UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#175
Expected Predictive Rating+5.3#97
Pace67.3#229
Improvement-1.8#294

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#190
First Shot-1.5#220
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#131
Layup/Dunks-1.2#227
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#75
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#167
Freethrows-2.3#299
Improvement-2.8#350

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#174
First Shot+1.1#133
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#271
Layups/Dunks-0.2#170
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#139
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#213
Freethrows+1.3#101
Improvement+1.0#97
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 4.8% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.5
.500 or above 50.8% 55.3% 30.7%
.500 or above in Conference 66.7% 71.4% 45.5%
Conference Champion 3.6% 4.2% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 1.3% 7.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round4.2% 4.7% 1.9%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Home) - 81.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 35 - 58 - 12
Quad 48 - 316 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 22   @ Oregon L 76-91 6%     0 - 1 +2.3 +10.7 -8.2
  Nov 08, 2024 49   @ BYU L 80-86 10%     0 - 2 +7.3 +7.1 +0.6
  Nov 12, 2024 185   @ California Baptist W 70-69 40%     1 - 2 +2.8 +0.7 +2.2
  Nov 19, 2024 84   @ Santa Clara L 54-96 17%     1 - 3 -32.6 -13.1 -20.7
  Nov 22, 2024 99   @ Colorado St. W 77-75 OT 19%     2 - 3 +10.4 +2.9 +7.3
  Nov 24, 2024 352   Alcorn St. W 69-52 91%     3 - 3 +1.3 -8.6 +10.7
  Nov 30, 2024 265   @ Idaho L 68-80 58%     3 - 4 -14.9 -2.0 -14.2
  Dec 05, 2024 155   @ Cal St. Northridge W 68-64 34%     4 - 4 1 - 0 +7.3 -2.6 +9.8
  Dec 07, 2024 307   Cal St. Fullerton W 72-62 82%    
  Dec 18, 2024 122   Montana St. L 70-71 49%    
  Dec 21, 2024 104   @ UNLV L 65-73 22%    
  Dec 29, 2024 133   St. Thomas W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 02, 2025 304   @ Long Beach St. W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 04, 2025 57   @ UC Irvine L 63-76 11%    
  Jan 09, 2025 162   Hawaii W 70-67 59%    
  Jan 16, 2025 126   @ UC Santa Barbara L 69-75 29%    
  Jan 18, 2025 102   UC San Diego L 68-70 42%    
  Jan 23, 2025 57   UC Irvine L 66-73 25%    
  Jan 25, 2025 244   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 30, 2025 204   UC Davis W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 228   Cal Poly W 80-74 70%    
  Feb 06, 2025 102   @ UC San Diego L 65-73 23%    
  Feb 08, 2025 244   Cal St. Bakersfield W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 13, 2025 204   @ UC Davis L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 126   UC Santa Barbara W 72-71 50%    
  Feb 20, 2025 304   Long Beach St. W 73-63 80%    
  Feb 22, 2025 228   @ Cal Poly L 77-78 50%    
  Feb 28, 2025 162   @ Hawaii L 67-70 38%    
  Mar 06, 2025 155   Cal St. Northridge W 76-74 57%    
  Mar 08, 2025 307   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 69-65 63%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.5 3.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.4 4.2 5.4 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 15.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 5.4 5.7 2.6 0.6 0.1 16.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 5.6 5.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 15.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.2 4.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 13.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.9 3.9 1.0 0.1 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.7 0.8 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.6 1.8 0.5 0.1 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.3 6.2 8.9 12.0 13.5 13.7 12.5 10.3 7.6 5.0 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 90.4% 0.3    0.3 0.1
17-3 70.2% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 44.1% 1.1    0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 19.4% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 4.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 30.6% 30.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.4% 31.9% 31.9% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-3 1.1% 25.4% 25.4% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8
16-4 2.5% 21.8% 21.8% 12.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.0
15-5 5.0% 15.3% 15.3% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.2
14-6 7.6% 11.1% 11.1% 13.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 6.7
13-7 10.3% 6.2% 6.2% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 9.7
12-8 12.5% 3.8% 3.8% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 12.0
11-9 13.7% 1.9% 1.9% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.5
10-10 13.5% 1.3% 1.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.3
9-11 12.0% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.9
8-12 8.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 8.8
7-13 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.2
6-14 3.3% 3.3
5-15 1.8% 1.8
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 95.8 0.0%