IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.7	#135
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.3	#288
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.7	#117

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.0	#162

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	15.7%	18.1%	10.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	12.6	12.4	13.1

.500 or above	80.2%	86.6%	66.4%
.500 or above in Conference	81.8%	85.7%	73.6%
Conference Champion	18.0%	21.0%	11.7%
Last Place in Conference	1.2%	0.9%	2.0%

First Four	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
First Round	15.7%	18.1%	10.6%
Second Round	2.3%	2.8%	1.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.4%	0.5%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Home) - 68.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 3
Quad 3	5 - 5	6 - 8
Quad 4	12 - 3	19 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2025	159	San Jose St.	W	71-66	68%
Nov 11, 2025	272	@ Sacramento St.	W	69-64	67%
Nov 17, 2025	136	Loyola Marymount	W	70-67	61%
Nov 22, 2025	98	@ Nevada	L	62-68	29%
Nov 30, 2025	306	Lehigh	W	74-64	80%
Dec 04, 2025	264	Long Beach St.	W	71-61	81%
Dec 06, 2025	223	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	72-64	76%
Dec 13, 2025	119	Utah Valley	L	69-70	47%
Dec 17, 2025	314	@ Green Bay	W	76-69	74%
Dec 22, 2025	262	Portland	W	77-67	80%
Jan 01, 2026	337	@ Cal St. Fullerton	W	73-64	79%
Jan 03, 2026	176	@ Cal St. Northridge	L	74-75	50%
Jan 08, 2026	252	UC Davis	W	72-62	79%
Jan 15, 2026	223	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	W	69-67	58%
Jan 17, 2026	134	Hawaii	W	69-66	60%
Jan 22, 2026	256	Cal Poly	W	84-74	80%
Jan 24, 2026	264	@ Long Beach St.	W	68-64	64%
Jan 29, 2026	117	@ UC San Diego	L	66-70	37%
Jan 31, 2026	337	Cal St. Fullerton	W	76-61	90%
Feb 05, 2026	252	@ UC Davis	W	69-65	62%
Feb 07, 2026	93	UC Irvine	L	69-70	48%
Feb 12, 2026	258	@ UC Riverside	W	71-67	63%
Feb 14, 2026	256	@ Cal Poly	W	81-77	63%
Feb 19, 2026	176	Cal St. Northridge	W	78-72	69%
Feb 22, 2026	134	@ Hawaii	L	66-69	40%
Feb 26, 2026	258	UC Riverside	W	74-64	79%
Feb 28, 2026	93	@ UC Irvine	L	66-73	29%
Mar 07, 2026	117	UC San Diego	W	69-67	57%
Projected Record						18 - 10	13 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.7	2.5	4.0	4.7	3.6	1.9	0.6		18.0	1st
2nd												0.0	0.4	1.7	4.6	5.4	4.0	1.6	0.2				18.0	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.0	0.6	2.8	5.4	5.0	2.0	0.4	0.0					16.3	3rd
4th										0.1	0.8	3.1	5.0	3.4	1.1	0.1							13.6	4th
5th									0.1	0.7	3.1	4.2	2.2	0.5	0.0								10.9	5th
6th								0.1	0.7	2.5	3.3	1.4	0.2										8.3	6th
7th							0.1	0.6	2.0	2.4	0.9	0.1	0.0										6.1	7th
8th					0.0	0.1	0.5	1.3	1.6	0.5	0.1												4.1	8th
9th				0.0	0.0	0.4	0.9	0.9	0.3	0.0													2.7	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0														1.5	10th
11th		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0															0.7	11th

Total		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.1	2.0	3.1	4.7	6.3	8.3	9.4	10.6	11.0	11.5	10.0	8.3	6.3	3.9	1.9	0.6			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.6		0.6
19-1	100.0%	1.9		1.9	0.0
18-2	94.1%	3.6		3.2	0.4
17-3	74.6%	4.7		3.4	1.2	0.1
16-4	47.7%	4.0		2.2	1.5	0.3	0.0
15-5	24.4%	2.5		0.8	1.1	0.5	0.0	0.0
14-6	6.3%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-7	0.7%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0					0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	18.0%	18.0		12.2	4.6	1.1	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.6%		67.7%	61.2%	6.5%	8.8				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.2		16.7%
19-1	1.9%		55.6%	54.3%	1.3%	11.0						0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.6	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.8		2.8%
18-2	3.9%		49.6%	49.2%	0.4%	11.8											0.0	0.7	1.0	0.2	0.0			2.0		0.8%
17-3	6.3%		40.7%	40.7%		12.1											0.0	0.4	1.4	0.6	0.1	0.0		3.7
16-4	8.3%		31.7%	31.6%	0.0%	12.5												0.2	1.2	0.9	0.3	0.0		5.7		0.1%
15-5	10.0%		26.0%	26.0%		12.9												0.1	0.8	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0	7.4
14-6	11.5%		17.2%	17.2%		13.3													0.4	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.0	9.5
13-7	11.0%		11.0%	11.0%		13.7												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0	9.8
12-8	10.6%		6.4%	6.4%		14.0													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	10.0
11-9	9.4%		3.7%	3.7%		14.5													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	9.1
10-10	8.3%		2.3%	2.3%		16.1														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	8.1
9-11	6.3%		1.4%	1.4%		17.1														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6.2
8-12	4.7%		0.6%	0.6%		17.9															0.0	0.0	0.0	4.6
7-13	3.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.1
6-14	2.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	1.9
5-15	1.1%																							1.1
4-16	0.6%																							0.6
3-17	0.3%																							0.3
2-18	0.1%																							0.1
1-19	0.0%																							0.0
0-20

Total	100%		15.7%	15.6%	0.1%	12.6				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	2.1	5.3	4.4	2.4	0.9	0.2	84.3		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	6.5			3.4	13.8	24.1	20.7	10.5	6.9	3.4	6.9	10.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	33.5%	10.3										25.1	8.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	39.8%	10.5										19.9	19.9