IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Texas St.
Sun Belt
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.2	#197
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.5	#250
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.0	#199

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.3	#210

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.2%	8.6%	4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.5	13.1	13.6

.500 or above	53.7%	69.1%	42.8%
.500 or above in Conference	60.2%	69.2%	53.8%
Conference Champion	7.4%	10.6%	5.1%
Last Place in Conference	4.0%	2.3%	5.2%

First Four	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
First Round	6.2%	8.6%	4.5%
Second Round	0.5%	0.7%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Bowling Green (Away) - 41.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	4 - 7	4 - 9
Quad 4	10 - 5	14 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	212	@ Bowling Green	L	70-72	41%
Nov 08, 2025	115	@ Tulane	L	66-75	21%
Nov 12, 2025	168	Texas San Antonio	W	74-73	55%
Nov 15, 2025	290	Texas Southern	W	74-66	77%
Nov 18, 2025	166	Abilene Christian	W	70-69	56%
Nov 21, 2025	162	Arkansas Little Rock	W	69-68	54%
Nov 28, 2025	121	Seattle	L	64-69	34%
Dec 03, 2025	172	@ Rice	L	66-70	36%
Dec 10, 2025	189	Southern	W	70-67	60%
Dec 17, 2025	137	Arkansas St.	L	71-72	47%
Dec 20, 2025	167	South Alabama	W	65-64	55%
Dec 31, 2025	130	@ Troy	L	64-71	26%
Jan 03, 2026	347	@ Louisiana Monroe	W	73-66	71%
Jan 08, 2026	276	@ Southern Miss	W	73-72	54%
Jan 10, 2026	137	@ Arkansas St.	L	68-75	28%
Jan 14, 2026	233	Louisiana	W	71-66	65%
Jan 17, 2026	276	Southern Miss	W	76-69	72%
Jan 22, 2026	274	@ Coastal Carolina	W	67-66	53%
Jan 24, 2026	132	@ James Madison	L	65-72	28%
Jan 28, 2026	185	Marshall	W	72-69	58%
Jan 31, 2026	195	Old Dominion	W	70-67	59%
Feb 04, 2026	243	@ Georgia Southern	L	72-73	48%
Feb 11, 2026	130	Troy	L	67-68	46%
Feb 14, 2026	347	Louisiana Monroe	W	76-63	85%
Feb 19, 2026	167	@ South Alabama	L	62-67	36%
Feb 21, 2026	233	@ Louisiana	L	68-69	46%
Feb 27, 2026	204	Appalachian St.	W	64-61	60%
Projected Record						14 - 13	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Sun Belt Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.9	1.9	2.2	1.5	0.5	0.2		7.4	1st
2nd												0.2	1.4	2.8	2.3	0.9	0.1				7.6	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.5	3.6	2.5	0.7	0.0					8.5	3rd
4th										0.1	1.0	4.1	3.1	0.7	0.0						9.0	4th
5th										0.6	3.6	3.8	0.9	0.0							8.9	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	2.7	4.4	1.3	0.1								8.8	6th
7th							0.0	0.2	1.9	4.4	2.0	0.2									8.6	7th
8th							0.1	1.0	4.0	2.7	0.4										8.2	8th
9th						0.0	0.7	3.3	3.3	0.7	0.0										8.1	9th
10th					0.0	0.5	2.5	3.5	1.0	0.0											7.5	10th
11th				0.0	0.4	1.9	3.1	1.2	0.1												6.6	11th
12th			0.0	0.3	1.2	2.3	1.2	0.1													5.1	12th
13th		0.0	0.3	1.0	1.4	0.8	0.2	0.0													3.7	13th
14th	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.7	0.3	0.1															2.1	14th

Total	0.1	0.3	0.9	1.9	3.4	5.5	7.7	9.4	10.6	11.3	11.4	11.1	9.2	6.9	4.9	3.2	1.6	0.5	0.2			Total

Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
17-1	100.0%	0.5		0.5	0.0
16-2	93.7%	1.5		1.2	0.3	0.0
15-3	70.0%	2.2		1.3	0.8	0.1
14-4	39.3%	1.9		0.8	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-5	12.8%	0.9		0.1	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	1.5%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	7.4%	7.4		4.1	2.2	0.7	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.2%		54.5%	54.5%		10.6							0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0					0.1
17-1	0.5%		49.3%	49.3%		11.8										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.3
16-2	1.6%		42.8%	42.4%	0.4%	12.2											0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0			0.9		0.8%
15-3	3.2%		34.7%	34.7%		12.8												0.0	0.4	0.5	0.2	0.0		2.1
14-4	4.9%		23.1%	23.1%		13.1												0.0	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.0		3.8
13-5	6.9%		17.2%	17.2%		13.7													0.1	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0	5.7
12-6	9.2%		9.2%	9.2%		14.1													0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	8.3
11-7	11.1%		4.3%	4.3%		15.5													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	10.6
10-8	11.4%		1.9%	1.9%		15.0														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	11.2
9-9	11.3%		1.1%	1.1%		17.4														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	11.1
8-10	10.6%		0.5%	0.5%		17.3															0.0	0.0	0.0	10.5
7-11	9.4%																							9.4
6-12	7.7%																							7.7
5-13	5.5%																							5.5
4-14	3.4%																							3.4
3-15	1.9%																							1.9
2-16	0.9%																							0.9
1-17	0.3%																							0.3
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		6.2%	6.2%	0.0%	13.5							0.0			0.0	0.0	0.3	1.3	2.0	1.7	0.8	0.2	93.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	10.5										50.0	50.0
Lose Out	0.0%