Preseason Rankings
Troy
Sun Belt
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#130
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.9#237
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#169
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#108
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.9% 23.7% 14.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.3 12.9
.500 or above 74.0% 86.6% 66.0%
.500 or above in Conference 86.4% 91.7% 82.9%
Conference Champion 25.0% 32.6% 20.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.4% 0.9%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round17.9% 23.6% 14.3%
Second Round2.5% 3.9% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Away) - 38.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 35 - 56 - 9
Quad 410 - 217 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 127   @ Kent St. L 65-68 39%    
  Nov 07, 2025 142   @ Furman L 67-69 42%    
  Nov 14, 2025 135   @ Loyola Marymount L 66-69 41%    
  Nov 16, 2025 176   @ Cal St. Northridge W 74-73 51%    
  Nov 18, 2025 35   @ San Diego St. L 58-72 9%    
  Nov 20, 2025 29   @ USC L 63-78 9%    
  Nov 24, 2025 196   Toledo W 75-71 64%    
  Dec 01, 2025 355   West Georgia W 79-60 95%    
  Dec 14, 2025 103   @ UAB L 69-75 31%    
  Dec 20, 2025 185   Marshall W 73-66 72%    
  Dec 31, 2025 197   Texas St. W 71-64 74%    
  Jan 03, 2026 167   South Alabama W 66-60 69%    
  Jan 07, 2026 137   @ Arkansas St. L 69-72 41%    
  Jan 10, 2026 233   @ Louisiana W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 14, 2026 276   Southern Miss W 77-66 83%    
  Jan 17, 2026 137   Arkansas St. W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 21, 2026 195   @ Old Dominion W 68-67 54%    
  Jan 24, 2026 243   @ Georgia Southern W 73-69 61%    
  Jan 29, 2026 132   James Madison W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 31, 2026 204   Appalachian St. W 65-57 74%    
  Feb 04, 2026 283   @ Georgia St. W 74-68 68%    
  Feb 11, 2026 197   @ Texas St. W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 14, 2026 276   @ Southern Miss W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 18, 2026 347   @ Louisiana Monroe W 74-63 82%    
  Feb 21, 2026 167   @ South Alabama L 62-63 50%    
  Feb 24, 2026 233   Louisiana W 72-63 77%    
  Feb 27, 2026 347   Louisiana Monroe W 77-60 92%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.6 4.5 7.1 6.6 3.7 1.2 25.0 1st
2nd 0.1 2.1 5.1 5.8 2.9 0.6 0.0 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 4.9 4.2 1.6 0.2 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.2 4.2 1.2 0.1 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.5 1.0 0.1 7.8 5th
6th 0.2 1.8 3.3 1.3 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.9 1.5 0.2 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.7 0.2 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.3 3.8 5.1 7.3 9.1 10.9 12.5 12.2 12.0 10.2 7.2 3.8 1.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
17-1 99.3% 3.7    3.6 0.1
16-2 91.1% 6.6    5.5 1.0 0.0
15-3 69.7% 7.1    4.3 2.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 37.5% 4.5    1.6 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.2% 1.6    0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.0% 25.0 16.5 6.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.2% 69.3% 65.9% 3.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 10.1%
17-1 3.8% 51.4% 51.0% 0.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.8%
16-2 7.2% 45.6% 45.4% 0.2% 12.1 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.7 0.2 3.9 0.4%
15-3 10.2% 37.1% 37.1% 12.5 0.4 1.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 6.4
14-4 12.0% 29.0% 29.0% 13.0 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.8 0.2 8.5
13-5 12.2% 16.8% 16.8% 13.3 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 10.1
12-6 12.5% 11.2% 11.2% 13.8 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 11.1
11-7 10.9% 6.9% 6.9% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 10.2
10-8 9.1% 3.0% 3.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.8
9-9 7.3% 1.3% 1.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2
8-10 5.1% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 5.1
7-11 3.8% 3.8
6-12 2.3% 2.3
5-13 1.4% 1.4
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 17.9% 17.9% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.4 5.9 5.1 2.9 1.0 0.2 82.1 0.1%