James Madison
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#149
Expected Predictive Rating+0.8#157
Pace67.4#217
Improvement-2.8#308

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#165
First Shot-0.9#203
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#105
Layup/Dunks-0.4#201
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#251
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#79
Freethrows-2.5#318
Improvement-4.2#352

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#150
First Shot-0.7#200
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#80
Layups/Dunks-1.8#251
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#304
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#85
Freethrows+0.3#163
Improvement+1.4#107
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.0% 9.9% 7.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 14.0
.500 or above 88.5% 93.7% 77.0%
.500 or above in Conference 92.6% 96.4% 84.2%
Conference Champion 2.7% 3.8% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round9.0% 9.9% 7.0%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Old Dominion (Away) - 68.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 37 - 67 - 11
Quad 411 - 218 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 160   Ohio W 88-78 62%     1 - 0 +7.8 +10.8 -3.2
  Nov 09, 2024 184   @ Norfolk St. L 69-83 48%     1 - 1 -12.3 -3.0 -9.5
  Nov 16, 2024 175   @ Towson L 63-67 46%     1 - 2 -2.1 -2.3 +0.0
  Nov 21, 2024 142   Illinois-Chicago W 99-81 48%     2 - 2 +19.4 +18.2 -0.2
  Nov 22, 2024 81   UC San Diego L 67-73 28%     2 - 3 +1.2 +6.7 -6.3
  Nov 23, 2024 163   Jacksonville St. W 71-65 53%     3 - 3 +6.2 +4.3 +2.5
  Nov 29, 2024 77   George Mason L 61-66 36%     3 - 4 -0.2 -0.9 +0.3
  Dec 03, 2024 148   East Tennessee St. W 71-61 60%     4 - 4 +8.5 +1.9 +7.3
  Dec 07, 2024 139   Utah Valley W 78-61 58%     5 - 4 +15.9 +13.6 +3.7
  Dec 17, 2024 59   @ Wake Forest L 58-75 15%     5 - 5 -4.8 +3.7 -11.4
  Dec 21, 2024 122   @ South Alabama L 49-77 35%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -23.0 -14.8 -11.1
  Jan 02, 2025 253   Southern Miss W 83-72 80%     6 - 6 1 - 1 +2.9 +10.2 -6.8
  Jan 04, 2025 97   Arkansas St. W 67-62 46%     7 - 6 2 - 1 +7.2 -2.4 +9.7
  Jan 09, 2025 181   @ Marshall L 78-80 47%     7 - 7 2 - 2 -0.3 +5.8 -6.1
  Jan 11, 2025 121   @ Appalachian St. L 66-86 34%     7 - 8 2 - 3 -14.8 -2.9 -11.4
  Jan 16, 2025 181   Marshall W 67-64 67%     8 - 8 3 - 3 -0.5 -7.5 +7.0
  Jan 18, 2025 121   Appalachian St. L 50-58 54%     8 - 9 3 - 4 -8.0 -12.3 +3.1
  Jan 22, 2025 287   @ Old Dominion W 73-67 69%    
  Jan 25, 2025 281   @ Georgia St. W 76-71 68%    
  Jan 30, 2025 293   Coastal Carolina W 74-63 85%    
  Feb 01, 2025 287   Old Dominion W 75-64 85%    
  Feb 05, 2025 117   Troy W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 211   @ Toledo W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 13, 2025 272   @ Georgia Southern W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 15, 2025 293   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 20, 2025 281   Georgia St. W 79-68 85%    
  Feb 22, 2025 272   Georgia Southern W 80-70 83%    
  Feb 25, 2025 346   @ Louisiana Monroe W 75-65 82%    
  Feb 28, 2025 167   @ Texas St. L 72-73 44%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 1.4 2.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 5.4 1.9 8.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 7.4 5.0 0.6 14.1 3rd
4th 0.7 7.0 9.7 1.7 19.1 4th
5th 0.4 5.3 10.7 3.2 0.1 19.6 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 8.1 4.0 0.2 15.0 6th
7th 0.8 5.2 4.2 0.5 10.7 7th
8th 0.2 1.8 2.9 0.3 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.4 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 4.7 11.4 18.6 23.3 22.1 13.3 3.9 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 35.7% 1.4    0.3 0.7 0.3 0.1
13-5 8.9% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 3.9% 22.1% 22.1% 12.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 3.0
13-5 13.3% 16.4% 16.4% 13.3 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 11.2
12-6 22.1% 11.4% 11.4% 13.6 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 19.6
11-7 23.3% 7.1% 7.1% 14.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 21.7
10-8 18.6% 5.9% 5.9% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 17.5
9-9 11.4% 4.6% 4.6% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 10.9
8-10 4.7% 2.6% 2.6% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.6
7-11 1.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.9
6-12 0.7% 0.7
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 13.7 0.1 0.9 2.9 3.7 1.4 0.1 91.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 12.1 13.7 66.7 19.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%