Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.7#120
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#101
Pace70.0#129
Improvement+4.6#23

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#195
First Shot-2.0#235
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#114
Layup/Dunks+3.6#59
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#181
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#331
Freethrows-0.1#179
Improvement+3.0#46

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#79
First Shot+1.0#144
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#19
Layups/Dunks-1.5#233
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#126
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#101
Freethrows-0.2#197
Improvement+1.6#101
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.6% 26.4% 23.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 80.3% 87.5% 62.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round25.6% 26.4% 23.3%
Second Round1.9% 2.1% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Away) - 71.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 4
Quad 37 - 38 - 7
Quad 412 - 220 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 137   UTEP W 89-60 64%     1 - 0 +28.0 +9.1 +16.2
  Nov 14, 2024 268   @ North Dakota L 71-77 73%     1 - 1 -9.6 -8.8 -0.7
  Nov 22, 2024 158   @ Murray St. W 77-75 49%     2 - 1 +5.0 +8.6 -3.5
  Nov 26, 2024 341   West Georgia W 77-74 91%     3 - 1 -9.1 -3.6 -5.6
  Nov 27, 2024 108   @ Samford L 76-84 36%     3 - 2 -1.6 -1.9 +1.0
  Nov 28, 2024 144   North Dakota St. L 63-83 56%     3 - 3 -18.9 -3.2 -19.2
  Dec 03, 2024 81   @ Stanford L 63-77 25%     3 - 4 -4.4 -9.6 +5.9
  Dec 07, 2024 139   @ James Madison L 61-78 45%     3 - 5 -13.1 -5.8 -8.7
  Dec 11, 2024 268   North Dakota W 80-57 85%     4 - 5 +14.5 +2.8 +13.0
  Dec 14, 2024 121   @ Jacksonville St. L 66-70 41%     4 - 6 +1.0 -3.9 +4.8
  Dec 18, 2024 231   @ Idaho St. W 70-56 65%     5 - 6 +12.7 -5.2 +17.6
  Dec 21, 2024 290   @ Weber St. W 64-62 76%     6 - 6 -2.7 +0.1 -2.4
  Jan 04, 2025 227   Abilene Christian W 64-53 80%     7 - 6 1 - 0 +4.9 -10.7 +15.2
  Jan 09, 2025 88   Grand Canyon W 72-64 45%     8 - 6 2 - 0 +12.1 +3.5 +8.6
  Jan 11, 2025 154   California Baptist W 75-69 67%     9 - 6 3 - 0 +4.2 -0.5 +4.5
  Jan 16, 2025 206   @ Texas Arlington W 85-83 OT 60%     10 - 6 4 - 0 +2.1 +1.9 +0.0
  Jan 18, 2025 300   Utah Tech W 96-80 89%     11 - 6 5 - 0 +5.6 +17.3 -11.8
  Jan 23, 2025 154   @ California Baptist W 74-69 48%     12 - 6 6 - 0 +8.2 +5.3 +3.0
  Jan 25, 2025 149   @ Seattle W 70-66 47%     13 - 6 7 - 0 +7.5 +2.8 +4.9
  Feb 01, 2025 88   @ Grand Canyon L 57-75 27%     13 - 7 7 - 1 -9.0 -10.3 +1.5
  Feb 06, 2025 206   Texas Arlington W 94-73 76%     14 - 7 8 - 1 +16.2 +17.6 -1.2
  Feb 08, 2025 282   Tarleton St. W 81-56 87%     15 - 7 9 - 1 +15.8 +11.6 +5.5
  Feb 15, 2025 278   @ Southern Utah W 75-68 72%    
  Feb 20, 2025 300   @ Utah Tech W 75-67 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 149   Seattle W 71-67 67%    
  Mar 01, 2025 278   Southern Utah W 77-65 87%    
  Mar 06, 2025 227   @ Abilene Christian W 71-67 62%    
  Mar 08, 2025 282   @ Tarleton St. W 69-62 73%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 7.0 23.5 32.4 16.7 80.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.0 8.3 6.1 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.1 1.1 5.0 15.3 29.6 32.4 16.7 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 16.7    16.7
14-2 100.0% 32.4    26.2 6.1
13-3 79.5% 23.5    13.4 10.1
12-4 45.8% 7.0    2.6 4.1 0.3
11-5 15.3% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0
10-6 1.8% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total 80.3% 80.3 59.0 20.8 0.6 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 16.7% 31.8% 31.8% 12.5 0.1 2.5 2.3 0.4 11.4
14-2 32.4% 27.9% 27.9% 13.2 0.0 1.4 4.8 2.8 0.1 23.3
13-3 29.6% 24.3% 24.3% 13.6 0.4 2.8 3.5 0.5 22.4
12-4 15.3% 20.6% 20.6% 13.9 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.6 0.0 12.1
11-5 5.0% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.3
10-6 1.1% 14.7% 14.7% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9
9-7 0.1% 0.1
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 25.6% 25.6% 0.0% 13.3 0.1 4.3 10.8 8.9 1.5 0.0 74.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.3% 100.0% 12.5 2.5 47.5 43.4 6.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.0%