Preseason Rankings
Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.3#276
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.2#31
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#286
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#255
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.2% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.8 13.9
.500 or above 18.1% 25.8% 8.7%
.500 or above in Conference 30.6% 37.6% 22.0%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.4% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 14.8% 10.9% 19.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round1.5% 2.2% 0.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Away) - 55.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 62 - 12
Quad 48 - 610 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 337   @ Buffalo W 78-76 55%    
  Nov 09, 2025 71   @ South Carolina L 62-79 6%    
  Nov 13, 2025 284   @ Grambling St. L 67-69 42%    
  Nov 22, 2025 330   North Florida W 84-80 62%    
  Dec 03, 2025 148   @ Radford L 65-75 19%    
  Dec 06, 2025 55   @ Miami (FL) L 66-85 5%    
  Dec 08, 2025 284   Grambling St. W 70-66 62%    
  Dec 13, 2025 30   Mississippi L 64-84 4%    
  Dec 18, 2025 233   Louisiana W 73-72 52%    
  Dec 20, 2025 137   Arkansas St. L 74-79 33%    
  Dec 29, 2025 53   @ LSU L 65-85 5%    
  Jan 01, 2026 347   @ Louisiana Monroe W 75-72 58%    
  Jan 03, 2026 233   @ Louisiana L 70-75 32%    
  Jan 08, 2026 197   Texas St. L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 10, 2026 347   Louisiana Monroe W 78-69 76%    
  Jan 14, 2026 130   @ Troy L 66-77 17%    
  Jan 17, 2026 197   @ Texas St. L 69-76 28%    
  Jan 22, 2026 283   @ Georgia St. L 76-78 41%    
  Jan 24, 2026 274   @ Coastal Carolina L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 29, 2026 204   Appalachian St. L 65-66 47%    
  Jan 31, 2026 132   James Madison L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 04, 2026 185   @ Marshall L 71-79 26%    
  Feb 12, 2026 167   South Alabama L 66-69 41%    
  Feb 14, 2026 130   Troy L 69-74 33%    
  Feb 21, 2026 195   Old Dominion L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 24, 2026 137   @ Arkansas St. L 71-82 18%    
  Feb 27, 2026 167   @ South Alabama L 63-72 24%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.1 1.1 0.2 4.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.4 2.4 2.7 0.6 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 3.5 1.3 0.1 6.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 4.1 2.4 0.2 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.0 3.4 0.4 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.1 1.1 0.1 9.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 3.6 4.9 1.7 0.1 11.4 11th
12th 0.1 1.1 3.5 4.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 11.9 12th
13th 0.1 1.4 3.6 3.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 11.3 13th
14th 0.7 2.0 2.9 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.0 14th
Total 0.7 2.2 4.4 7.1 9.4 11.4 11.9 11.5 10.9 9.4 7.6 5.4 3.6 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 91.5% 0.3    0.2 0.1
15-3 76.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 40.6% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 31.9% 31.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.3% 31.9% 31.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.6% 27.5% 27.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-4 1.2% 22.9% 22.9% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
13-5 2.4% 12.9% 12.9% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.1
12-6 3.6% 6.8% 6.8% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.4
11-7 5.4% 2.2% 2.2% 15.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.3
10-8 7.6% 1.4% 1.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5
9-9 9.4% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3
8-10 10.9% 0.3% 0.3% 19.5 0.0 0.0 10.8
7-11 11.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.5
6-12 11.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.9
5-13 11.4% 11.4
4-14 9.4% 9.4
3-15 7.1% 7.1
2-16 4.4% 4.4
1-17 2.2% 2.2
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%