UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#126
Expected Predictive Rating+0.8#161
Pace66.7#244
Improvement-1.7#289

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#92
First Shot+2.4#105
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#132
Layup/Dunks-3.2#281
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#142
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#29
Freethrows-1.0#245
Improvement-0.9#249

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#207
First Shot+2.0#117
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#346
Layups/Dunks+0.9#141
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#146
Freethrows+1.5#93
Improvement-0.8#255
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 11.4% 6.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 12.9
.500 or above 90.4% 95.2% 84.8%
.500 or above in Conference 77.4% 86.2% 67.2%
Conference Champion 5.5% 8.1% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.6% 2.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round8.9% 11.4% 6.0%
Second Round1.3% 1.7% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Away) - 53.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 57 - 9
Quad 412 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 309   @ Portland W 94-53 74%     1 - 0 +36.4 +16.8 +18.4
  Nov 13, 2024 255   Fresno St. W 91-86 83%     2 - 0 -3.2 +4.5 -8.4
  Nov 17, 2024 194   @ San Jose St. W 64-59 52%     3 - 0 +6.6 +4.3 +3.3
  Nov 20, 2024 158   UTEP L 76-79 68%     3 - 1 -5.8 +7.5 -13.4
  Nov 26, 2024 239   Eastern Washington W 67-51 81%     4 - 1 +8.8 -5.5 +16.2
  Nov 29, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 81-48 98%     5 - 1 +8.8 +15.3 +0.2
  Dec 05, 2024 102   UC San Diego L 76-84 52%     5 - 2 0 - 1 -6.4 +5.8 -12.5
  Dec 07, 2024 204   @ UC Davis W 73-72 54%    
  Dec 14, 2024 310   Green Bay W 84-71 89%    
  Dec 18, 2024 181   @ Loyola Marymount W 72-71 50%    
  Dec 22, 2024 165   @ Missouri St. L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 03, 2025 162   @ Hawaii L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 09, 2025 244   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-65 81%    
  Jan 11, 2025 228   @ Cal Poly W 81-78 59%    
  Jan 16, 2025 175   UC Riverside W 75-69 71%    
  Jan 18, 2025 204   UC Davis W 76-69 74%    
  Jan 23, 2025 102   @ UC San Diego L 68-74 31%    
  Jan 25, 2025 307   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 72-65 72%    
  Jan 30, 2025 155   Cal St. Northridge W 79-74 66%    
  Feb 01, 2025 304   Long Beach St. W 75-63 87%    
  Feb 06, 2025 244   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 71-68 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 162   Hawaii W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 13, 2025 57   @ UC Irvine L 66-76 17%    
  Feb 15, 2025 175   @ UC Riverside L 71-72 50%    
  Feb 20, 2025 307   Cal St. Fullerton W 75-62 87%    
  Feb 22, 2025 304   @ Long Beach St. W 72-66 72%    
  Feb 27, 2025 228   Cal Poly W 84-75 78%    
  Mar 01, 2025 155   @ Cal St. Northridge L 76-77 46%    
  Mar 08, 2025 57   UC Irvine L 69-73 35%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 5.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.5 4.8 4.6 2.6 0.5 0.0 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.2 7.0 4.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 21.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 5.6 6.2 2.8 0.6 0.0 17.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.6 5.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 13.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.8 3.9 1.3 0.1 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.7 6.1 9.0 11.3 13.8 13.9 12.7 10.8 7.7 4.6 1.9 0.6 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 95.0% 0.6    0.5 0.1
17-3 71.1% 1.4    0.8 0.5 0.0
16-4 37.2% 1.7    0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 15.8% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0
14-6 4.4% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.5% 5.5 2.6 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 58.7% 50.0% 8.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.4%
18-2 0.6% 39.9% 39.9% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
17-3 1.9% 37.8% 37.8% 11.9 0.1 0.5 0.1 1.2
16-4 4.6% 28.8% 28.8% 12.3 0.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 3.3
15-5 7.7% 20.9% 20.9% 12.6 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.1 6.1
14-6 10.8% 14.9% 14.9% 12.8 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 9.1
13-7 12.7% 10.2% 10.2% 13.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 11.4
12-8 13.9% 6.5% 6.5% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 13.0
11-9 13.8% 4.1% 4.1% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 13.2
10-10 11.3% 2.7% 2.7% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.0
9-11 9.0% 1.9% 1.9% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.8
8-12 6.1% 0.7% 0.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 6.1
7-13 3.7% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.7
6-14 2.1% 2.1
5-15 1.1% 1.1
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.5 3.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 91.1 0.0%