Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.8 #109
Expected Predictive Rating +3.9 #103
Pace 72.3 #87
Improvement -4.9 #349

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #141 B- B F+ C- A-
Defense #94 C+ C B C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 50% #3 1.24 #92 +8.9 #4
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #313 0.69 #284 -2.9 #319
Three Pointers 36% #291 1.00 #211 -2.9 #284
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #91 +3.0 #90
Freethrows 0.30 #201 68% #321 0.20 #241
Second Chance 35.2% #57 1.15 #59 0.40 #44
Turnovers 19.9% #348
Total Offense +0.9 #141

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #119 1.09 #88 +0.1 #174
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #122 0.79 #236 -0.9 #252
Three Pointers 37% #286 0.98 #122 +2.7 #81
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #125 +1.9 #124
Freethrows 0.32 #234 75% #326 0.24 #272
Second Chance 29.9% #151 1.07 #219 0.32 #181
Turnovers 19.4% #41
Total Defense +2.9 #94

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.4% #15 0.0% #161
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.4% #139 -3.7% #112
Possession Length 16.5 #99 17.0 #126
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #82 0.15 #121
Improvement -2.3 #309 -2.6 #319

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.7% 44.4% 37.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.1
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.5% 99.7% 96.7%
Conference Champion 56.2% 65.4% 42.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round41.7% 44.4% 37.7%
Second Round3.5% 4.0% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Away) - 59.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 310 - 410 - 7
Quad 410 - 220 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 64 @Boise St. L 77 - 101 22% -12  0 - 1 -12 +6 C+ A F -16 F+ F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 153 @Fresno St. L 74 - 75 51% +4  0 - 2 +3 +5 A- B- D -3 F B- A+
 Wed, Nov 19 120 UC Irvine W 79 - 72 65% +6  1 - 2 +7 +10 A B+ B- -3 B+ D+ C-
 Tue, Nov 25 170 South Dakota St. W 75 - 52 68% +10  2 - 2 +22 +1 C A+ F +21 A+ B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 243 Samford W 89 - 45 79% +23  3 - 2 +40 +8 B+ B F +30 A+ B A+
 Wed, Dec 3 45 @San Diego St. L 66 - 77 16% -6  3 - 3 +3 +2 B- B F +2 B D B
 Sat, Dec 6 129 @Bowling Green W 82 - 71 46% +10  4 - 3 +16 +10 A+ C+ F +5 A- D- B
 Wed, Dec 10 225 Idaho St. W 73 - 69 84% -1  5 - 3 -3 -3 C B- F +1 C+ A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 145 UC Santa Barbara W 68 - 53 61% +12  6 - 3 +16 -6 D- C- F +22 A+ C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 216 Weber St. W 90 - 74 83% +9  7 - 3 +10 +19 A+ A+ F+ -8 B F+ D
 Mon, Dec 29 139 California Baptist W 73 - 66 70% +0  8 - 3 1 - 0 +5 +0 A F A- +5 F A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 1 186 @Tarleton St. W 91 - 85 61% +2  9 - 3 2 - 0 +7 +12 B- C C- -5 B C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 255 @Abilene Christian L 68 - 85 72% -5  9 - 4 2 - 1 -19 -3 C B F -16 F B- F
 Thu, Jan 8 282 Southern Utah W 89 - 72 90% +10  10 - 4 3 - 1 +7 +9 B+ B+ F -2 C- C- C
 Sat, Jan 10 223 Utah Tech W 92 - 76 84% +7  11 - 4 4 - 1 +9 +8 C+ A+ D- +0 C+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 158 Texas Arlington W 86 - 74 74% +14  12 - 4 5 - 1 +9 +16 B A+ B- -7 B F B-
 Wed, Jan 21 282 @Southern Utah L 70 - 84 77% -4  12 - 5 5 - 2 -18 -5 F C+ C- -13 F F A
 Sat, Jan 24 139 @California Baptist L 71 - 78 OT 48% -0  12 - 6 5 - 3 -3 -4 D- D+ F+ +2 D A- A
 Thu, Jan 29 186 @Tarleton St. W 80 - 77 60%
 Thu, Feb 5 255 Abilene Christian W 78 - 66 87%
 Sat, Feb 7 158 Texas Arlington W 73 - 66 73%
 Thu, Feb 12 223 @Utah Tech W 77 - 72 67%
 Thu, Feb 19 139 California Baptist W 73 - 67 69%
 Sat, Feb 21 158 @Texas Arlington W 70 - 69 53%
 Thu, Feb 26 186 Tarleton St. W 83 - 74 79%
 Sat, Feb 28 255 Abilene Christian W 78 - 66 87%
 Thu, Mar 5 282 @Southern Utah W 81 - 73 77%
 Sat, Mar 7 223 @Utah Tech W 77 - 72 67%
Totals 19 - 9 12 - 6 +4 +1 B- B F+ +3 C+ C B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.8 12.2 20.1 15.6 5.4 56.2 1st
2nd 0.2 3.0 9.5 10.8 3.7 0.2 27.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 5.3 4.3 0.9 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.7 9.2 16.7 23.9 23.8 15.8 5.4 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 5.4    5.4
14-4 98.7% 15.6    14.1 1.5
13-5 84.4% 20.1    13.5 6.3 0.3
12-6 51.1% 12.2    5.0 5.9 1.3 0.0
11-7 16.7% 2.8    0.5 1.3 0.8 0.1
10-8 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 56.2% 56.2 38.4 15.1 2.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 5.4% 58.4% 58.4% 11.9 0.0 0.7 2.2 0.3 2.2
14-4 15.8% 53.8% 53.8% 12.5 0.1 4.2 3.8 0.3 7.3
13-5 23.8% 46.6% 46.6% 12.9 0.0 3.0 6.7 1.4 0.0 12.7
12-6 23.9% 41.9% 41.9% 13.1 0.0 1.4 6.1 2.4 0.1 13.9
11-7 16.7% 34.2% 34.2% 13.4 0.4 3.0 2.2 0.1 11.0
10-8 9.2% 25.1% 25.1% 13.5 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.1 6.9
9-9 3.7% 18.4% 18.4% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 3.0
8-10 1.2% 17.5% 17.5% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
7-11 0.3% 12.3% 12.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 41.7% 41.7% 0.0% 12.9 58.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.1% 100.0% 11.9 0.2 22.1 68.8 9.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%