Preseason Rankings
Sun Belt
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
130 Troy 17.9%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 11 12 - 6 +2.1      -0.3 169 +2.4 108 65.9 237 0.0 1 0.0 1
132 James Madison 17.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 +2.0      +2.2 108 -0.2 171 63.3 303 0.0 1 0.0 1
137 Arkansas St. 17.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 6 +1.6      +0.6 147 +1.1 132 73.5 53 0.0 1 0.0 1
167 South Alabama 10.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 10 - 8 -0.7      -1.9 227 +1.2 129 60.3 353 0.0 1 0.0 1
185 Marshall 7.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 -1.8      -1.1 208 -0.6 190 70.6 108 0.0 1 0.0 1
195 Old Dominion 7.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 10 - 8 -2.2      -0.7 188 -1.4 217 65.6 248 0.0 1 0.0 1
197 Texas St. 6.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 9 -2.2      -1.0 199 -1.3 210 65.5 250 0.0 1 0.0 1
204 Appalachian St. 5.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -2.5      -4.5 303 +2.1 114 60.1 355 0.0 1 0.0 1
233 Louisiana 3.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 9 -3.9      -2.1 233 -1.8 233 65.8 242 0.0 1 0.0 1
243 Georgia Southern 2.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -4.5      -1.4 217 -3.1 276 72.7 62 0.0 1 0.0 1
274 Coastal Carolina 1.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -6.1      -2.0 231 -4.1 304 60.4 352 0.0 1 0.0 1
276 Southern Miss 1.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 11 -6.3      -3.8 286 -2.4 255 75.2 31 0.0 1 0.0 1
283 Georgia St. 1.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 11 -6.9      -2.5 244 -4.4 309 71.8 76 0.0 1 0.0 1
347 Louisiana Monroe 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 22 4 - 14 -12.0      -6.8 352 -5.2 328 69.1 143 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Troy 4.0 25.0 16.7 12.8 10.7 7.8 6.7 5.4 4.2 3.7 2.6 2.1 1.2 0.8 0.3
James Madison 4.2 22.5 16.6 12.8 9.8 8.5 7.0 5.9 4.7 3.9 3.3 2.2 1.5 1.0 0.3
Arkansas St. 4.1 24.2 15.9 12.9 10.1 8.6 7.1 5.6 4.3 3.5 3.0 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.4
South Alabama 5.6 11.3 11.7 10.6 10.7 10.0 9.1 7.9 7.2 6.1 5.2 4.2 3.3 1.7 1.0
Marshall 6.2 8.3 9.3 9.9 9.6 9.9 8.8 8.8 7.6 7.1 6.6 5.4 4.5 2.8 1.4
Old Dominion 6.4 8.2 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.1 8.8 8.1 7.5 6.4 5.5 4.9 3.5 1.7
Texas St. 6.7 7.4 7.6 8.5 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.6 8.2 8.1 7.5 6.6 5.1 3.7 2.1
Appalachian St. 6.5 7.3 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.2 8.7 8.6 8.1 7.6 6.8 6.1 4.9 3.8 1.8
Louisiana 7.6 4.0 5.1 6.4 7.4 8.4 8.3 9.0 9.2 9.6 8.7 7.9 7.3 5.3 3.4
Georgia Southern 8.1 3.6 4.6 5.8 6.1 6.8 7.5 8.2 8.5 9.0 8.9 9.4 9.0 7.9 4.7
Coastal Carolina 8.9 2.1 2.8 4.2 5.0 5.6 6.9 7.3 8.0 9.4 9.8 10.4 10.6 10.0 8.1
Southern Miss 9.3 1.7 2.5 3.4 4.2 5.2 6.1 6.9 8.0 8.9 9.6 11.4 11.9 11.3 9.0
Georgia St. 9.5 1.6 2.3 3.0 3.7 4.6 5.4 6.3 7.3 9.1 9.7 11.2 12.6 13.0 10.2
Louisiana Monroe 12.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.2 3.3 4.6 6.3 9.3 13.7 21.1 35.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Troy 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.3 3.8 5.1 7.3 9.1 10.9 12.5 12.2 12.0 10.2 7.2 3.8 1.2
James Madison 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.6 4.1 6.0 7.5 9.9 11.1 11.4 12.7 11.4 9.4 6.7 3.2 1.2
Arkansas St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.4 3.8 5.6 7.2 9.6 11.2 12.3 12.1 11.5 9.4 6.7 4.1 1.3
South Alabama 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.1 4.9 7.2 8.7 10.5 11.7 12.6 11.2 9.6 7.8 5.1 2.8 1.2 0.3
Marshall 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.6 6.5 8.2 10.2 11.4 11.7 11.5 10.1 8.4 5.9 3.6 2.2 0.8 0.2
Old Dominion 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.0 4.9 6.7 8.5 10.8 11.5 10.9 11.2 9.5 7.9 5.8 3.6 2.0 0.9 0.2
Texas St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.4 5.5 7.7 9.4 10.6 11.3 11.4 11.1 9.2 6.9 4.9 3.2 1.6 0.5 0.2
Appalachian St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.2 7.3 8.7 10.4 11.3 11.6 10.5 9.8 7.6 5.5 3.2 1.9 0.7 0.2
Louisiana 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.0 5.0 7.4 9.3 11.3 12.0 11.9 10.8 9.5 7.5 4.8 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
Georgia Southern 8 - 10 0.2 1.0 2.5 4.6 6.6 8.5 10.1 11.4 11.2 11.1 9.2 7.9 6.1 4.3 2.7 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
Coastal Carolina 7 - 11 0.5 2.0 3.8 6.3 8.4 9.9 11.4 11.6 11.5 9.5 8.1 6.3 4.6 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1
Southern Miss 7 - 11 0.7 2.2 4.4 7.1 9.4 11.4 11.9 11.5 10.9 9.4 7.6 5.4 3.6 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Georgia St. 7 - 11 0.8 2.5 5.2 8.1 10.3 11.6 12.1 11.5 10.3 8.7 6.4 5.0 3.4 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 4 - 14 4.9 10.8 14.4 16.1 14.8 12.0 9.6 6.8 4.4 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Troy 25.0% 16.5 6.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
James Madison 22.5% 14.5 6.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 24.2% 16.0 6.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0
South Alabama 11.3% 6.4 3.7 1.0 0.3 0.0
Marshall 8.3% 4.9 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Old Dominion 8.2% 4.6 2.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Texas St. 7.4% 4.1 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
Appalachian St. 7.3% 4.0 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
Louisiana 4.0% 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Southern 3.6% 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Coastal Carolina 2.1% 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.1
Southern Miss 1.7% 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.0
Georgia St. 1.6% 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Troy 17.9% 17.9% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.4 5.9 5.1 2.9 1.0 0.2 82.1 0.1%
James Madison 17.5% 17.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.4 5.9 5.1 2.7 0.9 0.1 82.5 0.1%
Arkansas St. 17.6% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 2.0 5.5 5.3 3.0 1.1 0.2 82.4 0.1%
South Alabama 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.5 2.8 2.7 1.0 0.3 89.9 0.0%
Marshall 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.2 2.1 1.1 0.3 92.5 0.0%
Old Dominion 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.4 93.0 0.0%
Texas St. 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.0 1.7 0.8 0.2 93.8 0.0%
Appalachian St. 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.2 94.1 0.0%
Louisiana 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.2 96.6 0.0%
Georgia Southern 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 97.2 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 98.4 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 98.5 0.0%
Georgia St. 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 98.9 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Troy 17.9% 0.1% 17.9% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 17.5% 0.1% 17.5% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 17.6% 0.1% 17.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 10.1% 0.1% 10.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 7.5% 0.1% 7.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 7.0% 0.2% 7.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 6.2% 0.1% 6.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 5.9% 0.0% 6.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 3.4% 0.1% 3.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 2.8% 0.1% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.6% 0.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.5% 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 1.1% 0.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 98.8 0.9
2nd Round 10.8% 0.1 89.2 10.8
Sweet Sixteen 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0