South Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#258
Expected Predictive Rating-2.6#211
Pace81.5#2
Improvement-1.5#261

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#129
First Shot-0.8#200
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#47
Layup/Dunks+1.2#138
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#182
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#335
Freethrows+3.7#21
Improvement-4.0#343

Defense
Total Defense-7.0#347
First Shot-3.9#298
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#351
Layups/Dunks-2.2#268
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#89
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#282
Freethrows-0.4#212
Improvement+2.5#56
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 2.2% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 45.1% 51.1% 20.7%
.500 or above in Conference 74.0% 74.7% 71.0%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.8%
First Round1.9% 2.0% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Home) - 80.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 42 - 10
Quad 412 - 514 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 224   Southern W 93-79 52%     1 - 0 +8.1 +9.7 -3.1
  Nov 06, 2024 339   Texas A&M - Commerce W 85-76 80%    
  Nov 12, 2024 62   @ Iowa L 77-96 7%     1 - 1 -7.4 +3.0 -9.6
  Nov 20, 2024 322   @ Western Michigan W 80-76 58%     2 - 1 -3.4 +0.7 -4.3
  Nov 22, 2024 333   @ Southern Indiana L 83-92 60%     2 - 2 -17.2 +0.6 -17.3
  Nov 27, 2024 42   @ Nebraska L 79-96 4%     2 - 3 -2.8 +7.5 -9.0
  Dec 04, 2024 231   Idaho St. W 94-80 53%     3 - 3 +7.7 +21.7 -13.4
  Dec 07, 2024 251   @ Northern Arizona L 82-95 39%     3 - 4 -15.6 +0.8 -15.4
  Dec 10, 2024 167   Wyoming W 82-81 39%     4 - 4 -1.5 +3.2 -4.8
  Dec 14, 2024 357   Western Illinois W 89-66 85%     5 - 4 +6.6 +10.5 -3.2
  Dec 19, 2024 300   @ Utah Tech L 87-92 50%     5 - 5 -10.5 +7.9 -18.3
  Dec 21, 2024 61   @ Santa Clara L 81-98 6%     5 - 6 -5.1 +5.2 -8.6
  Jan 02, 2025 234   @ UMKC L 54-68 35%     5 - 7 0 - 1 -15.6 -13.4 -3.5
  Jan 04, 2025 331   Denver W 91-84 76%     6 - 7 1 - 1 -6.0 +6.1 -12.5
  Jan 11, 2025 135   @ St. Thomas L 104-119 18%     6 - 8 1 - 2 -10.9 +20.0 -29.5
  Jan 16, 2025 316   Oral Roberts W 92-82 72%     7 - 8 2 - 2 -1.5 +1.2 -3.7
  Jan 18, 2025 144   North Dakota St. L 77-103 34%     7 - 9 2 - 3 -27.3 -4.0 -22.4
  Jan 23, 2025 268   @ North Dakota W 102-93 43%     8 - 9 3 - 3 +5.4 +9.7 -5.5
  Jan 25, 2025 109   @ South Dakota St. L 71-90 14%     8 - 10 3 - 4 -12.8 -3.6 -8.1
  Jan 29, 2025 199   Nebraska Omaha W 91-87 46%     9 - 10 4 - 4 -0.5 +7.5 -8.3
  Feb 06, 2025 331   @ Denver W 86-79 60%     10 - 10 5 - 4 -1.1 +1.4 -3.1
  Feb 08, 2025 316   @ Oral Roberts W 75-74 54%     11 - 10 6 - 4 -5.6 -10.5 +4.9
  Feb 13, 2025 234   UMKC W 79-78 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 109   South Dakota St. L 83-90 28%    
  Feb 19, 2025 135   St. Thomas L 86-91 36%    
  Feb 22, 2025 199   @ Nebraska Omaha L 82-88 27%    
  Feb 26, 2025 144   @ North Dakota St. L 81-90 18%    
  Mar 01, 2025 268   North Dakota W 91-88 63%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 8 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 0.2 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 1.7 4.2 3rd
4th 0.1 3.1 12.4 9.1 0.5 25.2 4th
5th 3.3 19.7 28.9 13.7 0.7 66.3 5th
6th 2.2 0.6 2.8 6th
7th 0.2 0.2 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 5.7 20.4 32.0 26.4 12.2 3.0 0.4 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 47.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 2.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.4% 17.5% 17.5% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-5 3.0% 6.6% 6.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.8
10-6 12.2% 3.5% 3.5% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 11.8
9-7 26.4% 2.8% 2.8% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 25.6
8-8 32.0% 1.5% 1.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 31.5
7-9 20.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 20.2
6-10 5.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.6
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%