California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#154
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#182
Pace65.0#266
Improvement+1.1#139

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#170
First Shot+0.2#163
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#189
Layup/Dunks+5.3#26
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#263
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#307
Freethrows+0.5#152
Improvement-3.4#330

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#156
First Shot+1.4#121
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#270
Layups/Dunks-1.6#240
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#233
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#151
Freethrows+2.4#38
Improvement+4.6#11
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.1% 10.7% 7.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 86.1% 94.9% 77.2%
.500 or above in Conference 91.4% 97.9% 84.9%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round9.1% 10.7% 7.4%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Away) - 50.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 34 - 44 - 11
Quad 413 - 417 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 287   Incarnate Word W 83-78 83%     1 - 0 -4.5 +6.6 -10.9
  Nov 09, 2024 163   Kennesaw St. W 88-84 61%     2 - 0 +1.9 +10.0 -8.4
  Nov 12, 2024 168   UC Riverside L 69-70 63%     2 - 1 -3.7 -1.9 -1.8
  Nov 15, 2024 319   LIU Brooklyn W 90-77 88%     3 - 1 +1.1 +19.2 -17.6
  Nov 20, 2024 164   Northern Colorado L 68-79 61%     3 - 2 -13.2 -11.0 -1.8
  Nov 23, 2024 254   Eastern Washington W 79-68 79%     4 - 2 +3.3 +6.7 -2.9
  Nov 26, 2024 39   SMU L 77-79 14%     4 - 3 +10.3 +15.7 -5.6
  Nov 27, 2024 259   Fresno St. W 86-81 2OT 73%     5 - 3 -0.5 -4.7 +3.3
  Dec 01, 2024 68   @ Central Florida L 59-74 18%     5 - 4 -4.6 -10.2 +5.6
  Dec 11, 2024 57   @ San Diego St. L 75-81 14%     5 - 5 +6.2 +22.5 -17.1
  Dec 16, 2024 125   @ Middle Tennessee L 64-75 35%     5 - 6 -6.4 -6.6 +0.3
  Dec 21, 2024 259   @ Fresno St. W 86-69 64%     6 - 6 +13.9 +16.3 -1.6
  Dec 28, 2024 271   Jackson St. W 79-73 81%     7 - 6 -2.6 -4.1 +0.9
  Dec 30, 2024 76   UC Irvine L 63-71 34%     7 - 7 -3.1 -1.3 -2.2
  Jan 04, 2025 149   Seattle W 61-59 58%     8 - 7 1 - 0 +0.5 -6.9 +7.6
  Jan 11, 2025 120   @ Utah Valley L 69-75 33%     8 - 8 1 - 1 -0.8 -0.8 +0.1
  Jan 16, 2025 282   @ Tarleton St. L 57-67 69%     8 - 9 1 - 2 -14.3 -3.5 -12.7
  Jan 18, 2025 227   @ Abilene Christian W 60-54 57%     9 - 9 2 - 2 +4.9 -6.9 +12.1
  Jan 23, 2025 120   Utah Valley L 69-74 52%     9 - 10 2 - 3 -4.8 +0.8 -5.7
  Jan 25, 2025 278   @ Southern Utah W 76-60 67%     10 - 10 3 - 3 +12.1 +8.9 +4.4
  Jan 30, 2025 227   Abilene Christian W 83-60 74%     11 - 10 4 - 3 +16.9 +15.9 +2.6
  Feb 06, 2025 278   Southern Utah L 57-60 82%     11 - 11 4 - 4 -11.9 -13.9 +1.7
  Feb 08, 2025 88   Grand Canyon W 85-71 37%     12 - 11 5 - 4 +18.1 +7.9 +8.8
  Feb 13, 2025 206   @ Texas Arlington W 73-72 50%    
  Feb 15, 2025 300   Utah Tech W 76-65 87%    
  Feb 22, 2025 88   @ Grand Canyon L 69-77 20%    
  Feb 27, 2025 149   @ Seattle L 67-70 38%    
  Mar 01, 2025 300   @ Utah Tech W 73-67 70%    
  Mar 06, 2025 282   Tarleton St. W 70-60 84%    
  Mar 08, 2025 206   Texas Arlington W 75-70 71%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 9 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 3.5 1.3 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.1 18.4 23.9 8.3 0.3 55.2 3rd
4th 1.6 12.1 12.0 2.9 0.0 28.5 4th
5th 0.2 4.0 2.6 0.2 7.0 5th
6th 0.8 1.2 0.1 2.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.1 1.5 7.0 18.8 30.6 28.1 12.0 1.9 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 15.7% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1
11-5 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 1.9% 19.9% 19.9% 12.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.5
11-5 12.0% 15.0% 15.0% 13.8 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 10.2
10-6 28.1% 11.0% 11.0% 14.3 0.3 1.6 1.1 0.0 25.0
9-7 30.6% 8.2% 8.2% 14.7 0.0 0.9 1.5 0.2 28.1
8-8 18.8% 5.7% 5.7% 15.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 17.7
7-9 7.0% 2.7% 2.7% 15.3 0.1 0.1 6.8
6-10 1.5% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.1 1.5
5-11 0.1% 0.0 0.1
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 14.4 0.1 1.1 3.7 3.7 0.4 90.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.9 18.4 71.1 10.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%