Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#231
Expected Predictive Rating-5.0#247
Pace63.9#299
Improvement-1.4#255

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#215
First Shot-7.3#348
After Offensive Rebound+5.9#4
Layup/Dunks-4.5#332
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#157
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#312
Freethrows+1.3#98
Improvement+2.5#63

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#236
First Shot+0.3#175
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#343
Layups/Dunks+3.2#68
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#273
Freethrows-1.5#283
Improvement-4.0#343
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.0% 11.5% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 20.9% 38.5% 12.8%
.500 or above in Conference 78.3% 93.5% 71.4%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four3.4% 2.7% 3.7%
First Round7.6% 10.4% 6.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana (Away) - 31.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 411 - 612 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 63   @ Arizona St. L 48-55 9%     0 - 1 +4.2 -15.5 +19.3
  Nov 07, 2024 52   @ USC L 69-75 7%     0 - 2 +7.2 +4.7 +2.2
  Nov 16, 2024 312   @ San Diego W 78-66 59%     1 - 2 +5.7 -3.2 +7.9
  Nov 18, 2024 324   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 61-62 64%     1 - 3 -8.6 -6.1 -2.6
  Nov 20, 2024 26   @ UCLA L 70-84 3%     1 - 4 +3.6 +15.3 -13.4
  Dec 04, 2024 258   @ South Dakota L 80-94 47%     1 - 5 -17.0 +4.9 -22.5
  Dec 07, 2024 315   Oral Roberts W 71-55 77%     2 - 5 +4.5 -6.5 +11.8
  Dec 18, 2024 122   Utah Valley L 56-70 35%     2 - 6 -13.8 -15.5 +2.0
  Jan 02, 2025 251   @ Northern Arizona W 72-67 45%     3 - 6 1 - 0 +2.4 +0.7 +1.9
  Jan 04, 2025 165   @ Northern Colorado L 92-93 OT 27%     3 - 7 1 - 1 +1.7 +9.3 -7.5
  Jan 11, 2025 291   Weber St. L 69-77 71%     3 - 8 1 - 2 -17.6 -5.0 -13.1
  Jan 16, 2025 192   Montana St. W 70-67 52%     4 - 8 2 - 2 -1.2 +7.5 -8.2
  Jan 18, 2025 189   Montana W 86-61 51%     5 - 8 3 - 2 +20.9 +14.1 +8.5
  Jan 23, 2025 335   @ Sacramento St. L 71-75 67%     5 - 9 3 - 3 -12.4 -0.7 -12.0
  Jan 25, 2025 213   @ Portland St. L 59-76 37%     5 - 10 3 - 4 -17.5 -11.1 -6.7
  Jan 30, 2025 253   Eastern Washington W 78-70 65%     6 - 10 4 - 4 +0.3 +2.5 -2.1
  Feb 01, 2025 263   Idaho W 87-71 67%     7 - 10 5 - 4 +7.8 +18.8 -8.8
  Feb 03, 2025 165   Northern Colorado L 72-86 44%     7 - 11 5 - 5 -16.2 -1.9 -14.8
  Feb 08, 2025 291   @ Weber St. W 72-67 53%     8 - 11 6 - 5 +0.3 +0.4 +0.2
  Feb 13, 2025 189   @ Montana L 70-75 31%    
  Feb 15, 2025 192   @ Montana St. L 67-71 32%    
  Feb 20, 2025 213   Portland St. W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 335   Sacramento St. W 71-61 83%    
  Feb 27, 2025 263   @ Idaho L 72-73 46%    
  Mar 01, 2025 253   @ Eastern Washington L 70-71 45%    
  Mar 03, 2025 251   Northern Arizona W 73-69 65%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.6 3.2 2nd
3rd 2.0 13.8 15.4 4.6 0.3 36.0 3rd
4th 0.5 11.2 12.8 1.6 26.0 4th
5th 0.0 4.1 10.2 0.8 15.2 5th
6th 0.4 7.6 2.1 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 2.3 3.5 0.1 5.9 7th
8th 0.6 2.3 0.2 3.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.7 5.1 15.9 25.5 27.5 17.7 6.6 1.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 17.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
12-6 2.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.0% 19.0% 19.0% 13.5 0.1 0.1 0.8
12-6 6.6% 14.9% 14.9% 14.9 0.2 0.7 0.1 5.6
11-7 17.7% 11.6% 11.6% 15.3 0.0 1.4 0.6 15.7
10-8 27.5% 11.5% 11.5% 15.8 0.6 2.6 24.3
9-9 25.5% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 1.9 23.6
8-10 15.9% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.6 15.3
7-11 5.1% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 5.0
6-12 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 15.6 0.1 0.3 2.7 5.9 91.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 0.4%