-91 89%     5 - 9 2 - 0 -19.1 +4.8 -23.9
  Jan 11, 2025 289   @ Jackson St. L 70-77 36%     5 - 10 2 - 1 -11.2 -1.3 -9.8
  Jan 13, 2025 336   @ Alcorn St. L 65-67 50%     5 - 11 2 - 2 -9.9 -5.2 -4.9
  Jan 18, 2025 357   @ Alabama A&M W 78-74 64%    
  Jan 25, 2025 328   Prairie View W 82-77 68%    
  Jan 27, 2025 299   Texas Southern W 76-73 61%    
  Feb 01, 2025 260   @ Bethune-Cookman L 70-75 31%    
  Feb 03, 2025 359   @ Florida A&M W 76-72 66%    
  Feb 08, 2025 327   Grambling St. W 73-68 69%    
  Feb 10, 2025 213   Southern L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 86-79 75%    
  Feb 17, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 77-63 90%    
  Feb 22, 2025 359   Florida A&M W 79-69 82%    
  Feb 24, 2025 260   Bethune-Cookman W 73-72 51%    
  Mar 01, 2025 357   Alabama A&M W 81-71 82%    
  Mar 06, 2025 213   @ Southern L 68-76 22%    
  Mar 08, 2025 327   @ Grambling St. L 70-71 47%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.0 0.2 3.6 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 4.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 9.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.8 7.7 4.3 0.7 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 7.7 5.6 0.7 16.5 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 8.8 6.3 0.9 18.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 6.1 6.1 0.9 0.0 14.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.9 5.1 1.0 0.1 10.7 7th
8th 0.2 1.9 3.5 1.0 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.7 0.1 3.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.4 9.4 14.6 18.4 17.9 16.3 10.3 4.7 1.4 0.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 98.8% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-3 67.4% 1.0    0.6 0.4 0.0
14-4 33.9% 1.6    0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1
13-5 8.2% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.2% 24.4% 24.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 1.4% 20.4% 20.4% 15.6 0.1 0.2 1.1
14-4 4.7% 22.9% 22.9% 16.0 0.0 1.0 3.6
13-5 10.3% 17.9% 17.9% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 8.4
12-6 16.3% 11.4% 11.4% 16.0 0.0 1.8 14.5
11-7 17.9% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 1.8 16.0
10-8 18.4% 8.6% 8.6% 16.0 1.6 16.9
9-9 14.6% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.6 14.0
8-10 9.4% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.3 9.1
7-11 4.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 4.3
6-12 1.8% 1.8
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.3 90.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 14.5 50.0 50.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%