UTEP
Conference USA
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#158
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#134
Pace73.0#76
Improvement+4.3#8

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#243
First Shot-2.1#234
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#216
Layup/Dunks-3.3#287
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#299
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#141
Freethrows+2.0#73
Improvement+1.8#52

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#90
First Shot+1.2#132
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#62
Layups/Dunks+2.7#90
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#148
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#111
Freethrows-4.0#346
Improvement+2.5#23
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 6.9% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.9 13.5
.500 or above 54.7% 66.3% 41.4%
.500 or above in Conference 48.7% 54.8% 41.8%
Conference Champion 5.5% 7.1% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 10.3% 8.1% 12.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round5.6% 6.9% 4.2%
Second Round0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seattle (Home) - 53.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 5
Quad 36 - 68 - 12
Quad 47 - 214 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 184   @ Utah Valley L 60-89 43%     0 - 1 -27.1 -16.1 -8.3
  Nov 20, 2024 126   @ UC Santa Barbara W 79-76 32%     1 - 1 +8.1 +9.6 -1.4
  Nov 25, 2024 194   San Jose St. L 65-71 56%     1 - 2 -7.4 -8.8 +1.2
  Nov 26, 2024 304   Long Beach St. W 70-44 77%     2 - 2 +18.6 -3.3 +22.9
  Nov 27, 2024 160   UNC Greensboro W 64-58 51%     3 - 2 +6.1 +1.9 +5.1
  Dec 07, 2024 123   Seattle W 70-69 54%    
  Dec 11, 2024 43   @ Louisville L 66-80 10%    
  Dec 16, 2024 323   Tarleton St. W 74-62 87%    
  Dec 20, 2024 315   Jackson St. W 76-64 86%    
  Jan 02, 2025 103   Louisiana Tech L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 04, 2025 139   Sam Houston St. W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 11, 2025 218   New Mexico St. W 72-66 72%    
  Jan 16, 2025 70   @ Liberty L 60-71 17%    
  Jan 18, 2025 253   @ Florida International W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 23, 2025 174   Jacksonville St. W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 25, 2025 146   Kennesaw St. W 78-76 58%    
  Jan 30, 2025 115   @ Western Kentucky L 74-80 29%    
  Feb 01, 2025 128   @ Middle Tennessee L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 08, 2025 218   @ New Mexico St. W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 13, 2025 253   Florida International W 76-68 76%    
  Feb 15, 2025 70   Liberty L 63-68 34%    
  Feb 20, 2025 146   @ Kennesaw St. L 75-79 38%    
  Feb 22, 2025 174   @ Jacksonville St. L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 27, 2025 115   Western Kentucky L 76-77 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 128   Middle Tennessee W 72-70 55%    
  Mar 06, 2025 139   @ Sam Houston St. L 72-76 36%    
  Mar 08, 2025 103   @ Louisiana Tech L 66-73 26%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.1 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 8.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.4 2.5 0.6 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.3 3.0 5.3 2.6 0.4 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.8 2.8 0.3 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.9 3.3 0.4 0.0 12.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.5 3.2 0.4 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.9 3.0 0.4 0.0 11.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 3.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 4.9 7.4 10.1 12.0 12.8 12.8 11.2 9.2 6.7 4.4 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 96.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
15-3 86.8% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
14-4 64.3% 1.7    1.0 0.6 0.1
13-5 33.0% 1.5    0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 9.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.5% 5.5 3.1 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 29.8% 26.3% 3.5% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.8%
16-2 0.5% 31.2% 30.0% 1.2% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.7%
15-3 1.2% 22.5% 22.5% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.9
14-4 2.6% 22.8% 22.8% 12.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.0
13-5 4.4% 17.6% 17.6% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 3.6
12-6 6.7% 13.3% 13.3% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.8
11-7 9.2% 8.9% 8.9% 13.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 8.4
10-8 11.2% 6.7% 6.7% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 10.5
9-9 12.8% 5.1% 5.1% 13.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.2
8-10 12.8% 3.4% 3.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 12.3
7-11 12.0% 1.7% 1.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.8
6-12 10.1% 0.8% 0.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 10.1
5-13 7.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.4
4-14 4.9% 4.9
3-15 2.5% 2.5
2-16 1.1% 1.1
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.2 94.3 0.0%