USC
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#106
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#144
Pace68.8#187
Improvement-1.9#301

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#114
First Shot+4.5#62
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#307
Layup/Dunks+3.8#60
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#41
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#280
Freethrows+1.0#121
Improvement-2.6#346

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#113
First Shot+0.7#150
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#100
Layups/Dunks+0.2#162
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#211
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#194
Freethrows+0.8#132
Improvement+0.8#110
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.8% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.3% 2.8% 0.8%
Average Seed 9.8 9.7 9.8
.500 or above 10.7% 20.3% 7.2%
.500 or above in Conference 3.5% 7.7% 1.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 38.4% 21.3% 44.7%
First Four0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
First Round1.1% 2.3% 0.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington (Away) - 26.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 12
Quad 22 - 54 - 17
Quad 33 - 26 - 19
Quad 46 - 012 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 200   Chattanooga W 77-51 80%     1 - 0 +21.2 +4.6 +18.1
  Nov 07, 2024 252   Idaho St. W 75-69 87%     2 - 0 -1.9 +2.6 -4.2
  Nov 13, 2024 161   Texas Arlington W 98-95 76%     3 - 0 -0.3 +9.5 -10.1
  Nov 17, 2024 109   California L 66-71 63%     3 - 1 -4.2 -4.2 -0.3
  Nov 20, 2024 194   San Jose St. W 82-68 79%     4 - 1 +9.6 +13.4 -2.5
  Nov 24, 2024 226   Grambling St. W 80-69 84%     5 - 1 +4.4 +9.2 -4.3
  Nov 28, 2024 42   St. Mary's L 36-71 25%     5 - 2 -23.7 -26.0 -2.4
  Nov 29, 2024 65   New Mexico L 73-83 31%     5 - 3 -0.9 +2.1 -2.8
  Dec 04, 2024 22   Oregon L 60-68 24%     5 - 4 0 - 1 +3.3 -6.1 +9.2
  Dec 07, 2024 75   @ Washington L 70-76 27%    
  Dec 15, 2024 122   Montana St. W 74-69 68%    
  Dec 18, 2024 155   Cal St. Northridge W 79-72 74%    
  Dec 22, 2024 234   Southern W 76-65 84%    
  Jan 04, 2025 16   Michigan L 68-76 23%    
  Jan 08, 2025 39   @ Indiana L 70-81 16%    
  Jan 11, 2025 14   @ Illinois L 69-83 10%    
  Jan 14, 2025 50   Iowa L 77-80 38%    
  Jan 18, 2025 35   Wisconsin L 71-76 31%    
  Jan 22, 2025 44   @ Nebraska L 68-78 19%    
  Jan 27, 2025 18   UCLA L 64-72 25%    
  Feb 01, 2025 27   Michigan St. L 68-74 29%    
  Feb 04, 2025 66   @ Northwestern L 63-71 24%    
  Feb 07, 2025 21   @ Purdue L 66-79 11%    
  Feb 11, 2025 31   Penn St. L 73-79 30%    
  Feb 15, 2025 112   Minnesota W 68-64 62%    
  Feb 20, 2025 19   @ Maryland L 67-81 11%    
  Feb 23, 2025 58   @ Rutgers L 71-79 23%    
  Feb 26, 2025 29   Ohio St. L 70-76 29%    
  Mar 01, 2025 22   @ Oregon L 66-79 12%    
  Mar 05, 2025 75   Washington L 72-73 49%    
  Mar 08, 2025 18   @ UCLA L 61-75 11%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.1 2.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.0 0.7 0.0 3.3 12th
13th 0.5 2.2 1.9 0.2 4.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.7 0.9 0.0 7.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.9 2.5 0.2 10.6 15th
16th 0.1 0.9 3.8 6.6 4.0 0.7 0.0 16.0 16th
17th 0.4 2.4 6.7 9.0 5.2 1.1 0.1 24.7 17th
18th 1.3 4.9 7.9 7.2 3.7 0.9 0.1 25.9 18th
Total 1.3 5.3 10.3 14.7 17.0 15.5 12.9 9.8 6.0 3.6 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 60.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 18.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 93.8% 6.3% 87.5% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.3%
13-7 0.2% 83.3% 2.6% 80.8% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 82.9%
12-8 0.4% 61.8% 2.5% 59.3% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 60.8%
11-9 0.9% 40.7% 1.1% 39.6% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 40.0%
10-10 1.9% 20.2% 0.2% 20.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.5 20.0%
9-11 3.6% 3.9% 0.1% 3.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.5 3.8%
8-12 6.0% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 6.0 0.2%
7-13 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 9.8
6-14 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 12.9
5-15 15.5% 15.5
4-16 17.0% 17.0
3-17 14.7% 14.7
2-18 10.3% 10.3
1-19 5.3% 5.3
0-20 1.3% 1.3
Total 100% 1.4% 0.0% 1.3% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 98.6 1.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%